Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

[6SpeedTA95]

How do you get storm reports out of there. The local tulsa nws site does not have storm reports on it's front page.

Local weather was live on the air for 4 hrs on the 4 major tulsa stations

[CrazyC83]

Now I am looking for the Fort Smith-Fayetteville area for coverage.

[6SpeedTA95]

Now I am looking for the Fort Smith-Fayetteville area for coverage.

I think their is only a couple radars out of ft smith...2 or 3 maybe? so coverage may be a little scarce in the area, but you should be able to find something...there's a local radio station 93.7 out of ft smith that has good coverage you may look for a stream

[CrazyC83]

Now I am looking for the Fort Smith-Fayetteville area for coverage.

I think their is only a couple radars out of ft smith...2 or 3 maybe? so coverage may be a little scarce in the area, but you should be able to find something...there's a local radio station 93.7 out of ft smith that has good coverage you may look for a stream

I've seen the radars, but haven't found any coverage yet. I'm looking right now. This looks REALLY bad for them...I wouldn't be surprised if there is a big tornado on the ground now.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.knwa.com/radar.asp - INCREDIBLE hook showing up...

[6SpeedTA95]

http://www.knwa.com/radar.asp - INCREDIBLE hook showing up...

Looks like there's some rotation but thats far from an "incredible" hook

[6SpeedTA95]

Noaa radar shows a bit more impressive hook, but still nothing super impressive

[raisinsnacks]

Now I am looking for the Fort Smith-Fayetteville area for coverage.

there's a local radio station 93.7 out of ft smith that has good coverage you may look for a stream

Fred Baker's a spaz

[6SpeedTA95]

Now I am looking for the Fort Smith-Fayetteville area for coverage.

there's a local radio station 93.7 out of ft smith that has good coverage you may look for a stream

Fred Baker's a spaz

Thats no lie, but they give consistant updates

[CrazyC83]

Damage and perhaps injuries reported in Asbury, MO...

[senorpepr]

Looks like the SPC is now downplaying the whole event. One of the items I pointed out yesterday has become a big factor the Kansas and Nebraska--elevated thunderstorms limiting the tornado potential. We can see that has happened this evening. It was hardly the big "outbreak" that everyone was flying their freak flags about.

[CrazyC83]

One thought: remember March 11 and 12? Most suspected that March 11 was going to be a hyperactive day and it took until late in the evening (and overnight) for tornadoes to come out...then March 12 was BOOM!!!

[6SpeedTA95]

Looks like the SPC is now downplaying the whole event. One of the items I pointed out yesterday has become a big factor the Kansas and Nebraska--elevated thunderstorms limiting the tornado potential. We can see that has happened this evening. It was hardly the big "outbreak" that everyone was flying their freak flags about.

I think the only folks flying freak flags were folks on the net, NOAA was justified in their MDT box and maybe their high risk box

[6SpeedTA95]

One thought: remember March 11 and 12? Most suspected that March 11 was going to be a hyperactive day and it took until late in the evening (and overnight) for tornadoes to come out...then March 12 was BOOM!!!

I dont think there's much potential for widescale tornadic cells this evening...tomorrow could be a bit different depending on how things play out over night and the mixing that may take place as the result of these storms.

[CrazyC83]

We still have 30+ hours to get through...

[CrazyC83]

One thought: remember March 11 and 12? Most suspected that March 11 was going to be a hyperactive day and it took until late in the evening (and overnight) for tornadoes to come out...then March 12 was BOOM!!!

I dont think there's much potential for widescale tornadic cells this evening...tomorrow could be a bit different depending on how things play out over night and the mixing that may take place as the result of these storms.

You're right. I called it a 2-day outbreak; while it wasn't as intense (yet) as I predicted today, tomorrow is a new day.

[CrazyC83]

Here were the chances I predicted, and whether it happened:

Any Severe Weather Outbreak...90% - Yes
Tornado Outbreak...70% - Yes
Major Tornado Outbreak...60% - Not yet (5 more with a killer, 30 more otherwise needed)
Legendary Tornado Outbreak...40% - No
Record Tornado Outbreak...10% - No

[senorpepr]

Looks like the SPC is now downplaying the whole event. One of the items I pointed out yesterday has become a big factor the Kansas and Nebraska--elevated thunderstorms limiting the tornado potential. We can see that has happened this evening. It was hardly the big "outbreak" that everyone was flying their freak flags about.

I think the only folks flying freak flags were folks on the net, NOAA was justified in their MDT box and maybe their high risk box

I'm sorry... I should have been clear about that. I did meant net folks, not NOAA. They were quite justified in their forecasts.

[CrazyC83]

My chances for just tomorrow:

Any Severe Weather Outbreak...95%
Tornado Outbreak...85%
Major Tornado Outbreak...60%
Legendary Tornado Outbreak...30%
Record Tornado Outbreak...4%

[CrazyC83]

What hurt today: developed too slow and too far west. Not enough moisture in that area. That is a major reason why the outbreaks this year have been farther to the east. There have been only a handful of tornadoes west of a line from Des Moines to Kansas City to Tulsa.