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Recent snows not enough to end drought
By: Jo Baeza, The Independent 04/04/2006
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WHITE MOUNTAINS - Recent snow and rain in the White Mountains has given residents some relief from the long-term drought, but has not stopped its progress.
George Howard of the National Weather Service in Flagstaff said Friday, "Don't be fooled by localized heavy snowfall. Once we get away from the Mogollon Rim in either direction, the snowfall amounts reduce."
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The snow was a dry snow. The average snow water content has been less than 25 percent of normal this year. The total amount of actual precipitation measured in Alpine between October and March was 3.14 inches. That is only about a third of last year's actual precipitation in the same area, which was 9.17 inches.
The fire danger in Arizona usually begins in the desert at lower elevations, and that is the case this year. The Southwest Coordination Center on March 31 reported very dry and unstable conditions in southeastern Arizona. The Burro Fire in the Chiricahua Mountains southwest of Portal had reached 400 acres by Friday.
In the White Mountains the fire danger remains low to moderate because of recent precipitation, cool temperatures and fairly high relative humidity (RH). All fire restrictions on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest were lifted March 14.
The SW Coordination Center Daily Fire Behavior Report for March 31 reported winds from the Southwest 15-25 mph, with an RH of 20-40 percent in the White Mountains, and 10-20 percent in the lower elevations.
This week more cold, wet, windy weather is predicted. Thunderstorms are expected to occur with a 30 percent chance of precipitation and a low incidence of lightning activity. The fire behavior is predicted to be Very Low.
Additionally, the monsoons are predicted to come on time or early this year, probably starting in mid-July in the mountains. That comes with a warning from the National Weather Service: "Even though more rain may fall in summer, the winter precipitation is typically responsible for most of the water replenishment in our region."
The El Nino/La Nina conditions have shifted the past 10 years, bringing the long-term average precipitation down since 1996. The only above normal year for precipitation in the past decade was 1998, which was an El Nino winter. The NWS reports ominously that we could have "generally drier conditions over the next several decades."
The year of the Rodeo-Chediski Fire, 2002, was the driest year on record since records were started in 1898. This year is drier. There is a precipitation deficit with almost no snowpack. The snow measurement on Mt. Baldy last week was 2.6 inches.
The SW Coordination Center predicts fire season, April-July, will be above normal in terms of impact on firefighting resources in 2006. There will be an above normal potential for initial attack and large fire development, the Center predicts.
Because of the wet winter of 2004-2005, there is an abundance of fine herbaceous fuels - grass and brush - that can ignite easily when dry, shown tragically in Texas and Oklahoma. In the mid-to-high elevations, heavier fuels such as trees are expected to support "significant fire activity" by April. The "significant fire activity" is expected to remain through June and July west of the Continental Divide.
The National Drought Mitigation Center reports on drought impacts to various regions. The drought is considered to have two major impacts on Navajo and Apache counties - fire and environment. The environmental impact has been primarily in the area of air pollution from particulates. The air has had 29 times the amount of coarse particulates established by federal standards because there has been almost no rain to wash them away. The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality has issued 24 high pollution advisories in Arizona this year. Last year, a wet winter, there were no advisories. One result has been an upsurge of allergies this year.
The second major impact of drought in Arizona is fire. Fire season in Arizona and New Mexico started early. Since Feb. 1, 55,000 acres have burned in both states. Fire danger in February was considered as high as it usually is in June. Recent rain and snow gave the White Mountains a reprieve, more time to prepare.
The status of drought is monitored by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As of March 30 the Center reported the drought was "ongoing" with "some improvement." The Drought Monitor chart showed "Severe-Extreme" conditions in east central Arizona, accompanied by "High Fire Danger."
Charts and monitors are intended to give a broad, overall view of climate conditions. They are not site specific. The National Weather Service website in Flagstaff states: "As we all know in northern Arizona, there is no 100 percent guarantee when it comes to weather."
Residents of the White Mountains have had a break in the weather to get more work done on cleaning and clearing their property for the purpose of fire mitigation. As Lloyd Wilmes said at the March 1 Fire Emergency Management meeting: "Now is the time to get active in fire abatement."
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
winter WILL NOT give up the GHOST here 
