South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati (18P)

[SouthFloridawx]

the swells on the coast must be an awesome site.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Nobody's mentioned this yet, but...any Kiwis reading this need to know that New Zealand has a pretty good chance of getting hit by a powerful extratropical storm in a few days. (kinda analogous to storms hitting the Canadian Maritimes in our own basin)

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0125 UTC 24 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 955 hectopascals was
centred at 0000 UTC near 20.9 south 158.5 east moving southeast at 14 knots.
Position good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm in Northwest quadrant and 220nm in remaining quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 40 nm of the
centre in the northwest quadrant, and 100 nm in remaining quadrants. Winds
reaching 64/80 knots within 35 nm of the centre.

Seas high to phenomenal with heavy swells.

Forecast Positions

At 24 1200 UTC 23.2 S 160.1 E with central pressure 955 hPa

At 25 0000 UTC 25.7 S 161.3 E with central pressure 955 hPa

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued at 240600 UTC.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0658 UTC 24 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals was
centred at 0600 UTC near 22.8 south 159.8 east moving south-southeast at 25
knots. Position good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nm in Northwest quadrant and 220nm in remaining quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 40 nm of the
centre in the northwest quadrant, and 100 nm in remaining quadrants. Winds
reaching 64/75 knots within 35 nm of the centre.

Seas high to phenomenal with heavy swells. Exceptionally high waves may be
generated within 150 nm of the centre in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone
as the system accelerates to the SSE.

Forecast Positions

At 24 1800 UTC 25.0 S 161.1 E with central pressure 970 hPa

At 25 0600 UTC 27.7 S 162.9 E with central pressure 970 hPa

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
Next warning will be issued at 241200 UTC.
WEATHER BRISBANE

[I'm Watching You]

http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=3

For those who is interested that site is about a astrometeologist who predicts weather in the future by using the moon and gravitational push or something.

By the way looks like Wati is beginning it's extropical transition or been doing so in the last few hours.

It almost moved due east from the previous update.

[Coredesat]

Almost extratropical. Some convection is barely hanging on near the center.

[P.K.]

It has moved south of 25S and east of 160E so it will now in New Zealand's AOR.

PAN PAN
1 CORRECTED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1833 UTC 24 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 965 hectopascals was
centred at 1800 UTC near 25.0 south 161.5 east moving southeast at 16 knots.
Position fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nm in Northwest quadrant, 200nm in the Northeast Quadrant and 300nm
in remaining quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 80 nm of the
centre, extending 150 nm in the southwest quadrant. Winds reaching 64/75 knots
within 30 nm of the centre.

Phenomenal seas with heavy swells.

Forecast Positions

At 25 0600 UTC 27.9 S 163.1 E with central pressure 960 hPa

At 25 1800 UTC 31.3 S 164.3 E with central pressure 960 hPa

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61 7 32200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[P.K.]

Slightly out of date but the FMS did issue an advisory as well earlier.

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 24/1351 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati [960hPa] centre was located near 24.0 South
160.9 East at 241200 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT IR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving southeast 16 knots. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre estimated at 75 knots. Expect winds
over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 150
miles of centre in the southwest quadrant and within 80 miles of
centre elsewhere. Expect winds over 33 knots within 80 miles of
centre in northwest quadrant, within 200 miles of centre in northeast
quadrant and within 300 miles of centre in remaining quadrants.

Dvorak analysis yields T3.5/4.5/W1.0/24hrs. Wati is undergoing
extra-tropical transition in response to an amplifying midlatitude
250 hPa trough to the west. Cloud tops have warmed and sheared to the
southeast of the LLCC. Vertical wind shear is more than 25 knots over
Wati. Increasing environmental shear further south, cooler SSTs and
dry air wrapping into the system are expected to further weaken the
cyclone. Consensus of available global models agree on a
soouthsoutheast track.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 26.8S 162.0E mov SSE 16kt with 75kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 29.2S 163.4E mov SSE 15kt with 75kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 32.8S 164.5E mov SSE 15kt with 60kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 34.7S 165.2E mov SSE 15kt with 55kt
close to centre.

This is the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone
Wati as it is moving into Wellington's area of responsibility.

[HURAKAN]

24/2033 UTC 25.7S 161.9E EXTRATROPICAL WATI -- South Pacific Ocean


WATI = WAS A TROPICAL INDIVIDUAL!

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 25.3S 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.6S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 162.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A
241603Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET.



HASTA LA VISTA, BABY!

[P.K.]

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1138hrs 25-Mar-2006

RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHLAND

MetService forecasters are carefully monitoring the progress of
Tropical Cyclone Wati which is currently about 1300 kilometres
northwest of Cape Reinga and moving southsoutheast at about 30 km/h.
The remnants of Wati are likely to move onto the central North Tasman
Sea during Sunday and then slow up to lie about 600 kilometres west
of the North Island on Monday.
By that time it will no longer be a tropical cyclone but should still
remain as a fairly deep depression with the North Island on its
eastern fringes.
A warm front ahead of the depression is forecast to spread rain over
Northland during Sunday preceded by easterly gales.
Initially the rain is unlikely to be particularly heavy but from late
on Sunday some heavy thundery falls may spread onto northern parts of
Northland, then spread farther south on Monday morning.
MetService advises people in the area to stay up to date with the
latest forecasts and warnings as the situation could change as new
data comes to hand.

This Watch will be reviewed by 11am Sunday 26 March 2006
Forecast prepared by: Bob Lake

[CHRISTY]

NITE - NITE MR WATI OR SHOULD I SAY MISS WATI!

[P.K.]

Pressure is up to 970hPa.

WHNZ41 NZKL 250144
HURRICANE WARNING 352
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI [970HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8 SOUTH 162
.
2 EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.8S 162.2E AT 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 65 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE,
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.5S 163.0E AT 251200 UTC
AND NEAR 33.0S 164.0E AT 260000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 351.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You can barely tell if it was a cyclone.

[P.K.]

STORM WARNING 360

This affects ocean area/s: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES

AT 250600UTC

Low 988hPa formerly cyclone Wati, near 28.4S 163.3E moving southeast
18kt.
1. Within 120 miles of low in a sector northeast through south to
northwest: Clockwise 50kt.
2. Outside area 1 and within 240 miles of low in sector southwest
through north to east: Clockwise 40kt.
3. Outside area 1 and within 360 miles of low in sector east through
south to southwest: Clockwise 40kt. Area expanding to within 540
miles of low next 3-6 hours.
Areas of storm and gale moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 352.