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DISCLAIMER 2: The areas outlined in these images are an approximation subject to human error, and should be taken at face value. They are the result of an amalgamation of the GFS forecast model, SPC convective outlooks, and my personal opinion. I am not a professional graphic designer, nor am I a certified meteorologist, and errors may be visible in this imagery which may or may not pertain to the forecast area. Do not use these graphics as a basis for future decisions regarding lives or property, under any circumstances. Thank you.
The moderate risk area is pretty much a given. Even the SPC says to expect higher probabilities, they'd just have a hard time getting them out today, like senorpepr pointed out. High risk is possible but not certain or even likely at this stage, only time will tell.
Higher probabilities than 30% definitely exist within the outlook area, but the placement is questionable. I'll wait 24 hours for some more GFS data and the SPC's day 2 outlook for Thursday before I try anything more specific than this.
