tornadotony wrote:Take the Springfield, MO, NWS office and put them at the TOP of the list:
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A 110+ KNOT
JET STREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS PROGGED TO SWING NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE AREA COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
DRY LINE TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH INTO THE
OZARKS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL SOME QUESTION ON MOISTURE
RETURN. SOME QUESTION ALSO ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE
WARMING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AMPLE CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 60 KTS SUGGEST
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
HELICITIES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 350 M2/S2 OR GREATER. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN AMPLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES SEVERE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC STORM MODE AT THIS POINT BUT
SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WHILE
MESOSCALE PARAMETERS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT THAT WOULD
INFLUENCE TORNADIC POTENTIAL...SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE
IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
Thanks for the post, maybe I'm just more inclined to believe my local offices? :dunno:
