SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[gatorcane]

Yep, the GOM will be a hotbath soon

[NONAME]

the trough wont be getting into the gulf and It's not very cold behind it.

[benny]

I don't know if this has been mentioned before.. but beware of taking any heart in SST anomalies that happen on a daily basis. Too much can happen from day to day that doesn't give any real representation of what is occurring.. more like noise for sure. I would take a longer average... at least a week... to get a sense of what is really going on. For example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is well-known to change wind/pressure patterns and affect SSTs in that way. For that reason I would typically recommend averaging over the past month (anomaly-wise) to get a real sense of what is happening. The shelf waters in the GOM warm up no matter what is happening with fronts... the sun angle gets brutal in the next month or two. I expect the monday weekly SST analyses to show some warming in the tropical Atlantic Ocean... which is the area to watch for those who like tropical cyclones

As far as La Nina goes.. it has weakened some over the past month.. they typically do at this time of the year as the sun moves directly over the equator and has a tendency to warm the waters no matters what. i think once the southern pacific itcz goes away in late april it may start to cool again (because then the enhanced trades would flow straight to the n pacific itcz rather than being cutoff to the south). that is just speculation though as i haven't seen any research there.

[cycloneye]

The Weak La Nina looks a little bit smaller in area coverage than in the past 2 weeks especially west of 160w at el nino 4 area.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Waters are warming up (80 F+) east of the Lesser Antilles west of 50w around 14n where this bouy is located.

[drezee]

26C at 46W!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

[gatorcane]

[JonathanBelles]

[cycloneye]

The latest update of the Atlantic anomalies show a warming trend and that is expected as the sun angle is everyday higher.THe only area that has cooler anomalies is the Western Atlantic east of the U.S coast.

[Scorpion]

Cape Verde has warmed significantly. Before we were thinking that storms would remain weak due to the cold SST's. Not anymore.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's only gonna get increasingly hotter from now on I think. As soon as shear relaxes a little I bet an invest will pop up quickly.

[windycity]

Yep, I expect we will at least see a tropical wave with potental!!

[HouTXmetro]

Look at the Northern Gulf Coast. Even after a significant late cold front the water is still amazingly above normal. Light's out if this trend continues and a storm threatens the TX-LA coast.

[cycloneye]

Impressive graphic of the currents in the Atlantic.



The Gulf of Mexico currents.

[MiamiensisWx]

Atlantic waters throughout are rapidly warming up. Look at the La Nina... it is almost entirely gone!

[wxman57]

But look how cool the NW Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic is compared to this time last year. There's not much difference across the Gulf from a year ago, maybe a little cooler this year.

[MiamiensisWx]

wxman57, my graphic is the latest one. It shows that waters are slowly warming up, even in the western Atlantic. By the way, do you think we may have neutral conditions this year?

[CHRISTY]

yes capeverdewave there is strong chance we may end up with neutral conditions!

[windycity]

If that happens, you were right when you predicted neutral conditions 3 months ago, CVW ! Now, lets see if that happens. Its not good for us, good news for the carolinas.

[tailgater]

Impressive graphic of the currents in the Atlantic.



The Gulf of Mexico currents.

Can you find the big bird(dragon) in the gulf ?