Friday outbreak

[CrazyC83]

You're under a PDS watch yet, so I can't say clear at this point.

Watch 161 will likely also be a PDS south of 160. 162 (north of 160) could be either a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or non-PDS Tornado Watch.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION - Now would be the time to be fully prepared for extreme weather.

Those words sum it up. The potential is there for extremely dangerous thunderstorms. This is already showing signs of formation - and it's only just after 11:00 am. It's a long, steep climb from here. The Level 5 alert tells the tale: very severe weather is expected. Anyone in the area should know what to do in case nasty weather hits, and have a weather radio handy. Violent tornadoes, destructive hail and hurricane-force winds are all possible. Even if you don't get tornadoes, you very well could get baseball-sized hail and winds up to 90 mph.

[6SpeedTA95]

That northern storm in tennessee almost at the KY border looks like they may put out a tornado warning on it within a few minutes time. There's a fairly decent hook echo on it based on the NOAA radio.

[CrazyC83]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1048 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006 SHORT TERM


..DANGEROUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING TORNADO OUTBREAK FORECAST FOR THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...


A STRAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL HAS DEVELOPED IN NW MS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS WRN TN. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE STORM TYPE WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A DEEP SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER KS WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY DYNAMICS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN WHERE THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPS...WHICH IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. BACKING OF THE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHWEST TN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS...BUT ATTM THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH IS UNDER A SERIOUS THREAT.

[6SpeedTA95]

http://www.wsmv.com/Global/story.asp?S=692843

Definately some rotation on that cell west of clarksville...dunno if its at the lower levels or not, but its an impressive cell with what appears to be a fair amount of rotation.

[CrazyC83]

That northern storm in tennessee almost at the KY border looks like they may put out a tornado warning on it within a few minutes time. There's a fairly decent hook echo on it based on the NOAA radio.

I agree. What's amazing is that it is only 11:15 am!!! If this happened last week, it would be only 10:15! There are many hours to go...

[6SpeedTA95]

Getting out of school for this? Ummm...I can't ever remember them doin that here in oklahoma...

[badger70]

That cell N of Jackson, TN is showing rotation from all the nearby radars.

[CrazyC83]

I'm surprised there is no tornado warning out of them. The cloud tops are also over 50,000 feet in them.

[6SpeedTA95]

That northern storm in tennessee almost at the KY border looks like they may put out a tornado warning on it within a few minutes time. There's a fairly decent hook echo on it based on the NOAA radio.

I agree. What's amazing is that it is only 11:15 am!!! If this happened last week, it would be only 10:15! There are many hours to go...

Yeah I dont see a tornado being in that storm but I could see the warning coming out based on its radar sig. Its a good looking cell but the hook is not too pronounced. More than likely its got some midlevel rotation and maybe some weak low level stuff.

[6SpeedTA95]

That cell N of Jackson, TN is showing rotation from all the nearby radars.

Yeah thats the cell we're discussing right now.


edit: sorry thats not the storm we're discussing, but I just pulled the radar images and you're right

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm surprised there is no tornado warning out of them. The cloud tops are also over 50,000 feet in them.

I'm thinking htey may have spotters on the storm or something. Since we can't get local info very readily thats the only thing I can figure since there's no official warning on it.

[Weatherfreak14]

Still holding together from what I am looking at.

[6SpeedTA95]

It's interesting looking at the equipment people in the rest of the country use compared with what we use here in the plains.

[Weatherfreak14]

Very Intense storm. Moving maybe just a little west of hopkinsville. Storm very intense on radar. 2in hail possible.

[CrazyC83]

Hopkinsville was hit hard on Sunday by an F3 tornado as well...

[6SpeedTA95]

Very Intense storm. Moving maybe just a little west of hopkinsville. Storm very intense on radar. 2in hail possible.

With cloud tops of 50,000 feet I'd say 2 inch hail is definately possible.

[Weatherfreak14]

Very aware. People west of hopkinsville should start takin cover. Hail around this size this storm produce can be very damaging.

[Brent]

High Risk extended northward into Southern KY.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND OH/TN
VALLEYS...

..SYNOPSIS

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATED DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS HAD BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE ESE....WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW REACHES THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS BY
12Z SATURDAY. BAND OF VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WITHIN BASE OF
LOW FROM TX/OK INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NRN/NERN KS...WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SRN MO/NRN AR BY EVENING. MEANWHILE... A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER
ERN CANADA...CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH SRN
LOWER MI TO SRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SSE ACROSS THE NERN
STATES AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION TO THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG SLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW AND S OF COLD FRONT WILL TRANSPORT
RICH MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

..LA/MS/TN/AL/GA INTO MID MS/OH VALLEYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGH RISK AREA FROM NRN MS/AL INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN...WITH THREAT
EXTENDING EWD INTO ERN TN/NRN GA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG AND LCL HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 1KM/ ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL AND
WRN/MIDDLE TN.

RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO AID IN THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS FURTHER WEAKENING
CAP AS INDICATED PER SPECIAL 14Z JAN SOUNDING. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO OH VALLEY AND EXISTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REST OF WARM SECTOR WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSOLATION
TO RESULT IN MUCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE MODERATE
AND HIGH RISK AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT /40-50 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BENEATH 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF
250-400 M2/S2/ FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER N...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE FROM IL/IND EWD
ACROSS OH/PA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SSEWD INTO THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LINEAR...
BUT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN IL/IND INTO SRN OH WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATER.

..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN THE WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INTO
PARTS OF SRN PA AND POTENTIALLY WRN MD/ERN WV AS MLCAPE VALUES REACH
AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY SHOULD APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT EWD SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.

..PARTS OF KS/OK/WRN MO/NWRN AR

COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH CENTRAL PLAINS LOW ATOP PROGGED
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN DESTABILIZING THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT
A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE ONSET OF STABILIZATION PER THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 04/07/2006

[Brent]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONROE
LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
LOWER MS VALLEY AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL
LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY LOWER MS
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT/LONG TRACK TORNADOES AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD
ACROSS WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.