SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[SouthFloridawx]

Forcast at 120 Hours waters warming up in the gulf

[webke]

webke wrote:
Cycloneye,
I just was looking at the 3d graphics page from where you posted the above graphic, and I have a question. When you look at the western Atlantic graphics page for 15 degrees north to 45 degrees north what I saw totally surprised me. The deeper you look at the depths, the Atlantic is retaining more heat at the lower depths than the Gulf. I have been reading all the concern about the SST's in the gulf and my question is what impact if any could the deeper water temps have as we move closer toward the summer.
Thanks Ken


The deep waters are the most to watch as the heat content is more deep than at the surface.The western Caribbean sea waters is the area in which the heat content is the most intense.

Thanks for the answer I have been wondering what effect the ocean depths and currents may play in the intensity of Hurricanes. I was reading in todays news that for us in South Carolina not to use Hugo as a baseline for what type of damage a hurricane would do, as it was weakening as it neared the coast. That is why I was wondering if the deeper ocean temps may actually influence a storm more than the SST's. I am not sure not being knowledgeable enough but have found that the members here can usually put into laymans terms the answer to the question.
Again Thanks
Ken

[MiamiensisWx]

Why does that graphic above forecasting a cooling of SSTs in the Gulf Stream by 120 hours?

[SouthFloridawx]

Why does that graphic above forecasting a cooling of SSTs in the Gulf Stream by 120 hours?

It is forcasting the overall warming of the sst's in the gulf. Meaning the cooler waters nearest to the shores are retreating.

[SouthFloridawx]

Gulf Waters now


Gulf waters forcast in 120hours

[JPmia]

Time to write off hurricane season. I was looking forward to it too .

I would not say that at all.The important thing to watch is if by late April or early May the warm waters expand then yes el nino freshhold has been met.However fluctuations occur up and down so let's wait but I give some credit to the Aussies who did say 3 weeks ago that el nino would be around by the northern hemisphere summer.Let's see if they are right or the CPC predictions of neutral conditions are right.

First it was going to be a La Nina, then neutral, now possible El Nino! Last I heard was mild La Nina to neutral conditions.

Seems like we discussed the same topic at the same time last year...and look what happened....My understanding is that, overall, the Atlantic water temps are still above normal. It seems to me that we can definitely count on the water temps to contribute to an above normal season...but what about the other factors...i guess we have to wait until about May to find out.

[meteorologyman]

This is the image of Thermohaline Circulation


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/soto/animMOC.html

[SouthFloridawx]

so in theory the waters in the caribbean, gulf of mexico and gulf stream may not be as warm someday?

[Weatherfreak14]

Local water temp here in SC is around 58* gradually getting warmer. Just posted so if anyone would like to know what the EC SST was.

[Scorpion]

So during the 06' season an El Nino is expected? I thought there was supposed to be a La Nina?

Absolutely not. A La Nina is expected. However, ONE model with a warm bias says theres a slight chance for an El Nino in October. Remember last year, it was almost assured that a mid-grade El Nino event would take place because of the same particular model forecasting it.

[P.K.]

Doesn't look like this has been posted yet.

CURRENT STATUS as at 29th March 2006
Next update expected by 12th April 2006 (two weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: A neutral Pacific, but with some features of a La Niña

Subsurface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific remain significantly cooler than average, thereby raising the potential for a basin-wide La Niña event to develop. However, when all things are considered, the current conditions across the Pacific are looking less like a La Niña than they were two months ago. This is particularly the case with sea-surface temperatures, which have been warming along the equator, and the Trade Winds which are not nearly as strong as those seen in December and January.

On the other hand, the SOI has risen to +14 and cloudiness remains strongly suppressed around the date-line. Both these observations are consistent with a La Niña. Computer modelling of Pacific temperatures generally indicates warming over the next few seasons, with neutral conditions in the southern winter and spring. It should be noted that March to June is the period when the ability to predict future ENSO conditions is at its lowest.

[MiamiensisWx]

SouthFloridawx, the lower graphic you posted above for the 120 hours forecast shows a cooling of Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas/Florida SSTs, not a warming. Any thoughts on that?

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest SST current graphic shows that SST anomalies near Africa have warmed slightly over the past few days; however, the far western Atlantic, northwestern Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico is much cooler than the past few days. Notice that?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What is the chances that the sst's over the Atlantic reach last year level?

[MiamiensisWx]

Any new thoughts on why western Atlantic SST anomalies have now cooled?

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFloridawx, the lower graphic you posted above for the 120 hours forecast shows a cooling of Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas/Florida SSTs, not a warming. Any thoughts on that?

Not sure .. lets wait and see what happens.

[SouthFloridawx]

Gulf Waters now


Gulf waters forcast in 120hours

Capeverde it is not a cooling rather the Key for the temperatures is now different - please see the map key for temperatures.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2003 had cool water off the East coast...Also you would think that cool water=high pressure which means for a stroner Bermuda high.

[MidwestWX]

The waters just off the SE coast are below normal and in the Atlantic slightly above. Could be all the cool wx in the southeast. SO much for Global warming. Also the strong front that moved down a few days ago cooled the Gulf also but with warmer temps ahead it will warm. I doubt we said any major cool downs again.

[MidwestWX]