Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

WaitingForSiren · #61 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm looking at this in this looks huge. I say a thousand plus hail and wind reports with 100 plus tornadoes.

Unless we get a serial derecho, breaking 100 is extremely difficult. Even may 30 2004 and last sunday didnt do that, and both had widespread wind damage. If we can get numerous sups, I could see 400 hail reports at max and 100 tornado reports, though. Overal...around 700 reports possible. Thats all my opinion.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #62 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:35 pm

We just had 800 plus severe weather reports this sunday.

Tamora Mennenga · #63 Postby **Tamora Mennenga** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:54 pm

DFW (channel 8) Met was saying last night that the cap maybe to strong for thunderstorms, but tonight Troy was saying that the dynamics are changing and the cap has a good chance of weakening and we could be instore for some big storms. He said they would have a better idea tomorrow (Wednesday) as to how strong the cap maybe. :eek:

wxmann_91 · #64 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:59 pm

Wrong thread. :oops:

WaitingForSiren · #65 Postby **WaitingForSiren** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 8:28 pm

Why do you say that, Jim?

And i have made new maps for this event...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #66 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 8:58 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:We just had 800 plus severe weather reports this sunday.

Yup..

Compared to May 4th, 2003...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #67 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:01 pm

Wow its up to 70 tornadoe reports now. With 40 confirmed by Wiks.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #68 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:07 pm

The only one that beats it is 5-30-2004.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040530_rpts.html

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #69 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow its up to 70 tornadoe reports now. With 40 confirmed by Wiks.

Remember, tornado reports do not equal tornadoes. More than one report can reflect a single tornado. Secondly... Wikipedia isn't the trusted name in confirmed tornadoes.

wxman22 · #70 Postby **wxman22** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:09 pm

Heres my forcast:

DISCLAMER:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#71 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:12 pm

I've done most of the writing on the Wikipedia article, and I have ONLY confirmed tornadoes that have actually been posted on the NWS sites.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #72 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I've done most of the writing on the Wikipedia article, and I have ONLY confirmed tornadoes that have actually been posted on the NWS sites.

I'm not trying to discount your work. My point is A) not every wiki article is trustworthy and B) what if some yahoo (ie greatone) alters that page? The credibility isn't perfect.

#73 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:20 pm

That is very much true.

conestogo_flood · #74 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:20 pm

Oh well, people still use Wiki anyways. I say, go ahead with it.

#75 Postby **wx247** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:21 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The only one that beats it is 5-30-2004.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040530_rpts.html

Are you speaking of total reports or just tornadoes?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #76 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:24 pm

Total reports

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #77 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:38 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Oh well, people still use Wiki anyways. I say, go ahead with it.

Don't get me wrong, I respect the Wiki. It keeps me sane on those long, boring work shifts. However... caution must be exercised when using it. Wikipedia is like women... it can only be trusted so far. :wink:

Beam · #78 Postby **Beam** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 9:52 pm

wxman22 wrote:Heres my forcast:

DISCLAMER:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not trying to put you down or anything, but don't you think it's a tad early to try and firmly position a high risk area? Also, even in the most serious, major tornado outbreaks, Only a small percentage of the funnels reach F2 or greater strength. To say that anyone has a 45, or even a 15 percent of being affected by such a monstrous tornado, especially over such a vast geographical area, pretty much boils down to one of two things: -removed-, or lack of education on the matter. Or even both.

Again, I'm not trying to slam you, and I'm not trying to underestimate this system, but if you're looking for any credibility, posting a tornado risk map for Day 3 with such high probabilistics is a quick way to blow it, and saying that those probs are for an F2 or greater tornado is an even quicker way. Just a word to the wise.

#79 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:01 pm

The SPC never issues a High Risk for Day 3. While confidence is high that there will be a major outbreak, pinpointing it is difficult. I've got moderate to significant risk (Levels 2-3) for an enormous area, but no high or extreme risks yet.

cheezyWXguy · #80 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:03 pm

hey crazy, what do you think Dallas has in terms of severe weather in general

Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

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