SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

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AussieMark
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#81 Postby AussieMark » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:31 am

Image
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Weatherfreak000

#82 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:49 am

Wow! It looks like a Wilma/Gilbert/Mitch scenario with the SST's. I suppose shear is minimal in that area? How strong is Glenda forecasted to become?
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Coredesat

#83 Postby Coredesat » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:44 am

Shear tendency:

Image

Favorable upper-level winds for now, but there's a ton of shear just south of 20S, and increasing shear to the west.
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Coredesat

#84 Postby Coredesat » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:16 pm

WWIO21 KNES 271417
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN MTSAT IRNITE
.
MARCH 27 2006 1333Z
.
15.8S 122.70E T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS GLENDA (20S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....15.0S 124.1E 27/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
15.4S 126.6E 26/1333Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....DT=4.5 BASED ON LG SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH LG
EYE. PT=4.0. MET=4.0 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM.

Image
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#85 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:39 pm

Wow!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#86 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:43 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 2:40 am WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for a CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE for coastal and island
areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to
Dampier.

At 2am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be
120 kilometres north northwest of Cape Leveque and
260 kilometres north of Broome
and was moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal parts
between Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay until early morning. The cyclone is expected
to move roughly parallel to the coast in the next few days and intensify
further. Should the cyclone move closer to the coast than expected, gales with
gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may extend south to Bidyadanga during Tuesday
and then south to Dampier during Wednesday or the early hours of Thursday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the Kimberley with heavy falls
possible in western coastal parts. Refer to current flood warnings for more
information.

Details of the TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 2am WST Tuesday.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 15.6 South Longitude 122.2 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 965 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 185 kilometres per hour.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, One
Arm Point, Beagle Bay, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Broome should commence taking
precautions.

The next warning will be issued at 6am WST Tuesday.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone
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#87 Postby P.K. » Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:46 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1840UTC 27 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude fifteen decimal six degrees South [15.6S]
Longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal two degrees East [122.2E]
Recent movement : West southwest at 8 knots.
Maximum winds : 70 knots.
Central pressure : 965hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of
the centre by 1800UTC 28 March.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 70 knots, increasing to 100 knots by 1800UTC
28 March.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre increasing to within 30nm of centre by
1800UTC 28 March, clockwise winds above 48 knots, high seas and moderate
increasing swell.
Within 60 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the
centre by 1800UTC 28 March, winds above 35 knots with very rough seas and heavy
swell.


At 0600UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.4 South 120.5 East
Central pressure 945hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 28 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 16.9 South 119.0 East
Central pressure 930hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0100UTC 28 March 2006

WEATHER PERTH
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#88 Postby Aquawind » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:42 pm

Wow.. Mr Shear is playing hookie.. Hope he hangs around a ATL Basin this season..

Paul
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MiamiensisWx

#89 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:44 pm

Looks like another potential rapid developer!
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#90 Postby Aquawind » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:46 pm

The Warning above says so..

FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 70 knots, increasing to 100 knots by 1800UTC
28 March.


Paul
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MiamiensisWx

#91 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:48 pm

OK! There's no reason to sound testy...

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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#92 Postby Aquawind » Mon Mar 27, 2006 4:02 pm

LMAO.. Testy.. your reading way to deep..even crying.. :roll:

Just verifying your observation...straight up!

Paul
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MiamiensisWx

#93 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Mar 27, 2006 4:11 pm

Sorry... I didn't mean to sound annoying. No harm done.

:D :D :D :D

Thanks for the information!
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#94 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 4:50 pm

The southern hemissphere is really firing up. Cyclone Glenda is no good witch of the north(you know what I mean if you have watched The Wizard of oz).
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Weatherfreak000

#95 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:05 pm

What's the estimated max strength for Glenda now?
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#96 Postby P.K. » Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:13 pm

Cat 3 at 965hPa, 70kt sustained (36m/s), gusts to 185km/h (51m/s).
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#97 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Mar 27, 2006 7:18 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:The southern hemissphere is really firing up. Cyclone Glenda is no good witch of the north(you know what I mean if you have watched The Wizard of oz).


Although the SW Indian Ocean has been very quiet this season. Only 4 named systems.
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#98 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Mar 27, 2006 7:20 pm

Yet alot have been very strong.
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#99 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:05 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0059UTC 28 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude fifteen decimal six degrees South [15.6S]
Longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal six degrees East [121.6E]
Recent movement : West southwest at 6 knots.
Maximum winds : 80 knots.
Central pressure : 955hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 75 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 90 nautical miles of
the centre by 0000UTC 29 March.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 80 knots, increasing to 105 knots by 0000UTC
29 March.
Within 15 nautical miles of centre increasing to within 20nm of centre by
0000UTC 29 March, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal seas and heavy
swell.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre increasing to within 40nm of centre by
0000UTC 29 March, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high seas and heavy
swell.
Within 75 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 90 nautical miles of the
centre by 0000UTC 29 March, winds above 35 knots with very rough seas and heavy
swell.


At 1200UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.2 South 120.3 East
Central pressure 935hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 29 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.0 South 118.8 East
Central pressure 915hPa.
Winds to 105 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700UTC 28 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH


THIS BABY IS ON FIRE!
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#100 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:06 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 9:00 am WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for a CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE for coastal and island
areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga. A CYCLONE WATCH extends along the
Northwest coast to Exmouth.

At 8am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be
170 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and
270 kilometres north northwest of Broome
and was moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal parts
between Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay for the next few hours.
Should the cyclone take a more southwesterly track then gales with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour may extend south to Bidyadanga during the day.

The cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast for the next 24 to
36 hours and continue to intensify. Communities in the central and western
Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is likely to be near
the coast in 48 to 72 hours time.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 8am WST Tuesday.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 15.6 South Longitude 121.6 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 955 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 205 kilometres per hour.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Beagle Bay, Lombadina, Djarindjin, Broome and Bidyadanga should commence taking
precautions.

The next warning will be issued at 12 Noon WST Tuesday.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone


JUST 20 KMH MORE TO BE CAT. 4.
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