If it moves offshore north of Learmonth, it will track out over warm water and would very likely develop. South of Learmonth, we have cooler waters which would inhibit development.
Steve
SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Friday 24 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH is has been extended west to KURI BAY, and is now current for
coastal communities between PORT KEATS in the Northern Territory and KURI BAY in
Western Australia, including WYNDHAM and KALUMBURU.
The CYCLONE WATCH between DALY RIVER MOUTH and PORT KEATS has been cancelled.
At 4 pm CST [2.30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 65
kilometres northeast of WYNDHAM and 140 kilometres southwest of PORT KEATS,
and is slow moving. The low is expected to move towards the north or northwest
overnight or tomorrow, and may move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales
could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology Perth for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4 pm CST [2.30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 128.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slow moving
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
People between PORT KEATS and KURI BAY should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 11 pm CST [9.30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Friday 24 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH is has been extended west to KURI BAY, and is now current for
coastal communities between PORT KEATS in the Northern Territory and KURI BAY in
Western Australia, including WYNDHAM and KALUMBURU.
The CYCLONE WATCH between DALY RIVER MOUTH and PORT KEATS has been cancelled.
At 4 pm CST [2.30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 65
kilometres northeast of WYNDHAM and 140 kilometres southwest of PORT KEATS,
and is slow moving. The low is expected to move towards the north or northwest
overnight or tomorrow, and may move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales
could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology Perth for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4 pm CST [2.30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 128.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slow moving
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
People between PORT KEATS and KURI BAY should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 11 pm CST [9.30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal communities between PORT KEATS in the
Northern Territory and KURI BAY in Western Australia, including WYNDHAM and
KALUMBURU.
At 4 am CST [2:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 80
kilometres north northeast of WYNDHAM and 135 kilometres west southwest of PORT
KEATS, slow moving. The low is expected to move slowly towards the north or
northwest today and may move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4 am CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 128.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slow moving
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
People between PORT KEATS and KURI BAY should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 11 am CST [9:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST [3:30 am WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal communities between PORT KEATS in the
Northern Territory and KURI BAY in Western Australia, including WYNDHAM and
KALUMBURU.
At 4 am CST [2:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 80
kilometres north northeast of WYNDHAM and 135 kilometres west southwest of PORT
KEATS, slow moving. The low is expected to move slowly towards the north or
northwest today and may move over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4 am CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 128.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 40 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slow moving
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals
People between PORT KEATS and KURI BAY should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 11 am CST [9:30 am WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
The CYCLONE WATCH has been extended west to CAPE LEVEQUE, and is now current for
coastal communities between the NT/WA BORDER and CAPE LEVEQUE in Western
Australia, including KALUMBURU and DERBY.
The CYCLONE WATCH between PORT KEATS and the NT/WA BORDER has been cancelled.
At 10 am CST [8:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 75
kilometres north northwest of WYNDHAM and 145 kilometres east southeast of
KALUMBURU, moving west at 10km/h parallel to the coast. The low is expected to
move slowly towards the northwest or west today and may move over the Joseph
Bonaparte Gulf.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 10 am CST [8:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.9 degrees South 127.8 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People between the NT/WA BORDER and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the next
advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST [3:30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Pressure 1 mb up, moving to the west at 10 km/h or 6 mph.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [9:30 am WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
The CYCLONE WATCH has been extended west to CAPE LEVEQUE, and is now current for
coastal communities between the NT/WA BORDER and CAPE LEVEQUE in Western
Australia, including KALUMBURU and DERBY.
The CYCLONE WATCH between PORT KEATS and the NT/WA BORDER has been cancelled.
At 10 am CST [8:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred on the coast about 75
kilometres north northwest of WYNDHAM and 145 kilometres east southeast of
KALUMBURU, moving west at 10km/h parallel to the coast. The low is expected to
move slowly towards the northwest or west today and may move over the Joseph
Bonaparte Gulf.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 10 am CST [8:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.9 degrees South 127.8 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People between the NT/WA BORDER and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the next
advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST [3:30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Pressure 1 mb up, moving to the west at 10 km/h or 6 mph.
