Central Southern Indian Ocean: Tropical Low

#1 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:23 am

Yet another one with a high chance to develop in the next few days.

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:12pm WST on Friday the 24th of March 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Shipping Warning [IDW23100] and Information Bulletin [IDW24000] are current for
Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd [Category 4], located near 15.4S 108.2E at 11am
WST Friday. Please refer to latest warnings.

A tropical low has started to develop to the northeast of the Cocos Islands. The
tropical low is currently disorganised.

Tropical Low
Location :near 8S 100E
about 580 kilometres [310 nautical miles]
northeast of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :1002 hPa
Recent movement :south at 15 kilometres per hour [8 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : low
Sunday : moderate
Monday : high

REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the south southwest next 48
hours.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:37 am

That is interesting...Lets see what this does!

#3 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 4:39 am

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 3:45 pm WST on Saturday, 25 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for the Cocos Islands.

At 2pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be 550 kilometres east northeast of
Cocos Island and 480 kilometres west of Christmas Island and was moving south
southwest at 3 knots.

A tropical cyclone may develop, but is not expected to cause gales at Cocos
Island within the next 24 hours. However, gales could occur within 48 hours if
the low develops and moves further westward.

At this stage, gales are not expected at Christmas Island.

Details of the tropical low at 2pm WST.

Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 10.5 South Longitude 101.7 East.
Recent movement : South southwest at 3 knots.
Central Pressure : 1000 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 80 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : Below tropical cyclone strength.

The next warning will be issued at 10pm WST.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:32 pm

IT HAS BLOSSOMED PRETTY GOOD!

#5 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:00 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0809UTC 26 MARCH 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC developing tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twelve decimal five degrees South [12.5S]
Longitude one hundred and one decimal nine degrees East [101.9E]
Recent movement : South at 6 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure : 998hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

At 1800UTC 26 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 13.4 South 101.5 East
Central pressure 994hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 27 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 14.9 South 101.4 East
Central pressure 990hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1400UTC 26 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

#6 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:46 pm

Nothing to see here either...... :wink:

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:32 pm

P.K., I think you got wrong the systems with the advisories. This is the Cocos Islands system, you posted the Australia system advisory. In the Australian System you posted the Cocos System advisory.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:39 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1926UTC 26 MARCH 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC developing tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude thirteen decimal three degrees South [13.3S]
Longitude one hundred and one decimal nine degrees East [101.9E]
Recent movement : South at 4 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure : 998hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

At 0600UTC 27 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.3 South 101.7 East
Central pressure 994hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 27 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 14.7 South 101.5 East
Central pressure 990hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0200UTC 27 March 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

#9 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:57 pm

I might have done......

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:59 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0521UTC 27 MARCH 2006
CANCELLATION OF
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
A tropical low with a weak broad circulation was located at 0600UTC within 45
nautical miles of
Latitude fifteen decimal zero degrees South [15.0S]
Longitude one hundred and two decimal zero degrees East [102.0E]
The low is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Gales are no longer expected within 24 hours.

FORECAST
The low is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24
hours. There is limited prospects of the system developing into a tropical
cyclone but it will be monitored for signs of development and a warning will be
issued if required.

No further warnings will be issued for this system unless it shows signs of
development.

WEATHER PERTH

Weatherfreak000 · #11 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:33 am

So.....bust?

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:34 am

I STILL DON'T WRITE THING SYSTEM OFF!

Weatherfreak000 · #13 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:44 am

So.....is the center over that convection? I really can't tell it looks like it's getting sheared to death.

I'm Watching You · #14 Postby **I'm Watching You** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:48 pm

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
300 NM RADIUS OF 17.3S 103.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAIL-
ABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
101.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS SPIRALING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281400Z.//

Is this the same system?

HurricaneHunter914 · #15 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:56 pm

Lots of convection I won't be suprised if it does become a major.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:10 pm

A VERY SHEARED SYSTEM. I THINK DEVELOPMENT IS CANCELLED!

HurricaneHunter914 · #17 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:15 pm

That came very suddenly!

I'm Watching You · #18 Postby **I'm Watching You** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:13 pm

Probably got gobbled up by Glenda.

CHRISTY · #19 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 10:43 pm

nite nite!

#20 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:01 am

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:46pm WST on Tuesday the 28th of March 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

A tropical low 1002hPa lies near 16S103E and is expected to move slowly
westwards over the next three days. The low is not expected to develop into a
tropical cyclone within the next three days.

There are no other significant tropical lows expected to affect the area within
the next three days.

Central Southern Indian Ocean: Tropical Low

Central Southern Indian Ocean: Tropical Low

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