Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

WaitingForSiren · #1 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:06 am

GFS and now even the NAM (the NAM for crying out loud!!) show an intense troughing over the central US next wednesday-friday...with Thursday likely being the biggest severe day as the trough will weaken significantly on friday. However, thursday appears to be a major outbreak, probably rivaling todays outbreak...any thoughts on this?

#2 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:08 am

Too early to tell. By Tuesday, I should know better. Hopefully the SPC will call this one better than today's blunder.

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:16 am

I noticed that acouple of days ago on gfs

#4 Postby **wx247** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:21 am

I want to watch over the next couple of runs before I get too excited, but it does appear that Thursday could be another significant severe weather day. It has been quite a busy last couple of weeks and this trend looks to continue for the forseeable future.

Weatherfreak14 · #5 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:39 am

To early to tell but models are saying its possible.

Skywatch_NC · #6 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:30 am

Seems lately that Thursdays have been the day for significant severe outbreaks...exception of yesterday.

****************************

Thunderstorms possible here in NC again (after today) Friday night through Saturday.

Eric

#7 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:47 pm

It seems that it goes in sequence - first round Thursday into Friday, second round Sunday into Monday.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:50 pm

Some of the models are thinking that this one could be larger then the one we just had. We will have to watch this closely.

Also is there any reports of confirmed tornadoes yet?

#9 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:51 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Some of the models are thinking that this one could be larger then the one we just had. We will have to watch this closely.

Also is there any reports of confirmed tornadoes yet?

Nope, they are still surveying. However, most of them were obviously tornadoes. (I only consider it "confirmed" once the surveys are in and a Fujita rating is given)

tidesong · #10 Postby **tidesong** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 1:11 pm

I think they're actually saying we could see some severe stuff here in Wisconsin in the latter part of the week. It'd be our first for the season.

I have a feeling it's going to be a very long and busy season.... :eek:

WaitingForSiren · #11 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:33 pm

As you can see, I do have wisconsin outlined. Folks, this is going to be a nasty one. I think this event could come close to that march 1990 tornado outbreak, in a similar area as well, but maybe a little further north overall.

conestogo_flood · #12 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:16 pm

What date is next Thursday?

#13 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:24 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:What date is next Thursday?

Thursday is April 6. With a forecast like that it would more likely be a 2 or 3 day event. You might get it on Friday.

I can't draw maps at this point since I have little confidence in a 4-day forecast. I'd be drawing a Level 1 threat for an incredibly large area from James Bay to the Gulf of Mexico at this point...

Weatherfreak14 · #14 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:22 pm

I think we will have a better picture by end of tommrrow. :ggreen:

#15 Postby **simplykristi** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:03 pm

WaitingForSiren wrote:

As you can see, I do have wisconsin outlined. Folks, this is going to be a nasty one. I think this event could come close to that march 1990 tornado outbreak, in a similar area as well, but maybe a little further north overall.

That does not bode well for the metro KC area. :eek:

Kristi

#16 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:19 pm

simplykristi wrote:
WaitingForSiren wrote:

As you can see, I do have wisconsin outlined. Folks, this is going to be a nasty one. I think this event could come close to that march 1990 tornado outbreak, in a similar area as well, but maybe a little further north overall.

That does not bode well for the metro KC area.

Kristi

With those predictions, this is a 30-state, 3-day Mega Outbreak...with tornadoes from northern Ontario to central Florida and over to southern Texas...

I'm definitely still in serious doubt about this one, but the potential is there.

WaitingForSiren · #17 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:55 pm

simplykristi wrote:
WaitingForSiren wrote:

As you can see, I do have wisconsin outlined. Folks, this is going to be a nasty one. I think this event could come close to that march 1990 tornado outbreak, in a similar area as well, but maybe a little further north overall.

That does not bode well for the metro KC area.

Kristi

Yeah but keep in mind, this is a long ways out and a lot can change.

#18 Postby **simplykristi** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 8:01 pm

I know that lots of things can change between now and then. But, at this moement, it looks like it does not look good.

Kristi

conestogo_flood · #19 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 8:11 pm

By the end of the year, a saying will develop for tornadoes. Something like "theres a hit the cellar storm comin'". Also, people will be so sick of tornado warnings, it will become a chore to head for shelter, more than a safety concern.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #20 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 8:30 pm

Thois thing on the gfs is looking like a beast. I say it will put Sunday to shame.

Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

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