South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati (18P)

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a severe TC.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0711 UTC 22 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 955 hectopascals centred at
220600UTC near 18.1S 153.7E and moving south-southwest at 4 knots. Position
good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 170nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semicircle and within 80nm in
the northern semicircle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 170nm of the cyclone in the southeast
quadrant, extending to the southern semicircle during the next 24 hours.
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 80nm of the cyclone otherwise.
Maximum winds to 85 knots within 25 nm of the centre, increasing to 95 knots
near the centre during the next 24 hours.

Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy east and southeast swells.

Forecast positions:
Near 18.4S 153.4E at 221800UTC
Near 18.8S 153.5E at 230600UTC

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 221200 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[WindRunner]

Not moving much as those coordinates and this map show, but still intensifying.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.9S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.7S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.2S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.0S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SIGNIFICANT
OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOVEMENT OF TC 18P HAS BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A RIDGE SITUATED
OVER VANUATU AND FIJI WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P WILL INCREASE AS OUTFLOW
IMPROVES, HOWEVER STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1238 UTC 22 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 955 hectopascals centred
at 1200 UTC at 18.0 south 153.9 east and near stationary. Position good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 170 nm in south-east sector, 110 nm in south-west sector and 80 nm in the
northern quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 170nm of the cyclone in the southeast
quadrant and 100 nm in the south-west sector expanding to 170 nm in the next 24
hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 80nm of the cyclone otherwise.

Maximum winds to 85 knots within 15 nm of the centre.

Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy east and southeast swells.


Forecast positions:

At 23 0000 UTC 18.3 S 153.8 E with central pressure 955 hPa

At 23 1200 UTC 18.8 S 154.1 E with central pressure 955 hPa


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 221900 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[Rod Hagen]

a cyclone strike south Townsville or points further south could be bad on tourism industry

between Townsville and Mackay are the whitsunday islands

population
Townsville: 160,003 (largest city above tropic of capricorn)
Mackay: 78,700
Rockhampton: 59,120

I guess my point Mark, is that a slow moving, cyclone heading south along this stretch of coast, even if some distance out to sea, could actually do as much damage as one making a landfall. I travel along parts of this stretch every few weeks, and the coastal strip is now settled over a very lengthy stretch. It currently looks as though everywhere from say Bowen to Noosa or even the Gold Coast could cop a dose as it moves along (rather like a cyclone moving along the east coast of the US in reasonably close proximity to the shore). Not as intense as a cyclone crossing the coast, of course, but with a very high probability of doing some damage to a lot more people.

Cheers

Rod

[SouthFloridawx]

is it possible for this thing to head to sydney. Aussiemark your gonna have storm pretty close to you soon!

[Weatherfreak000]

It'll likely move far out to sea or get sheared to death before impacting Sydney. But who knows I suppose.

[SouthFloridawx]

true I forgot about the shear south of 20 south.

[JPmia]

Rod,

How are the building codes down there? Do they have windloading requirements in their building codes along their coastline like we do in Florida?

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

It looks like a fairly classic recurver to me...I think Brisbane will have the best chance of seeing any impact, and even there, it's just going to be outer rainbands and ocean swells.

Who has a synoptic map? Is there a cold front moving through?

[P.K.]

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY00050.gif

Brisbane is about the worse place this could go.

[Weatherfreak000]

It looks like a fairly classic recurver to me...I think Brisbane will have the best chance of seeing any impact, and even there, it's just going to be outer rainbands and ocean swells.

Who has a synoptic map? Is there a cold front moving through?

Interesting, I was thinking the same thing myself. But of course I had that hunch with Ophelia and that didn't turn out well.


But hopefully this goes out to sea. I suppose Wati isn't gonna intensify that much now is it?

[AussieMark]

It looks like a fairly classic recurver to me...I think Brisbane will have the best chance of seeing any impact, and even there, it's just going to be outer rainbands and ocean swells.

Who has a synoptic map? Is there a cold front moving through?

Brisbane would be a terrible place for a cyclone

the SE QLD Coast has a population of around 2 Million+

[I'm Watching You]

[/quote]Who has a synoptic map? Is there a cold front moving through?[/quote]

There's an Upper Trough across NSW and Southern QLD. Causing in an increase in shear. It already gobbled up Larry and Wati is next on the list.

As i've been saying since Monday that Wati will eventually moved towards New Zealand.

Watch and Learn.

[Coredesat]

Bigtime shear south of 20S:



The shear is decreasing, but should still be quite strong by the time Wati encounters it.

[CHRISTY]

[Rod Hagen]

Rod,

How are the building codes down there? Do they have windloading requirements in their building codes along their coastline like we do in Florida?

Building codes concerning wind loading here are now generally pretty tough in areas seen as cyclone prone, and even pretty tight in areas which are not, but this cyclone is moving into territory where they are not usually expected.

Its really wave damage which worries me more than wind damage in this situation though. Its probably the older buildings that face the greatest threat from wind, but much of the new building has occured right on the water front (over a stretch of a thousand miles or more). In many cases beaches have already suffered serious erosion here as a result of over development, reducing the extent of any natural barrier, and much smaller storms than this one have resulted in some very serious wave created structural damage in years gone by. The further south it travels, the less protection the Barrier reef provides, too.

Its been a "fast growth" area that has attracted a lot of questionable , get rich quick, developers who have probably not actually played by the rules, too.

I don't think southern Queensland will come out of this unscathed, even if the cyclone stays a fair way off the coast.

Rod

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0637 UTC 23 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals centred
at 0600 UTC at 19.4 south 155.5 east and moving southeast at 10 knots. Position
good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nm of the cyclone but extending out to 360 nm in the southwestern
quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 60 nm of the
centre, and 64/75 knots within 30 nm of the centre.

Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy swells.


Forecast positions:

At 23 1800 UTC 20.4 S 156.3 E with central pressure 960 hPa

At 24 0600 UTC 21.8 S 157.6 E with central pressure 960 hPa


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[P.K.]

Down 10hPa, winds up by 10kts.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1845 UTC 23 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 950 hectopascals was
centred at 1800 UTC near 20.3 south 157.1 east moving south southeast at 7
knots. Position good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180 nm in Northwest quadrant and 240nm in remaining quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots increasing to 45/63 knots within 60 nm of the centre
and to 64/85 knots within 30 nm of the centre.
Seas high to phenomenal with heavy swells.

Forecast Positions

At 24 0600 UTC 21.7 S 158.2 E with central pressure 950 hPa

At 24 1800 UTC 23.8 S 159.5 E with central pressure 955 hPa

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued at 2400000 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[Coredesat]

Looks like there's some dry air: