Nogaps and GFS still have wave in their runs from africa

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 6:23 am

http://152.80.49.205/PUBLIC/

I haved followed these 2 models in the past days and they have a strong tropical wave moving from africa westward.It is amazing that in early june models are picking up waves like this but will they continue with it all the way into the caribbean or will they drop it in the next runs?

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:55 am

I just dont see what there seeing....

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 9:16 am

That wave is still inside africa.

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 9:19 am

oh ya, sorry i knew that much

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 03, 2003 11:02 am

The NOGAPS is clearly more aggressive in developing a closed low with 25 knot winds ... meanwhile, the GFS looks to develop more of an inverted trough ...

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 6:28 am

http://152.80.49.205/PUBLIC/

The GFS is now more agressive than nogaps as it mantains a low pressure with this wave till 40w on june 10.Nogaps eliminates the low pressure but mantains the wave moving west.

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote:http://152.80.49.205/PUBLIC/

The GFS is now more agressive than nogaps as it mantains a low pressure with this wave till 40w on june 10.Nogaps eliminates the low pressure but mantains the wave moving west.

I see that luis..thanks..You like the model link I see.. :wink:

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 7:33 am

Yes good link to the models thanks rainband. :wink:

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 8:53 am

cycloneye wrote:Yes good link to the models thanks rainband.

I have some more if you want them!!! :wink:

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 8:58 am

Bring them on.

Rainband · #11 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:05 am

http://mrd3.mmm.ucar.edu/~pietrych/www/avn.html http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/models/ http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/models/mainmodel.htm theres a few :wink:

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:27 am

Thanks rainband and now I and others can get more information about the models.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:38 am

cycloneye wrote:Thanks rainband and now I and others can get more information about the models.

Anytime cyc..Your Welcome!!!! :wink:

Derecho · #14 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 2:01 pm

ONE INTERESTING NOTE IN
THE FORECAST...THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST
CURRENTLY LIES ON TOP OF A NEW TRPCL WAVE MOVING W OFF THE COAST
AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT SOME GOOD CONVECTION PRIMARILY WITHIN IN THE ITCZ.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 2:02 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Chad you were asking where was that wave the models are agressive with.Well it is comming out of africa now although on pics it not looks ferocious but let's see what happens with it as the TPC made a mention of it in it's discussion.

Derecho · #16 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:31 pm

NEW TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 17W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
THIS WAVE PASSED BAMAKO IN MALI TWO DAYS AGO AND A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IN THE CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 15W AND 21W.

It does seem to be rotating.

Actually, systems like this probably have met TD criteria in previous years (I can think of one June one that should have) but NHC has real reluctance to waste an advisory start on a system that has perhaps 24 hours to live, and NO hope of making TS.

Inevitably shear and SSTs wipe these out in June.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 08, 2003 6:59 pm

When I made this thread I posted these models that showed 5 days ago this wave with a low and now it looks that the GFS and NOGAPS were correct in their runs about this low but then losing it at around 40w although mantaining the wave or inverted trough moving west.

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jun 08, 2003 7:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:When I made this thread I posted these models that showed 5 days ago this wave with a low and now it looks that the GFS and NOGAPS were correct in their runs about this low but then losing it at around 40w although mantaining the wave or inverted trough moving west.

Yep. I was pretty impressed with the performance of the NOGAPS and GFS on this ... in about 36 hours from now, the low should become an open wave and/or an inverted trough axis.

Nogaps and GFS still have wave in their runs from africa

Nogaps and GFS still have wave in their runs from africa

TAFB is at least mildly interested....

TAFB Weighs in again..

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