Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - April 3

#21 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Do you have any friends houses that you can go to?

Yes I do..5 minutes from me. If anything significant comes this way and theres time thats where im headed. Assuming they are home :eek:

tidesong · #22 Postby **tidesong** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:13 pm

george_r_1961 wrote:Yes I do..5 minutes from me. If anything significant comes this way and theres time thats where im headed. Assuming they are home

Yikes. Call first!!

#23 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:22 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
415 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MUCH OF MARYLAND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MUCH OF VIRGINIA
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 415 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...STRONG TROUGH WILL SWING EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS EVENING PROVING VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THE APPALACHIANS EWD. TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE EWD AS INITIAL STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AS THEY SPREAD EWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

#24 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:31 pm

That's huge, but not surprising.

#25 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:33 pm

Yes thats a large watch area. The sun is out again and that will further contribute to the destabilzation. An outbreak would not surprise me although I do not see anything yet near me on radar. Thanks everyone for your concern.

#26 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:37 pm

You'd likely be among the last to get it, except for some poor mariners out at sea...

#27 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:38 pm

figures...i say im in the clear and 1/2 an hour later i go under a tornado watch...time to set my NOAA Wx Radio... :roll:

#28 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:39 pm

SPC AC 032013

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT MON APR 03 2006

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN/S-CENTRAL
VA...EXTREME S-CENTRAL MD...NC...NRN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN AL TO
CENTRAL PA...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM
SRN ONT SWD TO ERN TN -- SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SEWD FROM NWRN ONT.
SMALLER SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH BASE OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH
OVER SRN APPALACHIANS WILL EJECT NEWD OVER ERN NC/SERN VA EARLY
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED/OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD SERN
QUE. OCCLUDED FRONT - NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN ONT ACROSS NWRN PA --
SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NY AND NRN PA THROUGH EVENING...WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER
MID-ATLANTIC...VA...CAROLINAS...NRN GA AND AL. WARM FRONT --
ANALYZED FROM SWRN PA SEWD ACROSS ERN VA TO SRN CHESAPEAKE
BAY...SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS POTOMAC RIVER AND INTO PORTIONS
SRN/CENTRAL MD.

...TIDEWATER REGION THROUGH CAROLINAS/GA...
REF WW 147 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION
ACROSS PORTIONS SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT ZONES OF
GA/CAROLINAS. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 421 AND WW 148 FOR NEAR-TERM
POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL/NRN NC INTO SRN VA.

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...AND TORNADOES STILL ARE A CONCERN FROM
COASTAL NC INTO PORTIONS VA/SRN MD TIDEWATER REGION. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MIXING-OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F
NOW COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF PIEDMONT FROM VA-GA. SUCH DRYING IN
PROSPECTIVE SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY RESULT IN TORNADO POTENTIAL BEING
REDUCED...BY ENCOURAGING EVAPORATIVELY COOLED OUTFLOW PLUMES IN
SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO ENCOURAGES DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATION THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS. THEREFORE WE WILL MAINTAIN MDT RISK...WHOSE
THRESHOLD ALREADY WAS BASED ON DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE ACROSS ENTIRE
REGION -- EVEN WHERE FLOW HAS VEERED TO SWLY -- GIVEN STRENGTH OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...GREATEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR SHOULD BE FROM ERN NC THROUGH ERN
VA AND PERHAPS SRN MD. LARGEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE
SHUNTED EWD TOWARD MORE ROBUST MOISTURE INVOF COAST AND NEAR WARM
FRONT...WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW ALSO ENHANCES DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...AND SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
MANY AREAS.

EARLIER MCS HAS LEFT BEHIND POOL OF OUTFLOW AIR IN ERN NC THAT IS
BEING HEATED/MODIFIED ATTM. LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL
ERODE WRN EDGE OF THIS PLUME SOMEWHAT...BUT VORTICITY/SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN MAXIMIZED FROM THIS PLUME NWD TO WARM FRONTAL ZONE. ANY
RELATIVELY DISCRETE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY INTERACT WITH EITHER FAVORABLY MODIFIED OUTFLOW
AIR OR WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED FLOW...ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS...AND
LOWER LCL ARE EXPECTED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER BILLOWS
OVER E-CENTRAL VA ATTM...INDICATING CAPPING...HOWEVER...AIR MASS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH INSOLATION OCCURRING IN WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTIVE/CLOUD AREA.

..N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...
ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS...INVOF OCCLUDED/COLD FRONTAL ZONE...SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS PA/WRN NY THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT IS WIND DAMAGE. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION... ISOLATED HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/MESOCYCLONES. REF WW 146 AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM SITUATION. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO LOW THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF ERN PA...CENTRAL NY AND
BEYOND.

..EDWARDS.. 04/03/2006

#29 Postby **badger70** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:55 pm

Hope everyone out East can stay safe. It's a very violent weather system.

Edit: I got family around Asheville.

Weatherfreak14 · #30 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:19 pm

Yes I agree, hope everyone stay sfe and stay tuned.

#31 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:31 pm

one hour ago, nill t-storms...now...OMG...almost every cell is severe...looks like im going to be slammed twice...once from cells in SC, then from Raleigh area...!!! :eek:

#32 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:33 pm

Uh, watch out Baltimore!!! There's an ugly line right now that's bearing down on them and they're under a severe thunderstorm warning and tornado watch! :eek:

conestogo_flood · #33 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:34 pm

Is any tornadoes going to happen? Or is the risk diminishing?

#34 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:36 pm

We'll have to wait and see. With the sun setting, it should lessen the severity of the storms, but that line approaching Baltimore has a bow-echo to it.

#35 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:37 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Is any tornadoes going to happen? Or is the risk diminishing?

Well the loss of daytime heating is working for us now but the amount of shear and lift IMO is still enough for severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes.

#36 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:44 pm

The storms for the most part are taking on a linear quality but there is one cell on the NC/VA line near Kerr Lake that bears watching since it may become tornadic soon.

whereverwx · #37 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:47 pm

Wow, those were really intense storms. The wind and the rain were blinding, the lightning was significant, and at one point, even the hail was accumulating.

#38 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:50 pm

I'm seeking shelter, severe storm to my southwest is kinda migrating this way...aint taking no chance...

#39 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:51 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I'm seeking shelter, severe storm to my southwest is kinda migrating this way...aint taking no chance...

Stay safe..check back as soon as u can

#40 Postby **simplykristi** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:05 pm

Baltimore is getting pounded right now, according to the NWS radar out of that area.

Kristi

Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - April 3

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