Interesting blob at BOC

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cycloneye
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Interesting blob at BOC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2003 7:00 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

Dont watch that area of convection in the northcentral GOM but turn your attention to the BOC as that big complex will go out of Mexico and in that area of the BOC shear is between 10-15 kts not too unfavorable in that regard.Is this the area the models haved been saying for days that would come out of Mexico?I guess that it is.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Jun 03, 2003 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Guest » Tue Jun 03, 2003 7:03 pm

Interesting feature - what is the shear like in the BOC and GOM? Are the SST's warm enough yet for tropical action?

Patricia
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2003 7:08 pm

Ticka shear is between 10-15 kts not strong shear down there and waters temps are between 82*F-84*F.
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#4 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jun 03, 2003 7:14 pm

Hmm, looks good on the imagery.
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#5 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jun 03, 2003 7:55 pm

It will definately be something to keep our eyes on.
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Rainband

#6 Postby Rainband » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:04 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:It will definately be something to keep our eyes on.
Yes I agree.. :o :wink:
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#7 Postby Rainband » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:11 pm

I don't see it on any new models..do you have any links to the latest runs??It's on..if it is! :?: :wink:
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#8 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:12 pm

The real test will be if it can hold together once it gets over water tonight. If so, conditions appear marginally favorable for development.
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#9 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:39 pm

If my mind ain't gone, the history of this convection since it moved ashore in Mexico has been to flare in the evening. It looked completely petered out earlier today though. I'd have to go look at the charts, but last time I checked the WV loop, there appeared to be a really fast jet out of the WNW or NW blowing across the central Gulf.

Steve
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:40 pm

This area at the BOC is a real deal to develop as conditions appear favorable in the next couple of days.This complex has first to get completly out in the water and also the low center to then look at possible development and that could take more than 24 hours to happen.
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#11 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:42 pm

How fast is it moving?
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#12 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:48 pm

Image
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#13 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:50 pm

Is there a chance the low could re-form under that VERY IMPRESSIVE blob of convection??
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Jun 03, 2003 8:59 pm

Watch for the convection now over the region to die down a little bit later as that area gets over the open water ... the question regarding this now is how much of the energy, or even a convectively induced vorticity maximum can hold itself together after this initial MCC winds down.

Right now, the conditions are slightly favorable, with the strongest winds well north of the MCC, which could actually enhance the outflow in the northern semicircle ATT.
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#15 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Jun 03, 2003 9:06 pm

I say S and C FL need to watch this closely. :o
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#16 Postby Guest » Tue Jun 03, 2003 9:11 pm

Well - lets see if it maintains its convection. Would be interested in how many models pick it up and if any development occurs.
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#17 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jun 03, 2003 9:23 pm

It's been a while since I remember a system developing in the BOC in June but the area is climatologically favored.
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 03, 2003 9:40 pm

http://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif

Ticka you asked how warm is the BOC and GOM well it is quite warm now take a look.
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Daytime Heating...

#19 Postby MWatkins » Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:00 pm

The blob is currently in place due more to daytime heating over mexico and a properly forecast surface trough (by the global models). It has pulsed up due to instability (cold air aloft...bad for tropical development) and not directly from any tropical mechanisim. Just like last night...it will likely wind down as the night gets older...and perhaps start over again tomorrow.

However...the GFS forecasts that a 1008MB low will develop/persist down there in the medium term. However...atmospheric conditions would argue against any significant tropical development.

BTW...the new resolution from GOES 12 is great. Especially in the Water Vapor channel.

MW
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#20 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 03, 2003 10:45 pm

Conditions don't look too bad or too good -- kind of neutral if you ask me. Will be something to watch none the less.
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