Yet another storm to affect southern California (times two)

[weatherlover427]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-011400-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-CUYAMA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
330 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

...TWO STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT..

THE FIRST STORM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE STEADIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
TONIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH
ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
ON SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG AND COLD
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
OREGON COAST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...EVENTUALLY BEING CENTERED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WILL BE FUELED BY A POWERFUL JET STREAM.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COAST...THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON MONDAY. AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST..
THERE WILL BE INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL..
WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS EVENT
IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...AND A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DRASTICALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS...THE LATEST COMPUTER WEATHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PRELIMINARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND STORM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH TWO TO
FOUR INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
INTENSITIES...RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY...AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET AT THE ONSET
OF THIS STORM EVENT ON MONDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN
4500 AND 5500 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW
LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 4000 FEET. THIS EVENT COULD BE A MAJOR
SNOW PRODUCER AT THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ON
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD EXPERIENCE POWERFUL WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
AS A RESULT...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE POSTED. WHILE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY REQUIRE WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY THOSE PLANNING
TRAVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THESE TWO
PACIFIC STORMS TAKE AIM ON THE REGION.

$$

GOMBERG

- - - - - -

Seems like it never ends around here. Been like this for the past 2-3 weeks at least. But hey, we need it. We are stikll about 4 inches below normal for the season and we will take what we can get.

[bob rulz]

Cool. The more storms that slam into California, the more storms move into where I live.

[weatherlover427]

Yeah, mostly all of the West and South really needs precip right now so IMO we should be glad for (and take) all that we can get.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks really wet for California right now

[weatherlover427]

Yep, take a look at this mini squall line moving into San Luis Obispo right now:

http://www.blowsomesteamoff.net/miscell ... ryan/1.PNG

[weatherlover427]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 900 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS - SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS - SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS - THE INLAND EMPIRE - SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS - SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS - RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS - SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS - SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS - APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS - COACHELLA VALLEY - SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS - 900 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

- A STORM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK SUNDAY..THEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN - HEAVY AT TIMES - AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING..

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE OR NONE IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE ABOUT 6000 FEET. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER SUNDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A STRONG SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BRING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN - HEAVY AT TIMES. THE FORECAST MODELS COULD CHANGE THIS SCENARIO BUT CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO THE CORE OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN - HAIL - THUNDERSTORMS - WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL AND INLAND VALLEYS WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AROUND AN INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN THE DESERTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH - ABOVE 7000 FEET AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 4000 FEET OR LOWER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. VERY HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS WELL UP THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND WASHES. RECENTLY BURNED AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING FROM MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS.

ALSO - STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY - DECREASING LATE WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND AT LEAST BREEZY ELSEWHERE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.

ANYONE IN FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING STRONG STORM. HIKERS OR CAMPERS IN REMOTE AREAS SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM AND LISTEN FOR STATEMENTS - ADVISORIES - AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

WHITLOW

- - - - - -

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 330 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

ANTELOPE VALLEY - CATALINA ISLAND - CUYAMA VALLEY - LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES - LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE - LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS - SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST - SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS - SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS - SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST - SANTA CLARITA VALLEY - SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA - SANTA YNEZ VALLEY - VENTURA COUNTY COAST - VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS - VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS - VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS - 330 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

- TWO STORM SYSTEMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT..

THE FIRST STORM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - THE STEADIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES TONIGHT - SPREADING ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS - WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET - WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

A SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY EVENING - THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST - EVENTUALLY BEING CENTERED NEAR POINT CONCEPTION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WILL BE FUELED BY A POWERFUL JET STREAM. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST - THEN SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST.. THERE WILL BE INCREASING INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL - GUSTY WINDS - SMALL HAIL.. WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY - AND A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DRASTICALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS - THE LATEST COMPUTER WEATHER MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND STORM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS - WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTENSITIES - RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND THE BURN AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY - AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF THIS STORM EVENT ON MONDAY - BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 4000 FEET. THIS EVENT COULD BE A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER AT THE HIGHER SKI RESORTS - WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL - MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE POWERFUL WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT - A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE POSTED. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS - GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY REQUIRE WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA - ESPECIALLY THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THESE TWO PACIFIC STORMS TAKE AIM ON THE REGION.

