Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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conestogo_flood
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CrazyC83
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NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST- just my prediction.
What a wild weekend we have in store! The next three days could very well be some of the most active tornado days in years!
Today's focal point will be the Southern Plains, particularly Oklahoma. There is strong potential for tornadoes - including dangerous and long-tracked ones. Unlike the last two days, this IS a tornado threat, although large hail should also be a factor. The frequency of the tornadoes is not high enough to go to a Level 5 yet, but that could change. This could also be an all-nighter.
If you think today is bad enough, tomorrow is even worse. The threat area is quite large too, focused on Illinois. The Level 4 threat would be Level 5 if confidence was greater - but it is high enough as it is. The area could grow too. Dangerous tornadoes are the main threat. Again, this could be continuous into the evening and overnight hours.
Monday is a difficult call at this point. I think the SPC is downplaying the East Coast threat, but there isn't much confidence at this point. However, I do have a Level 2 threat for much of the coastal areas. Tomorrow will play a major role in its strength as it continues east.
What a wild weekend we have in store! The next three days could very well be some of the most active tornado days in years!
Today's focal point will be the Southern Plains, particularly Oklahoma. There is strong potential for tornadoes - including dangerous and long-tracked ones. Unlike the last two days, this IS a tornado threat, although large hail should also be a factor. The frequency of the tornadoes is not high enough to go to a Level 5 yet, but that could change. This could also be an all-nighter.
If you think today is bad enough, tomorrow is even worse. The threat area is quite large too, focused on Illinois. The Level 4 threat would be Level 5 if confidence was greater - but it is high enough as it is. The area could grow too. Dangerous tornadoes are the main threat. Again, this could be continuous into the evening and overnight hours.
Monday is a difficult call at this point. I think the SPC is downplaying the East Coast threat, but there isn't much confidence at this point. However, I do have a Level 2 threat for much of the coastal areas. Tomorrow will play a major role in its strength as it continues east.
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WaitingForSiren
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
I updated my chart for today on another thread - increased East Coast threat to Level 2 + westward extension of main outbreak area (holding at Level 4 though)
The Day 1 maps I make can be updated at any time. The Day 2 maps (if necessary) are issued twice a day and the Day 3 maps (if necessary) are issued once a day in the morning. I will never make a chart unless a significant event is ongoing or expected.
I will only go up to Level 5 when I am definitely confident that a major outbreak is going to happen. I have done it only twice (November 15 and March 12) and both verified.
The Day 1 maps I make can be updated at any time. The Day 2 maps (if necessary) are issued twice a day and the Day 3 maps (if necessary) are issued once a day in the morning. I will never make a chart unless a significant event is ongoing or expected.
I will only go up to Level 5 when I am definitely confident that a major outbreak is going to happen. I have done it only twice (November 15 and March 12) and both verified.
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DISCLAIMER 1: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.
DISCLAIMER 2: The areas outlined in these images are an approximation subject to human error, and should be taken at face value. They are the result of an amalgamation of the GFS forecast model, SPC convective outlooks, and my personal opinion. I am not a professional graphic designer, nor am I a certified meteorologist, and errors may be visible in this imagery which may or may not pertain to the forecast area. Do not use these graphics as a basis for future decisions regarding lives or property, under any circumstances. Thank you.
DISCLAIMER 2: The areas outlined in these images are an approximation subject to human error, and should be taken at face value. They are the result of an amalgamation of the GFS forecast model, SPC convective outlooks, and my personal opinion. I am not a professional graphic designer, nor am I a certified meteorologist, and errors may be visible in this imagery which may or may not pertain to the forecast area. Do not use these graphics as a basis for future decisions regarding lives or property, under any circumstances. Thank you.
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WaitingForSiren
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wx247
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Hmm... siren, you look to be a little east of my current thinking. Care to discuss why you have your risk where you do? My main concern is the models are trying to move the system way too fast. Timing is off IMHO.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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WaitingForSiren
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wx247
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WaitingForSiren wrote:I have a feeling the storms will develop further out/along the warm front with this particular storm. Also, if a surge of dry air comes in it should limit potential far west. I dont think I am that far east IMO.
