SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah this thing is a cat4!

[KWT]

very impressive lookig system right now, great structure with an impressive eye. As someone else said, it also reminds me somewhat of Emily from last year.

It'll certainly be a deadly storm for people who get in its way, even if it does weaken somewhat as it pushes towards land.

[I'm Watching You]

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal areas
between Wallal and Exmouth.

The CYCLONE WARNING for coastal and island areas between Cape Leveque and
Bidyadanga has been cancelled.

At 2pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be
200 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and
260 kilometres north northwest of Broome
and was moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast for the next 24 to
36 hours and continue to intensify.

Communities in the central and western Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is expected to approach coast during Thursday or Friday,
when it is likely to be a very dangerous tropical cyclone with very destructive
winds.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 2pm WST Tuesday.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.0 South Longitude 121.1 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 925 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 265 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 4

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.4S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.1S 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.1S 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.4S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.5S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 120.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20S CONTINUES
TO TRACK ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE OVER
AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR GREATER AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. BY TAU 48, TC 20S WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//

NNNN

Cat4 on the ss scale...Which is big! Jesus holy mother of 150 knots is being forecast=180 mph. WOW WOW WOW

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0700UTC 28 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of
Latitude sixteen decimal zero degrees South [16.0S]
Longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal one degrees East [121.1E]
Recent movement : West southwest at 6 knots.
Maximum winds : 100 knots.
Central pressure : 925hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of
the centre by 0600UTC 29 March.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 100 knots, increasing to 120 knots by 0600UTC
29 March.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre increasing to within 40nm of centre by
0600UTC 29 March, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high seas and heavy
swell.
Within 60 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the
centre by 0600UTC 29 March, winds above 35 knots with very rough seas and heavy
swell.


At 1800UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.6 South 119.6 East
Central pressure 915hPa.
Winds to 110 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 29 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.5 South 118.1 East
Central pressure 905hPa.
Winds to 120 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300UTC 28 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

THE BEAST CONTINUES TO ROAR, NOW MUCH LOUDER. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS - 160 MPH ACCORDING TO NRL!

[P.K.]

Cat 5, 910hPa, gusts to 300km/h.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued at 9:10 pm WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE for coastal areas
between Wallal and Mardie.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Mardie to Exmouth.

At 8pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be
240 kilometres northwest of Broome and
450 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland
and was moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Communities along the Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GLENDA is expected to approach coast later on Wednesday and during Thursday.
Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour may develop along the Pilbara coast
between Wallal and Mardie as early as Wednesday night but more likely early on
Thursday morning. There is the risk of very destructive winds during Thursday as
the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 8pm WST Tuesday.
Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of
Latitude 16.7 South Longitude 120.4 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 910 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 300 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 5

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.

The next advice will be issued at midnight WST Tuesday.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[I'm Watching You]

It's now more destructive than Larry if it crosses the coast now. The bad thing is that Glenda is likely to get stronger. If it goes down below 900hpa and crosses the coast below 900hpa it will probably be the deepest and strongest cyclone that has ever hit the Australian Mainland since known history of cyclone crossing.

[AussieMark]

could be even more intense than Tropical Cyclone Orson of 1989 at this rate

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

This could become the strongest of 2006, but that's too early to call since we have to go through the typhoon and hurricanes seasons in the northern hemisphere.

[P.K.]

This quotes a different pressure to the public advisory so expect one to be corrected.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1317UTC 28 MARCH 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 120UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude sixteen decimal seven degrees South [16.7S]
Longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal four degrees East [120.4E]
Recent movement : Southwest at 10 knots.
Maximum winds : 115 knots.
Central pressure : 915hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of
the centre by 1200UTC 29 March.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 120 knots.
Within 20 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 60 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the
centre by 1200UTC 29 March, winds above 35 knots with very rough seas and heavy
swell.


At 0000UTC 29 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 17.9 South 118.9 East
Central pressure 905hPa.
Winds to 120 knots near centre.
At 1200UTC 29 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.9 South 117.4 East
Central pressure 905hPa.
Winds to 120 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1900UTC 28 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow talk about insanely rapid intensification. I'm in shock over this storm..

[Weatherfreak000]

MODELS AGREE! GLENDA IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL!!!


[/b][/i]

[HURAKAN]

FORTUNATELY, IF THIS MAP IS CORRECT WHICH I THINK IT'S, AUSTRALIA'S NORTHWESTERN COAST IS VERY SPARSELY POPULATED, THEREFORE THE DAMAGE ISNT GOING TO BE COMPARABLE TO LARRY'S. STILL, A VERY SERIOUS STORM FOR ANYONE THAT LIVES IN THAT AREA.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Yeah this thing is a cat4!

it's a cat.3 boarderline cat.4

[Weatherfreak000]

It's forecast to reach true Category 5 within 24 hours. So if Glenda is gonna pull a try Wilma we're likely to notice very very soon.

[AussieMark]

Yeah this thing is a cat4!

it's a cat.3 boarderline cat.4

thats 10 min wind speed I think


115 kts (10 min average) = 130 kts 1 min average

[hurricanefloyd5]

can we see the T.C.WARNING for that area please

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.9S 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.0S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.2S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.5S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.6S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 120.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20S CONTINUES TO
TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS CREATED IN THE STEERING RIDGE BY A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH MAX INTENSITY NEAR TAU 24 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER 30 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET. AS TC 20S TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE JET, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
UNTIL LANDFALL IS MADE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z
AND 291500Z.



ALREADY A CATEGORY 5 TROPICAL CYCLONE ACCORDING TO THE JTWC!