Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..

[conestogo_flood]

What times are the SPC outlooks updated. I can't figure out the times they use. 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC. Any help?

[wxmann_91]

Day 1 - 6Z, 13Z, 1630Z, 20Z
Day 2 - 8Z, 1730Z
Day 3 - 11Z

[conestogo_flood]

Lol, actually, what I meant was in central time. Like 900am or something.

[wxmann_91]

Day 1 - 1 AM CDT, 8 AM CDT, 11:30 AM CDT, 3 PM CDT
Day 2 - 3 AM CDT, 12:30 AM CDT
Day 3 - 6 AM CDT

[CrazyC83]

The next one should come out shortly. I think they also issue special updates when something drastically changes.

[weatherlover427]

Here we go guys!



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF
WACO TEXAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS E CENTRAL/NE TX AND
SPREAD TOWARD NW LA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CAP...STRONG INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG/...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES...MERGERS AND SMALL BOW
FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...THOMPSON

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm hoping that with the cap in Texas beginning to fall apart, that we can get a few good cells down into the Houston area today!

[CrazyC83]

That's at the southern end of the long line of storms...I wonder if supercells will form in Texas?

Tornado Watch 130 (PDS?) will likely be issued in Missouri soon.

[conestogo_flood]

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
EXTREME W CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF OTTUMWA
IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 129...

DISCUSSION...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD FROM ERN
KS TO WRN MO...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ENEWD
ACROSS FAR NW MO AND SW IA. E OF THE LOW...THE WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING NWD INTO SRN IA. THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO AND SRN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BECOMING MORE PROBABLE WITH TIME ALONG THE N-S REMNANT
DRYLINE THAT IS MOVING INTO WRN MO. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
E OF THE DRYLINE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL TEND TO BE
MAXIMIZED FOR STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TOWARD NE
MO/SE IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MO.
OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

It is listed as 60% chance of tornadoes in the watch, 30% chance of strong or violent tornadoes. Not quite PDS level. This isn't the primary threat area though.

[wxmann_91]

Today probably isn't going to be a big svr wx day as first predicted. Winds have veered southwesterly in the warm sector, mixing out the dewpoints and killing directional shear. Upon initiation storms should form into a squall line.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 021915Z - 022045Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A NEW WW
MAY BE NEEDED BY AROUND 21Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 60S DEW POINTS IS NOW
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN
BASE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THE
PRESENT TIME...BUT IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT AS
IMMINENT AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...MODELS
SUGGEST EROSION OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING. THIS
MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.

STRONG SHEAR NEAR 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IN STRONGER
CELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL
COULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...WHERE SURFACE FLOW MAY MAINTAIN A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..KERR.. 04/02/2006


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

35569341 36029307 36339245 36519155 36309097 35839067
35009070 34529099 33819118 33219219 33099276 33209379
33769402 34459416 34979381

[CrazyC83]

Storms quickly popping up in central Missouri - at the western end of the maximum threat area...

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch 132 and 133 just issued...covering a large area from Southeast Iowa to Central Arkansas. No PDS's yet.

Several Tornado Warnings are coming out too. Could be a long evening folks! Did the SPC UNDERESTIMATE today?

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 357 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA. * UNTIL 415 PM CDT. * AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR ELDON...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEOSAUQUA. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am ready for SE Texas to get a nice severe outbreak! It seems like it has been so quiet here this year (except for one warning last week), and this entire next week will feature only 20% or lower chances of storms and nearly no hope for severe weather... What a boring weather period we are having down here...

[CrazyC83]

BREAKING: Tornado likely near St. Louis

The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
St. Charles County in east central Missouri
St. Louis County in east central Missouri
St. Louis city in east central Missouri

* until 530 PM CDT

* at 446 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm with strong rotation 9 miles southwest of
Valley Park... moving northeast at 50 mph.


* Locations impacted include...
Richmond Heights...
Brentwood...
Clayton...
Maplewood...
Hillsdale...
Uplands Park...
Riverview...
Northwoods...
Bellefontaine Neighbors...
Spanish Lake...

In addition... cstorm spotters have reported a possible tornado in St.
Peters moving northeast at 50 mph.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT Sunday evening for
west central Illinois and eastern Missouri. A Tornado Watch also
remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT Sunday evening for southwestern
Illinois and southeastern Missouri.

Lat... Lon 3886 9078 3836 9037 3857 9023 3877 9018
3886 9018 3892 9031 3887 9060

[Gorky]

The storm down in Arkansas nw of Little Rock is showing a nice hook, nice rotation, and is now showing a TVS. Looks like one of the better discrete cells around at the moment.

[CrazyC83]

I'm listening to http://www.kmox.com to hear the storm system. You could also go to http://www.ksdk.com/weather which has a live stream...