I didn't mean to come off sounding rude (if I did)... I was just curious as to your reasoning. Thanks for your explanation.
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CrazyC83 wrote:I've still not 100% confident, but it is a decision between predicting a March 12-style outbreak and a Super Outbreak redux...
I think a comparison to the Super Outbreak may be a bit much, although a repeat of 3/12 isn't too farfetched. This actually reminds me a lot more of the outbreak on 5/24/04, during which an F1 tornado caused moderate damage in my county, except it'll take place a bit further east. I'd be surprised if we don't see a High Risk area replacing the current Moderate area, and the moderate area becoming larger in the next two or three SPC outlooks. Regardless, any Tornado Watches we see tomorrow will almost certainly be PDS, since this IS a particularly dangerous situation. Same goes for next Wed-Fri's outbreak if confidence remains as high as it is.
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weatherlover427
Here we go with our first watch of the day...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 235 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST
PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 127...
DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD AT 45 KTS ACROSS
SWRN MO WITH REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTEND LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25045.
...RACY/EVANS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 235 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST
PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 127...
DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD AT 45 KTS ACROSS
SWRN MO WITH REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTEND LATER THIS
MORNING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 25045.
...RACY/EVANS
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weatherlover427
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT -
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES - LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHEAST IOWA ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY MISSOURI
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA - THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
INTENSE WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL TRAIL A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST - NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM - A WARM FRONT NOW SEPARATING COOLER AND DRIER SURFACE AIR NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS TO DEVELOP NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SCATTERED - MAINLY NON - SEVERE - THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST - NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. HOWEVER - ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS LATER THIS MORNING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM FAR EASTERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS LATER TODAY. THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS - WHICH COULD REMAIN LONG - LIVED THIS EVENING. TORNADOES - VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO - TELEVISION - AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES - WARNINGS - AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..EVANS.. 04/02/2006
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT -
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES - LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHEAST IOWA ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY MISSOURI
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA - THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
INTENSE WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIVE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL TRAIL A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST - NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM - A WARM FRONT NOW SEPARATING COOLER AND DRIER SURFACE AIR NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS TO DEVELOP NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
SCATTERED - MAINLY NON - SEVERE - THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST - NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. HOWEVER - ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS LATER THIS MORNING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM FAR EASTERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS LATER TODAY. THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS - WHICH COULD REMAIN LONG - LIVED THIS EVENING. TORNADOES - VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO - TELEVISION - AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES - WARNINGS - AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..EVANS.. 04/02/2006
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weatherlover427
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
- THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI - SOUTHEAST IOWA - MUCH OF ILLINOIS - SOUTHWEST INDIANA - AND WESTERN KENTUCKY - .
- THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN FRINGES OF THE PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS -
- SYNOPSIS - MID - LEVEL SHORT - WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A 70 - PLUS KT H5 JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH - WITH THE CORE OF THIS JET EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
AT THE SURFACE - LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER ERN NEB SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME - EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWER MI AS A 990 MB CYCLONE. WARM FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND SEWD ACROSS MO INTO THE SERN U.S. SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH TIME - ALLOWING MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS MO DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON - AND THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD SAG MORE SLOWLY SWD - LINGERING ACROSS AR AND TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS - POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP THIS PERIOD - CENTERED ON THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD/NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION COMPLICATES THE FORECAST DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION - IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY AFTERNOON - ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING TO COMMENCE. PRESUMING THIS OCCURS - 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN - LAYER CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR - AIDED BY NWD ADVECTION OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MID - LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON - - LIKELY FROM SERN IA SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF MO AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEEP - LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION - AS POTENT MID - LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP - LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS - LOW - LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG - - PARTICULARLY FROM ERN IA SWD ACROSS ERN MO AND IL NEAR AND SE OF SURFACE LOW. DEGREE OF LOW - LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH MOIST/MODERATELY - UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL LIKELY OCCUR - A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG - LIVED. ADDITIONALLY - LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
WITH TIME - STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR - - PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE VEERED/UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD - MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY EVOLVE/MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD - WITH SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 03/12Z.
