Unusually dry weather prompts fire warnings in FL

[zlaxier]

What was 1998 like for Hurricane activity in Florida? That was the last year the drought was that bad.

Get used to those brown lawns and the acrid odor and multiple dangers of wildfire.

Recently notorious for its hurricanes, Florida now is in the grip of historic, perilous dryness.

Fort Lauderdale and Hollywood experienced record low rainfall in March -- with Miami, Key West, Naples and nearly every other city in South Florida reporting unusually arid conditions.

The dry weather covers much of the state, has been around since the beginning of the year and is expected to persist at least through May.

In response, water managers are advising conservation and forestry experts and forecasters are issuing increasingly dire fire warnings. Forestry officials will brief Gov. Jeb Bush today on state preparations to respond to any widespread fires.

Last week, a wildfire in northwest Miami-Dade County closed Florida's Turnpike for several hours, creating major disruptions. Seven small fires erupted Sunday in southwest Miami-Dade and firefighters said they might have been intentionally set.

Experts said it was only the beginning.

''The next two months could bring extremely active fire conditions,'' said Mike Long, director of Florida's Division of Forestry. ``It is drier than people think it is.''

Said Rusty Pfost, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's South Florida office: ``It's going to get worse before it gets better. We need to be really careful.''

Here's why: In June and July 1998, after a similarly dry winter and spring, wildfires destroyed 337 houses and businesses in Florida, inflicted $600 million in damage and forced more than 50,000 people from their homes. Fire blackened nearly 500,000 acres that year.

Extensive fires also erupted in 1999 and 2000.

''These are the worst fire conditions we've had'' since then, Long said.

Fort Lauderdale received only .06 inches of rain last month, breaking a record that stood for more than 50 years. Only .02 inches sprinkled Hollywood, breaking a record set in 1979.

Less than half the normal rain fell in Miami last month, Naples had the fifth driest March on record, and only 1.04 inches of rain moistened Key West between Nov. 21 and March 31, making it the driest 130-day period at Key West International Airport since it opened in 1958.

One reason for the aridity: the return of La Niña in the Pacific, a phenomenon that produces cooler than usual sea temperatures and often produces dry springs in South Florida -- followed by relatively active hurricane seasons.

But the next hurricane season is a problem to be considered later. Now, we have to be wary of wildfire.

Many areas still are plagued by fallen trees and other flammable debris produced by the last few batches of hurricanes.

Tons of brittle hurricane detritus still sit along various roads, mostly in deep South Miami-Dade.

A spokeswoman for Miami-Dade's Department of Solid Waste said 150,000 cubic yards -- enough to fill more than 4,300 dump trucks -- have not been picked up. Most comes from commercial properties like nurseries that still are awaiting federal funds.

The county, which normally does not haul commercial trash, has scheduled meetings next week to discuss carting away the debris for special fees that can pose enormous expenses for private nursery owners.

At the moment, Lake Okeechobee is higher than usual and the rest of the region's water supply is in relatively good shape, according to Randy Smith, a spokesman for the South Florida Water Management District.

But experts there also are on high alert.

''We do have some areas around Hollywood and Hallandale where aquifer levels are a little below average,'' Smith said. ``The vast majority in Broward and Dade are about average, but that can change.

``We're strongly urging people to use all conservation measures.''

Forecasters offer only a modest chance of measurable rain this week -- possibly today or Wednesday. Even if it arrives, they and other experts said, the long-range outlook calls for below normal rainfall in South Florida through the spring.

''I think we are going to have a pretty active few months until we start into the summer rain patterns.'' Long said.

Herald Staff Writer Charles Rabin contributed to this report.

[gatorcane]

I don't like the part about la nina and FL having an active hurricane season

[Extremeweatherguy]

1998 did feature the famous Hurricane Mitch and Hurricane Georges, but it was also on the tail end of a massive El Nino which helped to moderate the season a bit.

[gatorcane]

1998 did feature the famous Hurricane Mitch and Hurricane Georges, but it was also on the tail end of a massive El Nino which helped to moderate the season a bit

If La Nina dominates the summer I would expect a Mitch, Wilma, or Katrina-like storm(s) to develop in the Caribbean and GOM.

[CHRISTY]

1998 did feature the famous Hurricane Mitch and Hurricane Georges, but it was also on the tail end of a massive El Nino which helped to moderate the season a bit

If La Nina dominates the summer I would expect a Mitch, Wilma, or Katrina-like storm(s) to develop in the Caribbean and GOM.

i agree with u boca and it might have to come threw florida first...

[HurricaneHunter914]

With the bermuda high in place an Allen type storm could come straight through Florida.

["Ice"]

Pensacola just broke a record for the driest March ever...

Edited to move to Usa forum with a link.

[SouthFloridawx]

Not trying to be mean but, why is this in the talking tropics board? I'm just saying maybe it belongs in the usa weather board.

[MortisFL]

Super dry here too on the west coast of FLA...best chance of rain is inland and even that is only 10-20% for now.

[boca]

I don't expect rain in April or May at this point. Mr. Bermuda high is stomping everything out.

[CHRISTY]

I don't expect rain in April or May at this point. Mr. Bermuda high is stomping everything out.

really dry air coming in next week!

[boca]

really dry air coming in next week! I can't imagine air dryer than the air we currently have right now.

[CHRISTY]

really dry air coming in next week! I can't imagine air dryer than the air we currently have right now.

yea i read of one of their discusions a few days ago...

[Javlin]

Not trying to be mean but, why is this in the talking tropics board? I'm just saying maybe it belongs in the usa weather board.

Some feel that the dry spring like conditions may lend credence to a possible event come hurricane season due in part to a certain synoptic pattern later.

[Patrick99]

Not trying to be mean but, why is this in the talking tropics board? I'm just saying maybe it belongs in the usa weather board.

Some feel that the dry spring like conditions may lend credence to a possible event come hurricane season due in part to a certain synoptic pattern later.

There's the infamous dry May theory. This is how things will shake out, IMO......FL will be bone dry until about Memorial Day (it often seems to mark the beginning of the rainy season) - high pressure will completely dominate our weather. I bet we will see a lot of red flag warnings. Then we'll get some stalled troughs in June drawing up deep moisture and giving us some rain. Then the high builds back in, leaving the SE open for business during the peak of hurricane season.

[dixiebreeze]

really dry air coming in next week! I can't imagine air dryer than the air we currently have right now.

Dry as a bone here, Boca. Humidity was just 30 percent today and Red Flag fire alerts are up. Breezy, too, which would make it worse in a brush fire.

[Camille_2_Katrina]

it's dry from Houston to Naples...
It's a dust bowl here on the Mississippi Coast
we have gotten less than half of our year to date.

we will get rain sooner or later though. It was like
this last year... and we ended up getting 18 feet!
(surge )

[Scorpion]

I like this weather. No complaints here. Bring on the dryness and heat.

[f5]

it's dry from Houston to Naples...
It's a dust bowl here on the Mississippi Coast
we have gotten less than half of our year to date.

we will get rain sooner or later though. It was like
this last year... and we ended up getting 18 feet!
(surge )

at least its nice clean up weather and there is plenty to clean up in south mississippi these days