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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006
.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 12Z SAT OVR N TX...AS SFC HI PRES SETTLES IN. S/W ON
SATL MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN MEX ATTM MAY SHED SOME SCT CI OVR N
TX LT TDY. NW FLO ARND 10 KTS THRU 23Z...THEN LGT/VRB OR CALM AFT
00Z SAT...AS SFC HI CONTS MVG TWD LWR MS VLY LTR ON SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST FRI MAR 24 2006/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SO
FAR THIS MORNING. THE METROPLEX IS CURRENTLY HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE MORE RURAL AREAS ARE IN THE 28-32 DEGREE RANGE.
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BY MID MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED. RETURN FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY...AND BY MONDAY PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH
OR MORE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH (INTO
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA)...AND IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY JUST GET
BRUSHED WITH THE TAIL END OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA... AND THE GFS HAVING THE
CENTER OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A HUGE AREA OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE.
REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT...ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
WERE INCLUDED FOR THIS EVENT.