SE Indian Ocean: Severe TC Glenda

[Coredesat]

29/2033 UTC 19.2S 116.1E T5.5/5.5 GLENDA

Up from T5.0/5.5 earlier.

[CHRISTY]

click on RADAR LOOP to see Glenda approaching!

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR152.loop.shtml

[Inclement Weather]

Hmmm, by the look of that radar image Christy, a storm surge is definitely a worry for Karratha. They're a bit of a sitting duck for that. I'll have to check the tides to see when their next high tide is.

[CHRISTY]

Microwave still shows eyewall open to the SE.

[Inclement Weather]

Okay, hightide is at 1123 and 2342 WST today for Dampier (King Bay):

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanogra ... ations.cgi

[Weatherfreak000]

Can someone post a good sat pic of Glenda at her peak?

[Rod Hagen]

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
Issued 6AM WST Thursday 30 March 2006.



IDW24200
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued at 6:00 am WST on Thursday, 30 March 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal
areas between De Grey and Minilya Roadhouse, extending inland to Tom Price,
Paraburdoo and Mount Augustus.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to Kalbarri and inland parts of the Gascoyne.

At 5am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be
270 kilometres west northwest of Port Hedland and
185 kilometres north northwest of Karratha and
310 kilometres north northeast of Onslow
and was moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Very dangerous SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is expected to cross the coast
between Exmouth and Karratha, most likely tonight.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are occurring along the Pilbara
coast. Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are forecast to
develop during the day as the cyclone nears the coast. Very destructive gusts to
250 kilometres an hour are expected near the cyclone centre as it nears the
coast.

Very destructive winds will extend to inland parts of the western Pilbara
overnight and Friday as the system moves further south.

Residents between Karratha and Onslow are specifically warned of the potential
of a very dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides
are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with very
dangerous flooding and damaging waves.

Widespread heavy rain and flooding are likely in the western Pilbara and western
Gascoyne over the next few days.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 5am WST Thursday.
Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of
Latitude 19.1 South Longitude 116.4 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 930 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 250 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 4

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near the communities of Point Samson, Wickham,
Roebourne, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie should move to shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Pannawonica and Onslow should
commence action in preparation for the possibility of destructive winds.
BLUE ALERT: People in other communities between Exmouth and Whim Creek should
start taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in the communities of De Grey, Port and South
Hedland.

The next advice will be issued at 9am WST Thursday.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

__________________

Rod

[Jim Cantore]

Converted to MPH how strong is it?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

About 105 knots...

[Incident_MET]

Thanks for the info Rod. Was looking for something like that

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

105 knots converted into MPH is around 120mph. Keep in mind the Australians don't measure sustained winds properly (or at least, not the way we do it in our hemisphere) 930mb usually suggests winds higher than Cat3 (although Katrina might try to argue that)

[Jim Cantore]

wasnt she 140 knots yesterday?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Does she have time to strengthen to a Cat-5?

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Yes, Glenda was monstrous yesterday, but thankfully she underwent ERC since then. The windfield expanded too, so the wind-pressure relationship is going to be lower now. Surge is going to be a problem with this one. The front-left quadrant has been brushing the coast for several days now. Geographically vulnerable places like Dampier/Karratha, and Cape Preston, could really get walloped. Sure hope they're taking this storm seriously down there...any yahoos staying behind will probably die.

edit: i doubt Glenda will regain Cat5. She might make Aussie Cat5 before landfall if things go wrong, but the farther south she goes, the more shear and land interaction will take their toll. Experience shows that most storms won't reintensify after their windfield expands like that...not saying it's not gonna happen, of course, because I'm hardly an expert on Australian cyclones, but just giving my 2 cents.

[Jim Cantore]

Yes, Glenda was monstrous yesterday, but thankfully she underwent ERC since then. The windfield expanded too, so the wind-pressure relationship is going to be lower now. Surge is going to be a problem with this one. The front-left quadrant has been brushing the coast for several days now. Geographically vulnerable places like Dampier/Karratha, and Cape Preston, could really get walloped. Sure hope they're taking this storm seriously down there...any yahoos staying behind will probably die.

doesnt this seem familar?

[HurricaneHunter914]

edit: i doubt Glenda will regain Cat5. She might make Aussie Cat5 before landfall if things go wrong, but the farther south she goes, the more shear and land interaction will take their toll. Experience shows that most storms won't reintensify after their windfield expands like that...not saying it's not gonna happen, of course, because I'm hardly an expert on Australian cyclones, but just giving my 2 cents.

I would have to disagree about the windfield part because I believe Katrina had a 100+miles of hurricane force winds at Cat-5 and at landfall.

[Jim Cantore]

edit: i doubt Glenda will regain Cat5. She might make Aussie Cat5 before landfall if things go wrong, but the farther south she goes, the more shear and land interaction will take their toll. Experience shows that most storms won't reintensify after their windfield expands like that...not saying it's not gonna happen, of course, because I'm hardly an expert on Australian cyclones, but just giving my 2 cents.

I would have to disagree about the windfield part because I believe Katrina had a 100+miles of hurricane force winds at Cat-5 and at landfall.

ERC, heavy weakening, widening windfield, very wide windfield, This has quite a bit in common with Katrina, just weaker

[AussieMark]

105 knots converted into MPH is around 120mph. Keep in mind the Australians don't measure sustained winds properly (or at least, not the way we do it in our hemisphere) 930mb usually suggests winds higher than Cat3 (although Katrina might try to argue that)

Remember here in Australia the sustained winds is actually 10 min average not the US standard 1 min average

(10 min average) 105 kts = 119 kts (1 min average)

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0051UTC 30 MARCH 2006
CORRECTED
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 15 nautical miles of
Latitude nineteen decimal five degrees South [19.5S]
Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal five degrees East [116.5E]
Recent movement : South southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 90 knots.
Central pressure : 936hPa.
Warning reissued to correct error in latitude.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 140 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
Sustained winds near the centre to 90 knots.
Within 30 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal
seas and heavy swell.
Within 60 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high
seas and heavy swell.
Within 120 nautical miles of centre in northern quadrants, extending to within
140 nautical miles of centre in southern quadrants, winds above 33 knots with
very rough seas and heavy swell.


At 1200UTC 30 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 21.3 South 115.7 East
Central pressure 936hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 31 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 23.0 South 114.8 East
Central pressure 970hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700UTC 30 March 2006.


WEATHER PERTH

[Rod Hagen]

Converted to MPH how strong is it?

The gust speed of 250 Kilometres per hour = 135 Knots

(1 knot = 1.852kph)

250 kph = 155.3 MPH

(1 mph = 1.609 kph)

Cheers

Rod