SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

#1 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 12:17 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Wednesday 22 March 2006

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1003 hPa is situated in the JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF.
At 11am it was near latitude 14.3S, longitude 128.5E, about 100 km west of Port
Keats. The LOW is expected to move slowly west.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Thursday: low,
Friday: low,
Saturday: moderate.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

#2 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 12:18 pm

Interesting...

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 1:18 pm

LOOKING NICE EVEN THAT IT'S LOCATED MOSTLY OVER LAND!

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 1:18 pm

Is that old larry ?

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 1:28 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Is that old larry ?

I think Darwin Weather Service has been talking about this low for some days now, and if you see the map below, the 1002 mb low I think is Larry and the other low, 1000 mb, is the one is question now.

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 1:29 pm

Interesting... things are heating up at the end of season for them.

#7 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 3:21 pm

That synoptic chart has updated and only the 1000hPa low remains.

MiamiensisWx · #8 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Mar 22, 2006 3:24 pm

More imagery...

#9 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 4:50 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 12:45 pm CST Thursday 23 March 2006

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1000 hPa is situated in the JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF.
At 11am it was near latitude 14.0S, longitude 128.3E, about 130 km west of Port
Keats and 165 km north of Wyndham. The LOW is expected to remain slow moving and
gradually deepen during the next few days.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Friday: low,
Saturday: moderate,
Sunday: high.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 4:55 am

So they think it has a high chance of being a cyclone?

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 7:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:So they think it has a high chance of being a cyclone?

Yes, but now the system doesn't look as good as it did yesterday at about this time.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 3:23 pm

IT HAS BLOSSOMED ONCE AGAIN!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #13 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 3:26 pm

While its over land it has no chance...

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 3:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:While its over land it has no chance...

Although that's true, if the system is blossoming over land when it gets fully over water we could have soemthing in our hands to track!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #15 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 3:56 pm

When will it move off?

#16 Postby **alicia-w** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 3:58 pm

havent they had enough already?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 4:04 pm

If it forms it forms...Nothing anybody can say or do about it.

#18 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 5:58 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:12 am CST [6:42 am WST] Friday 24 March 2006

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal communities between DALY RIVER
MOUTH in the Northern Territory and KALUMBURU in Western Australia, including
PORT KEATS.

At 7 am CST [5.30am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 80
kilometres east northeast of WYNDHAM and 135 kilometres south southwest of PORT
KEATS, slow moving. The low is expected to move towards the north or northwest
later today or tomorrow, over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales
could develop later.

Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology Perth for more information.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 7 am CST [5.30am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 128.8 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slow moving
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

People between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU should listen for the next advice
which will be issued at 11 am CST [9.30 am WST]

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Coredesat · #19 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 8:56 pm

Convection seems to be diminishing as of late. This thing just does not want to move.

HurricaneHunter914 · #20 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Mar 23, 2006 10:37 pm

It is slowly moving away from land I think it is going to bloom like it's Siblings Larry, Wati, and Floyd but it may do what african storms do when they move off shore into the Atlantic(diminish).

SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

Who is online