Looking for an "expert" opinion

[Jim Cantore]

Was Wilma on the right angle that if she hit about 20 miles further south she would have nailed Key West with a 15 foot surge?

[Ixolib]

Looking for an "expert" opinion

Guess that "officially" counts most of us out!!!

[jax]

I would have to say no....

[dhweather]

Derek had indicated that a small difference southward in Wilma's track
would have hammered the keys. Ask him.

[Derek Ortt]

they missed the eye wall and the 125 mph winds by only 5 miles. Even so, Marathon had a 10 foot surge, menaing 15-20 from Florida Bay is reasonable

[Aquawind]

Dang that was close! As often as Key West is grazed by systems that would have been incredible. Were talk major structural damage to those wooden structures at least. The flooding alone was rather impressive from the reports I heard any closer and insurance claims would have quadrupled..

Paul

[Derek Ortt]

that is if anyone would have survived to file the insurance claims. Not sure how many would have survived the 15-20 ft surge (and remember, about 80% of the population stayed for reasons that defy logic)

[Aquawind]

Well Said.. That was some bad evacuation numbers.. Billy needs a bigger stick!

Paul

[Derek Ortt]

its the attitude of invincibility that exists down there. Only way to get people to leave is what they did with Ivan and issue a total evacuation order

[MGC]

I visit Kew West often and I don't think the Conchs have an attitude of invincibility. They were likely sick of evacuating and since Wilma was not forecast to be as strong (cat-2 at most) as she was at CPA they all decided to ride it out. Maybe they had the same attitude as many Camille survivors here on the Miss coast that it would not be that bad.......MGC

[Ixolib]

I visit Kew West often and I don't think the Conchs have an attitude of invincibility. They were likely sick of evacuating and since Wilma was not forecast to be as strong (cat-2 at most) as she was at CPA they all decided to ride it out. Maybe they had the same attitude as many Camille survivors here on the Miss coast that it would not be that bad.......MGC

Yep - and they lucked out, no doubt.

Like the saying goes around here... "Camille killed more people on August 29, 2005 that she did on August 17, 1969"

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep - and they lucked out, no doubt.

That's REALLY scary. This gives them the attitude that it won't happen.

[Patrick99]

I don't know - I saw some pictures, and I've been down to Key West a few times since. The water got pretty high. I get the feeling that a lot of the residents were surprised by how bad it was - I bet they have learned their lesson.

Of course, the good thing about a storm surge down there is that there are no levees to break or overtop, and no place for the water to collect. The surge comes and the surge recedes.

[Derek Ortt]

was also in Marathon a couple weeks after, was surprised to see all of the debris by the sides of the roads. The structures remained standing, but they were washed out on the first floor. Of course, thats what a 10 foot storm surge will do

[Ixolib]

Yep - and they lucked out, no doubt.

That's REALLY scary. This gives them the attitude that it won't happen.

Good point. Past history is the best indicator of future behavior...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Like the saying goes around here... "Camille killed more people on August 29, 2005 that she did on August 17, 1969"

Very Sad and Very True

[weatherwindow]

the SLOSH numbers for key west(and the lower keys for that matter) max out at about 10' in a cat 5, with 5-7 in a cat 3...both numbers assume worst angle of approach and astronomical high tide...luckily the area has a fairly benign storm surge profile with the given bathographics...as you move up the keys(toward marathon and further east to islamorada) the profile ramps up to max from 16-20 in a cat 5 with 9-11 in a cat3....historically, the worst storm surge experienced by kw was during the great hurricane of oct 11, 1845(borderline 4/5)...5-6 feet of water on duval west of caroline moving at 5 knots...equates to about 10.5' of surges. in general, the kw and lower keys experience a greater surge from florida bay than from the florida straits due to the bottom contours....old town kw(the northwestern end of the island and the site of the original plats) occupies the highest ground on the island. that said the blocks immediately adjacent to the harbor are only 4' above sea level and flood on a spring tide......rich

[Derek Ortt]

those seem like the Atlantic numbers

The surge from Florida Bay is 2 to 3 times higher since Florida Bay is only about 2 feet deep. Wilma's large surge came from Florida Bay, while the Atlantic surge never exceeded 5 feet

[baygirl_1]

My sister and her DH have a trailer on a key just north/east of Marathon. It's on the Atlantic side. The bay side of the key got it really hard. They had some damage on their side, but not like they'd expected. They aren't permanent residents there and have said they'd never stay down there for a storm. Shoot-- they don't stay here for a storm! Anyway, many of their neighbors stayed. Most are from New England or the mid-Atlantic states. Some did go to evacuation shelters at local schools. I'd say those that stayed were folks who have no real idea what a hurricane is like; they've never experienced one. They didn't have a healthy respect for hurricanes, I'm afraid. Now, the question is, do they realize how lucky they are that she spared them her worst??

[brunota2003]

or will they use them beating the odds against Wilma to stay again? see, its a double-bladed sword...some might be warned now, but most will say they can beat the odds, stay and survive...then a Cat 4-5 comes in at the worst angle and just levels the islands and sweeps them clean...including everyone who was dumb enough to try gambling against the devil after he stacked the deck...(best example I could think of, very realistic IMO)