low with LLC North of Puerto Rico

[NONAME]

NHC

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FAIRLY WEAK UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC NEAR 9N91W.
MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR WITH A STREAK OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING TOWARDS
THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS W OF 74W N OF 17N AND
OVER THE ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED 30
NM NW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W. A SFC TROUGH LIES SWWARD OF
LOW TO 16N71W AND NEWARD OF THE LOW INTO THE ATLANTIC. SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS SPIRALING AROUND THE
CENTER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. SOLID
MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN 175
NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. THIS AREA OF RAIN THEN MOVES WWARD
OVER HISPANIOLA WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AND DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS
SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SWARD THIS WEEKEND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN WHERE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A REMNANT TROUGH WILL HANG IN
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


They have been saying it would dissipate for 3 days now.

[Coredesat]

Not a chance, with all that shear. It should truly be gone in a day or two.

[weatherwoman132]

are you serious? lol. oy, something to watch..

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

This radar is not a joke ,it's for real

Radar loop from San Juan NWS which shows very clear that low spinning.But the shear is strong (Around 60kts) with the jet stream in the area.

[gatorcane]

I'm way confused. Is this an April Fool's joke.

Today has got my head spinning on here. Here is the latest shear map. Way too much shear!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting

[cycloneye]

I haved been wet here all afternoon long and as long the low is close to the island more precipitation will fall.Already flash flood warnings haved been issued for portions of Puerto Rico.

[NONAME]

no this is not a april fools joke

[Weatherfreak000]

I am in shock this thing is so well defined. If we get some vigorous LLC's like this throughout the year I have no doubt we'll see a ton of storms.


Nice way to break away from the April Fools Gags lol.

[NONAME]

looks like it creating it own enviorment and try to rap around the center and lower the shear. Weird.

[NONAME]

Just wondering I dont know much about the anticylone but is this thing trying to build one? I have no idea just wondering.

[benny]

Not a prayer. Shear is forecast to remain very very strong. low could stick around but no tropical/subtropical development

[CHRISTY]

iam not seeing much there at this time....

[Javlin]

What would we be interesting if there is an actual low to track.If so maybe see how it tracks that might provide some clues for early season movement?

[SouthFloridawx]

Nothin about this low is listed in the cyclone phase and analysis page.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Secondly, there is way too much shear in the area. Any thunderstorm activity is being blown to the northeast at a rapid pace. I know it would be nice to track something right now but, we have to be realistic.

[gatorcane]

jeez this season is going to be rough...this is not the first time we have seen something try to fight hard against the shear. When it relaxes watch out

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Exactly what I was thinking. This season *could be* the worse ever; at least that is what I'm seeing.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like the shear is beginning to subside, a weakening seems to be starting over Florida and the northern Atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the shear is beginning to subside, a weakening seems to be starting over Florida and the northern Atlantic.

You will know when the time is right for this to start happening. You will see the ITCZ start to come farther north. The National Hurricane Season will issue its forcast for hurricane season. Then you'll start to see some waves start to form off of africa and move into the caribbean. There will be discussions about the caribbean sea and the gom. Invests will start to pop up and forcast models running. But, now folks we do have a little longer to wait. You will know when it's here cause there will be a lot of people here in s2k browsing around.

[gatorcane]

I say in the month of May sometime, we are going to see a teaser.