..GOSS.. 04/02/2006
- THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI - SOUTHEAST IOWA - MUCH OF ILLINOIS - SOUTHWEST INDIANA - AND WESTERN KENTUCKY - .
- THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN FRINGES OF THE PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS -
- SYNOPSIS - MID - LEVEL SHORT - WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A 70 - PLUS KT H5 JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH - WITH THE CORE OF THIS JET EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS.
AT THE SURFACE - LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER ERN NEB SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME - EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWER MI AS A 990 MB CYCLONE. WARM FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND SEWD ACROSS MO INTO THE SERN U.S. SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH TIME - ALLOWING MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS MO DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON - AND THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD SAG MORE SLOWLY SWD - LINGERING ACROSS AR AND TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS - POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP THIS PERIOD - CENTERED ON THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD/NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH THIS INITIAL CONVECTION COMPLICATES THE FORECAST DUE TO ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION - IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY AFTERNOON - ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING TO COMMENCE. PRESUMING THIS OCCURS - 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN - LAYER CAPE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR - AIDED BY NWD ADVECTION OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MID - LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON - - LIKELY FROM SERN IA SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF MO AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEEP - LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION - AS POTENT MID - LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP - LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS - LOW - LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG - - PARTICULARLY FROM ERN IA SWD ACROSS ERN MO AND IL NEAR AND SE OF SURFACE LOW. DEGREE OF LOW - LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH MOIST/MODERATELY - UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL LIKELY OCCUR - A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG - LIVED. ADDITIONALLY - LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
WITH TIME - STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR - - PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHERE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE VEERED/UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD - MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT MAY EVOLVE/MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD - WITH SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 03/12Z.
..GOSS.. 04/02/2006
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weatherlover427
FWIW, here is the Day 4 - 8 outlook from 1:24 CDT this morning:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF STRONG TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO DO SO WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CA ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4-5. THE
TROUGH SHOULD THEN MOVE ENEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DAYS 6-7. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AMONG MAJOR MODELS REGARDING MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DIVERGES
CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 7 WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS TOWARD MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY THIS TIME FRAME.
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
BELT OF 80KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND OVERSPREADING THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE PLAINS
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS INTO THE SRN/SERN STATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
..CARBIN.. 04/02/2006
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF STRONG TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO DO SO WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CA ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4-5. THE
TROUGH SHOULD THEN MOVE ENEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DAYS 6-7. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AMONG MAJOR MODELS REGARDING MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DIVERGES
CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 7 WHILE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS TOWARD MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY THIS TIME FRAME.
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
BELT OF 80KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EAST WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND OVERSPREADING THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE PLAINS
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS INTO THE SRN/SERN STATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
..CARBIN.. 04/02/2006
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conestogo_flood
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my predictions.
Today could be a long day ahead, but the storm line formation is a big question. Will we see supercells or a squall line? The overall lack of confidence has prevented a Level 5 alert from being issued, despite the potential being there. The main threat has also moved southward, into the lower Ohio Valley.
Tomorrow will really depend on today - but the worst area will be the Southeast coast from about the southern Delmarva to near Wilmington, NC and inland to the Raleigh-Durham area. It seems the SPC is downplaying it somewhat, but things could change...
Today could be a long day ahead, but the storm line formation is a big question. Will we see supercells or a squall line? The overall lack of confidence has prevented a Level 5 alert from being issued, despite the potential being there. The main threat has also moved southward, into the lower Ohio Valley.
Tomorrow will really depend on today - but the worst area will be the Southeast coast from about the southern Delmarva to near Wilmington, NC and inland to the Raleigh-Durham area. It seems the SPC is downplaying it somewhat, but things could change...
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