Need Help With This Surge Map...

[Ixolib]

In looking at the surge map for Pinellas County, FL, (below) I am wondering about a few things. Hopefully, y'all might offer some insight??

1. What do you think the "gray" color indicates? It's not listed on the key.

2. Why is there no identification for surge from a tropical storm (green)?

3. On the "west" side of Tampa Bay, at the foot of the the Courtney Campbell Bridge, it looks as if even a CAT 5 surge won't impact that area. Can that be true?

4. Can it be true that so much of the county (tan color) would be high and dry, even in a CAT 5?

Is it just me, or does this map seem to be incomplete in some ways???

Reason I'm asking is that I will soon be a resident there and recent history tells me it's pretty important to know the topography of the area.

Thanks...

[gatorcane]

Refer to this official site for surge information for Pinellas County:

http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/Local.htm

Hope this helps. As you can see Tampa Bay is a very vulnerable area to surge...but ironically many areas of Pinellas County are well above sea level. A CAT 5 hit could really reshape the county.

Here are the surge effects by storm category.

[Ixolib]

Thanks, Chris - Appreciate it...

[wxman57]

First of all, I'd caution you that those surge maps are made for average sized hurricanes. A larger hurricane like Ivan, Rita, or Katrina that hits as a Cat 3 would produce a storm surge equal to or greater than what might be expected from an average-sized Cat 5. It's the size of the wind field that makes the surge, not the peak wind in a small area of the hurricane. That said, here's another image with surge height markers. Yes, there are some areas inland of Clearwater that would be above the surge zone.

[milankovitch]

Wxman what category/size hurricane does that surge map correspond to?

[Ixolib]

First of all, I'd caution you that those surge maps are made for average sized hurricanes. A larger hurricane like Ivan, Rita, or Katrina that hits as a Cat 3 would produce a storm surge equal to or greater than what might be expected from an average-sized Cat 5. It's the size of the wind field that makes the surge, not the peak wind in a small area of the hurricane. That said, here's another image with surge height markers. Yes, there are some areas inland of Clearwater that would be above the surge zone.

Great info - and great map. Thanks!

Your points are quite valid - as evidenced with the three examples you provided. My plan is to use the three maps posted thus far - and any others that might become available - to make a cross-comparison. If they all agree that "Point A" is higher than "Point B", then I'm hopeful I'll be able to draw a reasonable conclusion on the highest point in the area. Wherever that is is where we're gonna store our "stuff" until we find a permanent place to live - which, BTW, will hopefully be near or on the highest point as well!!

[JonathanBelles]

In looking at the surge map for Pinellas County, FL, (below) I am wondering about a few things. Hopefully, y'all might offer some insight??

1. What do you think the "gray" color indicates? It's not listed on the key.

2. Why is there no identification for surge from a tropical storm (green)?

3. On the "west" side of Tampa Bay, at the foot of the the Courtney Campbell Bridge, it looks as if even a CAT 5 surge won't impact that area. Can that be true?

4. Can it be true that so much of the county (tan color) would be high and dry, even in a CAT 5?

Is it just me, or does this map seem to be incomplete in some ways???

Reason I'm asking is that I will soon be a resident there and recent history tells me it's pretty important to know the topography of the area.

Thanks...

1. gray is the green or TS surge
3. yes
4. yes

[wxmann_91]

St. Petersburg doesn't look to bad but the surge will funnel right into downtown Tampa.

[Ixolib]

1. gray is the green or TS surge
3. yes
4. yes

Thanks, Fact. Just seems amazing, with all the water everywhere, that the entire county wouldn't go under!! I mean, it's surrounded on three sides, then add the canals and ICW into the mix!!

[gatorcane]

The entire county would not go under. Much of the central and northern parts of the county are well above sea level (as high as 90ft+) in parts of the Countryside area in Clearwater.

[MGC]

Looking for higher ground there Ixolib? Don't blame you....good luck.....MGC

[wxman57]

Wxman what category/size hurricane does that surge map correspond to?

That was for a Cat 5. However, the SLOSH model under-forecast the surge from Katrina as a Cat 3 because that model uses average sized storms as the basis for calculating surge height. You can create a .rex file with the true storm diameter, but it's not that easy. So the map I posted would be valid with a lager-than-average Cat 3.

[tornadotony]

OK, let's play devil's advocate here. What would a storm about Floyd's size and Rita's strength coming from about a 60° angle to the coast do to Tampa/St. Pete? I only ask because it's entirely plausible that it could happen.

[Ixolib]

Looking for higher ground there Ixolib? Don't blame you....good luck.....MGC