SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Floyd

[hurricanefloyd5]

where am i??????

im a T.C again oh brother!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah come on Floyd!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow he looks a heck of alot better...Nice outflow and cdo developing. Expect a cat2 soon.

[hurricanefloyd5]

you think i will be a cat.2 T.C.?????????????????

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Stronger then that in a few days!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

21/0233 UTC 12.3S 115.9E T3.0/3.0 FLOYD -- South Indian Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTXS21 PGTW 210230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/032051ZMAR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 116.0E TO 13.5S 113.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 115.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
116.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 115.9E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS
MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220230Z.//

I think its kind of funny that it is now a 45 knot cyclone. In here is the JTWC issueing a cyclone Alert.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing has formed a cdo with perfect banding. This sucker is likely to become very powerful storm. Hurricane Floyd is back!!!

[AussieMark]

IDW24000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:40 pm WST on Tuesday, 21 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Floyd [Severity Category 1] was located at 2pm WST Tuesday near
12.5S 116.0E, that is 905 kilometres northwest of Broome and moving southwest at
8 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is not expected to affect the coast within
the next 48 hours.

The next advice will be issued at 9pm Tuesday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:12S116E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0646UTC 21 MARCH 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twelve decimal five South [12.5S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero East [116.0E]
Recent movement : SW at 5 knots.
Maximum winds : 40 knots.
Central pressure : 988 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: Winds increasing to 45/50 knots by
22/0600UTC with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles: Winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

At 1800UTC 21 March: 12.8 south 115.2 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 22 March: 13.3 south 113.6 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300UTC 21 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210221Z MAR 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.8S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.2S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.6S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.9S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 19S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 210221Z MAR 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1259UTC 21 MARCH 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twelve decimal seven South [12.7S]
Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal zero East [115.0E]
Recent movement : SW at 5 knots.
Maximum winds : 45 knots.
Central pressure : 984 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: Winds increasing to 45/50 knots by
22/0000UTC with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles: Winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

At 0000UTC 22 March: 13.3 south 113.1 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 22 March: 13.6 south 111.5 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900UTC 21 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[P.K.]

Cat 2

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1822UTC 21 MARCH 2006

STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal one South [13.1S]
Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal two East [114.2E]
Recent movement : SW at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 50 knots.
Central pressure : 980 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Within 25 nautical miles of the centre: Clockwise winds 55/60 knots high seas
heavy swell.
Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: 50/55 knots with very rough to high seas
and moderate to heavy swell.
Within 90 nautical miles: Winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate
to heavy swell.

At 0600UTC 22 March: 13.8 south 112.4 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 22 March: 14.0 south 110.4 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100UTC 22 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.8S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.2S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.5S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 113.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH OF
BARROW ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 22 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal three South [13.3S]
Longitude one hundred and twelve decimal eight East [112.8E]
Recent movement : W at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 50 knots.
Central pressure : 980 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 50 knots near centre increasing to 70 knots by 23/0600UTC.
Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds increasing to above 64 knots with very
high seas and moderate to heavy swell developing by 23/0600UTC.
Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 80 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 1800UTC 22 March: 13.6 south 110.8 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 23 March: 13.7 south 108.9 east
Central pressure 962 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300UTC 22 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[jimvb]

Maybe Floyd will become as strong as he was in 1999.

That brings up this point. I thought the name "Floyd" was retired in 1999 after Floyd of that year produced severe flooding in North Carolina. I was surprised to see the name again. Is it because the first name of this storm is different - this is Cyclone Floyd rather than Hurricane Floyd? And therefore could there be a Typhoon Floyd later on?

[P.K.]

Floyd was only retired in the North Atlantic. There were two storms with the name Harvey last year for instance as well.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1245UTC 22 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal one South [13.1S]
Longitude one hundred and twelve decimal zero East [112.0E]
Recent movement : W at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 50 knots.
Central pressure : 975 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 50 knots near centre increasing to 65 knots by 23/0000UTC.
Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds increasing to above 64 knots with very
high seas and moderate to heavy swell developing by 23/0000UTC.
Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Within 80 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.

At 0000UTC 23 March: 13.1 south 110.4 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 23 March: 13.5 south 108.9 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900UTC 22 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[AussieMark]

Maybe Floyd will become as strong as he was in 1999.

That brings up this point. I thought the name "Floyd" was retired in 1999 after Floyd of that year produced severe flooding in North Carolina. I was surprised to see the name again. Is it because the first name of this storm is different - this is Cyclone Floyd rather than Hurricane Floyd? And therefore could there be a Typhoon Floyd later on?

Floyd of the Atlantic basin was retired

there have been years of same name being used in multiple basins

i.e in 1997

Hurricane Linda in Eastern Pacific reached 190 mph

Typhoon Linda killed hundreds in Indo-China (Vietnam and Laos primarily)

[HURAKAN]

Typhoon Floyd later on?

In 2000 the WPAC stopped using western names and now have a list of names from each country that is in the basin.

[jimvb]

You say basins, rather than first names. Does this mean there could be another Hurricane Floyd in the eastern Pacific, say off Mexico, or a Hurricane Linda in the Atlantic?