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-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
-
I'm Watching You
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:31 pm
- Location: US-tralia QLD
Late January this year. There was a Tropical Low that was over land in western Northern Territory >> Australia and it stayed in the same position in a week. All the models expected for it to weaken and move west but it just stayed there and got deeper and deeper. If i recall the lowest pressure for this Tropical Low was 987hpa 
and had winds around close to the centre in the mid range Catergory 1 Cyclone if you use the Australian Model. By the end of it's life it looked more like a weakening Catergory 3 storm you can even see it's eye. I don't know but this particular system was intrigueing to say the least. I would like to further research this system.
and had winds around close to the centre in the mid range Catergory 1 Cyclone if you use the Australian Model. By the end of it's life it looked more like a weakening Catergory 3 storm you can even see it's eye. I don't know but this particular system was intrigueing to say the least. I would like to further research this system.
0 likes
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
I'm Watching You
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:31 pm
- Location: US-tralia QLD
-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal communities between WYNDHAM and CAPE
LEVEQUE in Western Australia, including KALUMBURU and KURI BAY.
The CYCLONE WATCH between WYNDHAM and the NT/WA BORDER has been cancelled.
At 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred near the coast about 95
kilometres northwest of WYNDHAM and 120 kilometres east southeast of KALUMBURU,
moving west at 10km/h. The low is expected to continue moving slowly towards the
west or northwest, and may move over the Timor Sea.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing, but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 127.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People between WYNDHAM and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 11 pm CST [9:30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal communities between WYNDHAM and CAPE
LEVEQUE in Western Australia, including KALUMBURU and KURI BAY.
The CYCLONE WATCH between WYNDHAM and the NT/WA BORDER has been cancelled.
At 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred near the coast about 95
kilometres northwest of WYNDHAM and 120 kilometres east southeast of KALUMBURU,
moving west at 10km/h. The low is expected to continue moving slowly towards the
west or northwest, and may move over the Timor Sea.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing, but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 127.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People between WYNDHAM and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 11 pm CST [9:30 pm WST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1S 127.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC FLARE OF DEEP CONVEC-
TION JUST INLAND OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SYNOPTIC AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 242100Z AND 250000Z VERIFY
AN INLAND CIRCULATION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM FROM THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS SUPERPOSED BY A RIDGE
AXIS AND REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS,
AND THE CIRCULATION HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SINCE THE LLCC IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST INLAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG-
NIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC FLARE OF DEEP CONVEC-
TION JUST INLAND OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SYNOPTIC AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 242100Z AND 250000Z VERIFY
AN INLAND CIRCULATION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM FROM THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS SUPERPOSED BY A RIDGE
AXIS AND REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS,
AND THE CIRCULATION HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SINCE THE LLCC IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST INLAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG-
NIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [9:30 pm WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal communities between WYNDHAM and CAPE
LEVEQUE in Western Australia, including KALUMBURU and KURI BAY.
At 8:30 pm WST [10 pm CST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred over land about 130
kilometres northwest of WYNDHAM and 80 kilometres east southeast of KALUMBURU,
moving west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue
moving slowly towards the west or northwest, and may move into the Indian Ocean
on Sunday or Monday.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing, but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 8:30 pm WST [10 pm CST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 127.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 7 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People between WYNDHAM and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 3:30 am WST [5 am CST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
"CAN SOMEONE LEAD THIS SYSTEM TO THE OCEAN," THANK YOU!
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [9:30 pm WST] Saturday 25 March 2006
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal communities between WYNDHAM and CAPE
LEVEQUE in Western Australia, including KALUMBURU and KURI BAY.
At 8:30 pm WST [10 pm CST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred over land about 130
kilometres northwest of WYNDHAM and 80 kilometres east southeast of KALUMBURU,
moving west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue
moving slowly towards the west or northwest, and may move into the Indian Ocean
on Sunday or Monday.
There is the possibility of a cyclone developing, but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However gales could develop later.
Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 8:30 pm WST [10 pm CST]:
. Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 127.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 7 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
People between WYNDHAM and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the next advice which
will be issued at 3:30 am WST [5 am CST].
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
"CAN SOMEONE LEAD THIS SYSTEM TO THE OCEAN," THANK YOU!
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