GOMBERG

- - - - - -

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

SYNOPSIS - AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY - THEN IT WILL MOVE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE SPREADING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BAND WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY. A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEEPENING THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION - FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE - SAN DIEGO - WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WHICH WAS OVER POINT CONCEPTION. THE MAIN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED INTO ORANGE COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE EAST ABOUT 2 TO 4 AM SAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT SAT MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER LATE SAT AFTERNOON. IT INCREASES OVER THE AREA SUN WITH A RIDGE PUMPING UP TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS SUN. A LARGE TROUGH DIGS OFF THE COAST SUN AND SWINGS INTO SOCAL SUN NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE JET CORE OVER SOCAL TUE THROUGH WED WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL - THUNDERSTORMS - WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH AND MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CA TUE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH MORE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT HIGH - ABOVE 7000 FEET - THEN LOWER TUE THROUGH WED TO 4000 FEET OR LOWER. WINDS WILL INCREASE MON WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND AT LEAST BREEZY ELSEWHERE AT TIMES THROUGH WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE ONE TO TWO INCHES OR MORE IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ABOUT AN INCH OR MORE IN THE DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER THU WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE DIGITAL PRODUCTS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

.AVIATION - SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT - INCREASING AFTER 08Z. MOST CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET MSL UNTIL THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS OCCUR AFTER 08Z WHEN CEILINGS COULD FALL BELOW 2000 FEET LOCALLY. LOCAL VSBYS OF 3 - 5SM WILL OCCUR IN THE SHOWERS - MAINLY LATE. SOME OBSCURATION OF THE MTNS WILL OCCUR IN FOG. ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY - THOUGH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE BASES OF THE CLOUDS.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES -

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - MAINLY FOR MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE LAXSPSSGX.

PUBLIC - WHITLOW AVIATION - MAXWELL

- - - - - -

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1005 PM PST FRI MAR 31 2006

.SHORT TERM - WEAK FRONTAL BAND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN HAS COVERED MUCH OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES - WITH NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS PER HOUR OVER THE REGION. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NOTED - NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR OVER PARTS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SE THRU THE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN AROUND 5500 FEET OR EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER - AND SHOULD SETTLE TO NEAR 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5500 FEET.

UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THRU CENTRAL CA SAT MORNING AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN AS A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GFS PUSHES SOME RAIN INTO THE CENTRAL COAST BY LATE SUN WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS REFLECTS A SLOWER TIMING. TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ALL EYES ON NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN CA SUN NIGHT AND MON. LARGE UPPER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF NORTHERN CA SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE S OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON MON. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEATHER SYSTEM AND MOISTURE WITH RATHER HI PWAT VALUES WILL MOVE NE FROM THE SUBTROPICS SUN NIGHT AND BE ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUN NIGHT AND MON WHICH WILL HELP IN ENHANCING PRECIP OVER THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE DISTRICT LATER SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE MON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES - ESPECIALLY ON SOUTH FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS THRU MON WILL BE RATHER HIGH - PROBABLY AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET.

- FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT AND TUE - THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT - WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT - THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WATERSPOUT AND FUNNEL CLOUD ACTIVITY. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL 72 HOURS AWAY - AND A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW COULD CERTAINLY MAKE MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER - THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF BEING A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SPRING STORM - WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW - AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS - WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS - AND LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT - REMAINING NEAR 4000 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM EVOLUTION - LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER AT THE SKI RESORT LEVELS - AND WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - FRI) - A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT - KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME - THERE WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS - WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION - ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT FOR A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS. EXPECT CEILINGS RANGING FROM 010 TO 040 AND OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SAT WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES - SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX)

PUBLIC - SIRARD/GOMBERG AVIATION - SWEET/SIRARD

[bob rulz]

Yeah, mostly all of the West and South really needs precip right now so IMO we should be glad for (and take) all that we can get.

Well, we don't need precip where we live, I just love rain (and snow). But yes, the southwest and south badly need precip, so hopefully they can get some more significant precip soon.