Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't think that this should have been a HIGH RISK day. I have seen worse SLIGHT RISK events.
I think the MDT was 100% justified and the High box was also justified based on the indicators leading up to the event. The overcast skies much of the morning and afternoon kept yesterday from being bad. A few degrees makes all the difference in the world and we missed our forcast high temps by anywhere from 3 to 6* depending on where in the state you were. Basically it was just one variable that didn't work out that caused yesterday to be more of a flop in terms of ultra severe weather, but there is significant wind damage from central kansas to souther oklahoma and into western missouri and arkansas. Most of this from straightline winds but there were some tornadoes. I think they were probably justified in their high risk assessment.
I don't think the SPC were going to win. They went for the middle ground and it was either going to be underforecast, or overforecast either way. I know I didn't have the guts to come on here and forecast a moderate risk, when everyone and their dogs were talking about Super Outbreak II. The most I could bring myself to say was I woudn't be surprised if the tornadoes didn't materialise and it became a wind/hail event. I certainly understand the SPC's predicament. They did in the end only just up it to the bare minimum TOR threat required for a high risk, but that doubled their predicted TOR chance. In the end, I don't think they shold have done the last minute upgrade to high, but I don't think I, or anyone else, would have done any different in that position
