South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati (18P)

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Witi is moving westward...Also southwestly shear appears to be getting to it. The clouds to the southwest quad are flaten out...In the cimss shear maps show a 10 knot increase.

[Weatherfreak000]

Anyone have recent sats?

[SouthFloridawx]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She don't looks so good...I would say 40 to 45 knots.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1005 EST on Tuesday the 21st of March 2006

At 10am EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 975
hPa, was located about 750km east northeast of Mackay. It is moving towards the
west at 25 km per hour and should intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati is expected to maintain this track until Wednesday morning when it will
slow down and remain in offshore waters for the rest of the week. This will
produce gale force winds initially off the coast between Bowen and Fraser
Island. Large seas will develop along the southern coast during the week.

Next bulletin will be issued at 5pm today.

[AussieMark]

[AussieMark]

IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5:00pm EST on Tuesday the 21st of March 2006

At 4pm EST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 975
hPa, was located about 700km east-northeast of Mackay. It is moving towards the
west-southwest at 12 km per hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24
hours.

Wati is expected to maintain this track until Wednesday morning when it will
slow down and remain in offshore waters for the rest of the week. This may
produce gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and Fraser Island. Large
seas will develop along the southern coast during the week.

Next bulletin will be issued at 11pm today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nrl now says 65 knots...Which I think is a severe tropical cyclone or cat3 on the Aussie scale.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

975mb is a good-sized Cat1, maybe even a 2, on the SS scale, but 65kts is minimal hurricane strength.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this thing crosses 152 east its going to get interesting...In the upper level enviroment is getting faverable fast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sshte.html

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0724 UTC 21 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at
210600UTC near 17.8S 154.9E and moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position good.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 240nm of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and within 100nm in
remaining quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100nm of the cyclone, extending to 240nm in
the southwest quadrant within the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 60 knots
within 25 nm of the centre, increasing to 80 knots near the centre during the
next 24 hours.

Forecast positions:
Near 18.0S 153.5E at 211800UTC
Near 18.3S 152.7E at 220600UTC

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 211300 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[Weatherfreak000]

New Sat Pics?

[I'm Watching You]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11pm AEST on Tuesday the 21st of March 2006

At 10pm EST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 975
hPa, over the central Coral Sea.

Wati is positioned at 10pm near 17.5S 154.1E, which is about 660km northeast of
Mackay. Tropical Cyclone Wati is moving towards the west-northwest at 13 km per
hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati has slowed a little in the last few hours and in is expected to remain slow
moving in offshore waters for the rest of the week. The combination of this
system and a 1028 hPa high in the Tasman Sea is expected to produce strong to
gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and Fraser Island. Large seas will
develop along open waters of the southern and central coasts.

In the longer term the forecast track of Wati will be complicated by the
approach of an upper level system from the west. Depending on the strength of
this upper system Wati will either; be captured and move SE parallel to the
Queensland coast or remain slow moving until the upper system weakens and then
move slowly towards the Queensland coast over the later part of the weekend. The
upper level system and Wati will be closely monitored over the next few days
when the eventual track will be clearer.

[HURAKAN]

NOT BAD!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wati is forming a well defined eye on 85h data. Watch for a visible eye soon...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

IDQ20066
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 0500 EST on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2006

At 5am EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 3 with central
pressure 970 hPa, was centre over the central Coral Sea.

Wati is positioned at 5am near 17.4S 153.7E, which is about 630 km northeast of
Mackay. Tropical Cyclone Wati is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 km per
hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati is expected to remain slow moving in offshore waters for the rest of the
week. The combination of this system and a 1028 hPa high in the Tasman Sea is
expected to produce strong to gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and
Fraser Island. Large seas will develop along open waters of the southern and
central coasts.

The next bulletin will be issued at 11am Wednesday.

[Rod Hagen]

There is an awful lot of new , untried, development along this section of the coast. Many of the major towns (Rockhampton, Bundaberg etc etc) were actually developed some distance inland (presumably partly at least because of the potential for cyclone damage) , but the area has become very popular for resort development, retirement homes and the like in recent times, and most of the expansion has been right on the coast.

Its protected by the Barrier Reef to some extent, but I suspect that these conditions will give many places (and people) their first real "test".

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

Wati now seems to be heading south, travelling parallel to the central Qld coast, and intensifying.

Even if it stalls in this area but remains strong it has the potential to do a lot of sea damage to the Great Barrier Reef , and to extensive new development on the coastal strip and island resorts.

What are the chances of it sitting there, or moving slowly down the east coast? What are the chances of it changing direction again and heading west once more to make landfall? How long is it likely to stick around?

Its rather hard to pick which is the worse scenario if you know this bit of OZ!

Cheers

Rod

[AussieMark]

I do

once u get as far SOuth as Townsville there is a lot of tourism areas

a cyclone strike south Townsville or points further south could be bad on tourism industry

between Townsville and Mackay are the whitsunday islands

population
Townsville: 160,003 (largest city above tropic of capricorn)
Mackay: 78,700
Rockhampton: 59,120