Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..

[CrazyC83]

I haven't really thought about this weekend yet...could this be just the first phase of another outbreak sequence (like March 9-13)?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

24 reported tornadoes....

[WaitingForSiren]

I have to say I am with SPC on this. They are going with a large high-end slight risk on sunday for the mississippii valley...with talk of going moderate...and maybe even high (I am assuming so, anyway). They mention the potential for long track supercells and tornadic supercells on sunday.

Also, they have a moderate risk for saturday...IMO this is a little overdone, but who knows.

And they also talk about more significant svr episodes next friday...and I agree. I think next friday will be my states (mn) first chance at a REAL severe weather outbreak. Hope it pulls through =)

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks severe weather season is taking full swing.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya much better than last year

[tidesong]

Wow, I can't believe Sedalia got hit again! What are the odds?

[CrazyC83]

Moderate risk for Day 2 usually means something big is in the air. We'll have to wait and see. I'll be making maps shortly.

[CrazyC83]

These are not official forecasts - just my thoughts.

Today should see a good squall line form from Lake Huron to the Ark-la-tex region. Severe weather should form out of it, but the threat is lower than yesterday. Mainly a wind and hail threat with very few tornadoes.



Tomorrow is a difficult call. I'm still uncertain about the severity, but I'm taking the SPC's word for it and raising the risk. However, the lack of confidence keeps the risk at Level 3 for the moment. If everything fans out, it could be a dangerous tornado outbreak though.

[tornadotony]

Yeah but the emphasized severe factor today was the potential for a few strong tornadoes, and SPC put the highest tornado risk in the wrong areas. Overall spc did a poor job today, maybe a 5 on a scale of 1-10. I am not saying there wasnt a fairly significant severe event as there should be around 20 tornado reports total...but overall spc's large tornado area didnt go over too well.

I take it you're a big Accuweather supporter?

I almost fell out of my chair when i read that. LOL. WHAT!?!? Accuweather are the most unaccurate weather forecasters. JB is a good forecaster but he always overhypes everything. Ken Reeves is probably the best forecaster there, or that berny reno guy or whatever, joe soeble isnt too bad either, but overall theyre way too lamen for me and are a watered down weather.com. And THAT is watered down, my friend.

I only said that because you just seem to keep bashing the SPC, just like they bash everything NOAA, even though with some of the damage reports come in, it looks like the hatching was appropriate, at least for part of the area.

[Skywatch_NC]

And hopefully on Monday getting at least some severe here in my "neck-of-the-woods"...about bloomin' time!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 48prob.gif


Eric

[WaitingForSiren]

Nah, SPC has made good forecasts many times before. They nailed april 18 2004 for my area, and may 9 2004 for my area as well. Also, they did a decent job on october 24 2001 with their high risk and november 23 2004. I just think overall they do a poor job in being realistic. A lot of times they issue a large tornado area then when it becomes obvious it isnt going to verify they dont change it.

Based on the latest model runs...sunday still looks potent. Im still thinking tomorrows mdt risk is overdone, but we'll see what spc says in their latest outlook.

[CrazyC83]

I am shocked right now that there hasn't been any real development. Way up where I am (central Ontario), it is 72 out now...

[WaitingForSiren]

I dont really expect much severe weather in ontario...isolated hail/wind is possible but the big stuff should stay in the US...and thats hardly anything compared to yesterday.

[CrazyC83]

At this latitude, you're right - dewpoints are still in the 40s. Nowhere near what is needed for significant severe weather. However, farther south - especially around Lake Erie to the Ohio Valley - is the main threat area.

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, but to be honest i dont think todays event will be a big deal. Probably a scattering of hail and wind reports with the isolated tornado reports here and there.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, there aren't even any Severe Thunderstorm Watches anywhere right now. Still, it just feels to me like something wants to happen with temperatures in the 70s here (which is really warm for March), but the air mass as a whole is not right - unlike March 28-30, 1998.

[WaitingForSiren]

Funny how you mention those dates because march 29 1998 had a massive tornado here in MN, tracked 70 miles at one point, and traversed my whole state practically.

[WaitingForSiren]

The following is NOT an official forecast...

[tornadotony]

The following is NOT an official forecast...

That's a very good outlook. I think that everything could even be expanded 20-30 miles north based on the 1200z GFS. I'm very worried about the Chicago area; not only that, the Sox home opener is Sunday evening (being a Cubs' fan, I don't really care; but there will be ~55,000 people at 35th and Shields).

[WaitingForSiren]

That is a good point, but isnt there a roof to the stadium? I think the odds of a tornado hitting the stadium are slim to none.