Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

cheezyWXguy · #21 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:02 pm

ya, according to one of my area's AFD's a secondary piece of energy may break off of the storm system and pull south into my area, bringing a slight risk of severe weather to my area

#22 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:07 pm

the gfs says we have a very good chance of rain and TWC says i have a 60% chance, so i'm happy, but i wish the lightning and tornadoes werent involved

#23 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:27 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Thois thing on the gfs is looking like a beast. I say it will put Sunday to shame.

If those hold true, it could be a legendary event...

conestogo_flood · #24 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:36 pm

Not to wishcast, but I almost want a legendary event. Oh the double life of a storm chaser.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #25 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:42 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Not to wishcast, but I almost want a legendary event. Oh the double life of a storm chaser.

Me to I went this to be the super outbreak two...So I can watch in amazement.

Extremeweatherguy · #26 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:42 pm

I only want it to be a legendary event if it can include Houston! SE Texas has been so quiet this spring! We need some severe action!

wxmann_91 · #27 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:42 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Not to wishcast, but I almost want a legendary event. Oh the double life of a storm chaser.

Oh so true. The ecstacy and natural high of seeing a mega-supercell (such as the Six-Stater on March 12 and yesterday night's beasts) is unmatched with any other weather phenomenon except hurricanes IMO. Then again, you know that what is underneath is as close as hell as you ever get...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #28 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:47 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
conestogo_flood wrote:Not to wishcast, but I almost want a legendary event. Oh the double life of a storm chaser.

Oh so true. The ecstacy and natural high of seeing a mega-supercell (such as the Six-Stater on March 12 and yesterday night's beasts) is unmatched with any other weather phenomenon except hurricanes IMO. Then again, you know that what is underneath is as close as hell as you ever get...

Nothing on earth would hype me more then seeing a cat5 move into New york or Miami. Or seeing another super outbreak but bigger!!! WAAHOOO

cheezyWXguy · #29 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:06 pm

Do you want total destruction to major cities or something, matt? You really wanna watch a CAT 5 hurricane destroy NYC or put another Andrew into Miami? I find that hard to believe

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #30 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:17 pm

Not really but to watch amazing weather systems is something I do.

WaitingForSiren · #31 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Mon Apr 03, 2006 11:48 pm

lol...while I definitely agree seeing monster supercells on radar is an amazing natural high for me, I am not a wishcaster. I am honestly just amazed by the whole phenomenon of severe weather. I mean how something completely natural can be so complicated and possible to forecast. Its just...amazing. And seeing all these different weather systems unfold is a great experience.

jkt21787 · #32 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 12:23 am

WaitingForSiren wrote:lol...while I definitely agree seeing monster supercells on radar is an amazing natural high for me, I am not a wonderful forecaster. I am honestly just amazed by the whole phenomenon of severe weather. I mean how something completely natural can be so complicated and possible to forecast. Its just...amazing. And seeing all these different weather systems unfold is a great experience.

Oh, don't be so hard on yourself! :wink:

I know what you meant to say, and physically typed, though. :wink:

Weatherfreak14 · #33 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 6:54 am

I would like to see a superoutbreak like may of 99.

WaitingForSiren · #34 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:07 am

I meant to say I am not a wishcaster...lol.

WaitingForSiren · #35 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:08 am

wtf...i said " wish caster" and it came out "wonderful forecaster"...ugh...lol.

#36 Postby **wx247** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:11 am

Yeah, and I hope it marches right through the major cities of Kansas City, Des Moines, Omaha, Dallas, Little Rock,and St. Louis as F5's. Watching that on webcams and GR Level 3 would be so cool!!!! :eek:

Let's be level headed everyone. It is amazing to watch mother nature at work, but you can't wish for outbreaks like these without causing devestation and destruction. I follow severe weather because I am fascinated by it... but all too often I come in close contact with it. If I never saw another tornado, it would be okay by me.

Live through Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Katrina, May 4th, 2003 tornado outbreak... live through a direct hit by softball sized hail... let it kill someone close to you... then tell me that you want a superoutbreak. :cry:

I am not trying to be rude, but you have to realize the human side of the storm, too. If you forget that... you are forgetting the most important part of the whole equation.

WaitingForSiren · #37 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:33 am

Yeah, despite how much I loe watching major outbreaks unfold and all that, after hearing about the 27 + deaths caused my Mondays storm , I really hope the tornadoes on Thursday miss the major metropolitan areas. However, when a tornado misses a city, the public doesnt hear much about it...and that bothers me. People dont take tornadoes seriously enough.

#38 Postby **wx247** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:24 am

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah, despite how much I loe watching major outbreaks unfold and all that, after hearing about the 27 + deaths caused my Mondays storm , I really hope the tornadoes on Thursday miss the major metropolitan areas. However, when a tornado misses a city, the public doesnt hear much about it...and that bothers me. People dont take tornadoes seriously enough.

You are absolutely right and that is a shame!!

#39 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:36 am

Right now, it is looking like this could be REALLY bad. While the SPC has only shown a slight risk, it is at the top end of it - 30% and hatched - over a very large area, which is rare for a Day 3 forecast. This could be Super Outbreak II at this rate...

jkt21787 · #40 Postby **jkt21787** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:57 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Right now, it is looking like this could be REALLY bad. While the SPC has only shown a slight risk, it is at the top end of it - 30% and hatched - over a very large area, which is rare for a Day 3 forecast. This could be Super Outbreak II at this rate...

Sometimes these calls for a new "Super Outbreak" get out of control. Nothing against you whatsoever, though.

Just some people don't realize how big that outbreak was, and that there were probably way more than 148 tornadoes. Keep in mind the lack of technology then and NWS reporting techniques that probably failed to detect many, many weaker and shorter lived tornadoes. Current estimates from experts indicate there well may have been 200+ in that outbreak.

Atmospheric conditions leading up to it were perfect, not one flaw. I see some possible flaws in this system. Not that it won't be major or huge, but right now anyone trying to compare this (or any potential event) to the Super Outbreak is not comparing very accurately. Unfortunately its happening more and more recently.

Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

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