Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

[Air Force Met]

Doesn't show this system bringing rain to Florida. If it's bring rain, there really isn't any use of watching it in my opinion.

I know I could use some of that rain too. Looks like the stormy season for the mid-west is starting early and we in SETX are going to miss our severe wx season...and our chances for some good rainfall.

[wjs3]

Thanks, AFM.

To recap, though this is no doubt review for many:

1) Warm water
2) Not under an upper low (especially at this time of year)..we look at 300 MB for that...I assume we could also look for a trough to the west (500 MB?) as a sign of a system with baroclinic origins?

Let's see, what else? How about--

No cold front/warm front type features at the surface

Winds strongest at the center of circulation, not away from the center

Are those good too?

[johngaltfla]

THE FIRST (ALBEIT POSSIBLY UNOFFICIAL) BEAR WATCH OF THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED!

Did someone page Yogi?

[Windtalker1]

Evidently it does, what a bust

Yeah. I'm thinking that looking for tropical activity in APRIL 180 hours out over 72 degree waters is an effort in futility and possibly extreme boredom.

People...it's APRIL. If there was actually something giong on...then maybe we could talk about it...but 180 hours out? Gotta be boredom...no other reason to even be talking about this.

Man...what's this place going to be like when it's really hurricane season?

Water off Ft Lauderdale Beach is at 78 degrees

[HurricaneHunter914]

It could still form into a tropical cyclone with 78 degree water. If Vince, Epsilon, and Zeta formed in water that cool then this one can too. As long as the shear is low it is possible.

[Air Force Met]

Evidently it does, what a bust

Yeah. I'm thinking that looking for tropical activity in APRIL 180 hours out over 72 degree waters is an effort in futility and possibly extreme boredom.

People...it's APRIL. If there was actually something giong on...then maybe we could talk about it...but 180 hours out? Gotta be boredom...no other reason to even be talking about this.

Man...what's this place going to be like when it's really hurricane season?

Water off Ft Lauderdale Beach is at 78 degrees

Yeah...off Ft Laud...BUT where the "low" was supposed to be in 180 hours it was 72 degrees...not 78..as the low was several hundred miles east of Florida...not near the Florida coast! It wasn't going to form on the beach!

[Air Force Met]

It could still form into a tropical cyclone with 78 degree water. If Vince, Epsilon, and Zeta formed in water that cool then this one can too. As long as the shear is low it is possible.

Per my post above...the low was forecasted to form (when this thread was originally posted) around 28N and b/w 70-75 west. Taking a look at the water in that area shows it is 70-72 degrees right now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Sorry but you posted after me so I didn't really think about it.

[windycity]

Whew. im not ready for the craziness yet. And 73 is too cold for anything to form. Lets give it a few more months, at least.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If only this thing was in the Caribbean. If the shear and dry air was gone we would have seen up to a Cat-1 possibly a cat-2 hurricane.

[Air Force Met]

If only this thing was in the Caribbean. If the shear and dry air was gone we would have seen up to a Cat-1 possibly a cat-2 hurricane.

Yeah...right about now I could go for something. Usually in April, we get to look for severe weather in SE Texas...but NOTHING this year. The pattern is already well to the north and east of us. No good fronts...no good lines of severe weather. BORING.

We are missing the severe season here BIG TIME.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Really a round of storms are coming my way. My lawn will finally be getting a good watering.

[benny]

Well maybe it will rain around here. Otherwise tropical development seems about nil. But the nice inverted trough likely to stick around several hundred miles to the east should be much nicer weather.. and that's a good thing. That dewpoint must be at least 70 today.. ugh.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Have you gotten any rain yet benny?

[benny]

nope. all of it is to the nw.. whatever is left. looks pretty paltry at this point but should regenerate as daytime heating kicks in. sw winds though.. no seabreezes probably.. maybe hail/high winds. :|

[CHRISTY]

nope. all of it is to the nw.. whatever is left. looks pretty paltry at this point but should regenerate as daytime heating kicks in. sw winds though.. no seabreezes probably.. maybe hail/high winds. :|

speaking of high winds looks pretty active this evening around south florida...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 091338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT SUN APR 9 2006

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE TROUGH PULLING OUT AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT OUR PLAYER WILL BE A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING IN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES FROM ABOUT SARASOTA TO CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS...PROVIDING FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THE SHORTWAVE IS VERY UNSTABLE. WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE
APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING COLD AIR IN ALOFT...WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE H5 TEMP OF -12.9C ON THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING. SO NEEDLESS
TO SAY...IT IS VERY UNSTABLE...WITH A MODIFIED MIAMI SOUNDING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING A CAPE OF AROUND 3600 J/KG...LI OF
-10C...AND A K-INDEX OF 32. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NEAR 35
KNOTS...SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE. WINDS THOUGH ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...SO THIS WOULD SUGGEST DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT MUST BE SAID THAT ANY BACKING OF THE WINDS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...SHOULD AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOP...WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF A TORNADO...BUT WHETHER OR NOT A SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM IS IN QUESTION. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD CONTINUE PAST DARK...GIVEN THE SUPPORT
OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MAY NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE
NIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REFLECT POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS AND INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. /DG

&&

[jrod]

Ive already made a bet that we will have a sub-tropical depression within the next 2 or 3 days off of Florida. Regardless all the models are showing strong NEasterlies for the days ahead, so Central and South Florida will likely see bech erosion.

This is what is great about this site, I can go back and verify a prediciton.

[MiamiensisWx]

Radar starting to light up...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[jrod]

Here in Cocoa Beach we got a pretty good thunderstorm early this morning, it even made the power flicker a few times. We did not get enough rain, I dont think the rain lasted more than an hour here.

[HURAKAN]

I SEE NO RAINA AROUND HERE!