SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

#42 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:10 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:31 am CST [7:01 am WST] Sunday 26 March 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities between
MITCHELL PLATEAU and CAPE LEVEQUE, not including DERBY.

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal communities between CAPE LEVEQUE and
BROOME, including DERBY.

The CYCLONE WATCH between WYNDHAM and MITCHELL PLATEAU has been cancelled.

At 5:30 am WST [7 am CST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred over land about 40
kilometres southeast of MITCHELL PLATEAU, 235 kilometres west northwest of
WYNDHAM and 360 kilometres northeast of DERBY, moving west at 20 kilometres per
hour. The low is expected to move towards the west or southwest, into the Indian
Ocean and may develop into a tropical cyclone tonight or early Monday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the coast
between MITCHELL PLATEAU and CAPE LEVEQUE tonight or early Monday. GALES may
extend further southwest along the coast to DERBY and BROOME later on Monday or
early Tuesday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between MITCHELL PLATEAU and CAPE LEVEQUE
tonight and Monday.

Widespread heavy rain is expected to continue during the next few days in the
north and east Kimberley. Refer to flood warnings issued from the Bureau of
Meteorology, Perth, for more information.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 5:30 am WST [7 am CST]:
. Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING has been declared between MITCHELL PLATEAU and
CAPE LEVEQUE not including DERBY. A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to DERBY
and BROOME.

People between MITCHELL PLATEAU WYNDHAM and CAPE LEVEQUE should listen for the
next advice which will be issued at 9:30 am WST [11 am CST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#43 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:12 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:1:24:15S126E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 2230 UTC 25 MARCH 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 2100 UTC Tropical Low 998 hPa centred within 15 nautical miles of 15.0 S
126.0 E moving WEST at 10 knots. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in
the next 12-24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/25 knots expected to increase to 30/35 knots within 12-24
hours. Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.

0900 UTC 26 Mar: centre within 35 nautical miles of 15.0 S 124.6 E.
994 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre.
2100 UTC 26 Mar: centre within 50 nautical miles of 15.1 S 123.8 E.
990 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#44 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:29 pm

Very unusual for a 2100 GMT advisory from the BoM!

#45 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:33 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S 127.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THE
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
SINCE THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

#46 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:34 pm

that one at 21.0 and 126 looks more organised than floyd.
is that the remnance of larry?

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:35 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued.

#48 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:58 pm

fact789 wrote:that one at 21.0 and 126 looks more organised than floyd.
is that the remnance of larry?

NO, IT'S THE SAME SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR DAY NOW. LARRY IS HISTORY, PERIOD!!!!

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

WTXS21 PGTW 252300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/252251ZMAR2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 126.5E TO 15.4S 123.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. RADAR DATA AT 252100Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 126.0E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 127.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING CON-
VECTION WRAPPING INWARD TOWARD A WELL-DEVELOPED, INLAND LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). WYNDHAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES PLACE THE LLCC ABOUT 50 NM FROM THE COAST, AND THE
OVERALL MOTION CONTINUES AS A WESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DE-
PICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE DISTURBANCE, PROVIDING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. SINCE THE LLCC IS APPROACHING THE
COASTLINE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 262300Z.

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:03 pm

P.K I edited the title of thread.

Weatherfreak000 · #50 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:06 pm

Geez it looks almost like it has a eye-like feature while it's entire life has been spent over land. That is just nothing short of remarkable.

#51 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:06 pm

Doesn't matter what the JTWC say though, the BoM do the advisories. :wink:

George is next I think.

AussieMark · #52 Postby **AussieMark** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:10 pm

yes the BOM is the official agency for the areas around australia

when it comes down to it. its what they say that matters

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:14 pm

So P.K and AussieMark that Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert from JTWC is not official?

#54 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:15 pm

Anything from the JTWC is not official. :wink:

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:18 pm

Let's wait then for the advisories from BOM.That is the battle of the different agencies in that part of the world.

#56 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:35 pm

The battle is more fierce in the WPAC were you have an uncountable of agencies speaking at the same time. But for the sake of truthness, JMA is the official organization.

#57 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:58 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0700 UTC 26 MARCH 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Low 998 hPa centred within 30 nautical miles of 15.1 S
125.0 E moving WEST at 8 knots. The low is expected to develop into a tropical
cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre may increase to 50 knots within 18-24 hours.
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots increasing to 30/40 knots within 6-12 hours.
Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.

1800 UTC 26 Mar: centre within 50 nautical miles of 15.0 S 124.1 E.
990 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.
0600 UTC 27 Mar: centre within 65 nautical miles of 15.3 S 123.3 E.
985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#58 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:25 am

Down 2 hPa.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1330 UTC 26 MARCH 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Low 996 hPa centred within 30 nautical miles of 15.4 S
124.9 E moving WESTSOUTHWEST at 4 knots. The low is expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone within the next 12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds near centre may increase to 50 knots within 18 to 24 hours.
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots expected to increase to 30/40 knots within the next
12 hours. Rough to very rough seas and rising swell.

0000 UTC 27 Mar: centre within 50 nautical miles of 15.5 S 124.0 E.
990 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.
1200 UTC 27 Mar: centre within 65 nautical miles of 15.7 S 123.1 E.
985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

The next warning will be issued by Weather BRISBANE/PERTH.

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#59 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:09 pm

26/1333 UTC 15.4S 124.6E T2.5/2.5 97S -- South Indian Ocean

A TROPICAL CYCLONE?!

Weatherfreak000 · #60 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:28 pm

Any recent sat pics?

SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

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