SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

#821 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:32 pm

Christy the only difference from 2005 is that on average the Atlantic is somewhat cooler than last year at this date

The quiet decades of the 1970s to the early 1990s for major Atlantic hurricanes were likely due to changes in the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature structure with cooler than usual waters in the North Atlantic. The reverse situation of a warm North Atlantic was present during the active late-1920s through the 1960s (Gray et al. 1997). It is quite possible that the extreme activity since 1995 marks the start of another active period that may last a total of 25-40 years. More research is needed to better understand these hurricane "cycles

Source
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G4.html

CHRISTY · #822 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:44 pm

#823 Postby **windycity** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:53 pm

those SST charts really put things in perspective. Wow.

Weatherfreak000 · #824 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:59 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:2006...

2005...

2004...

2003...

Does this help?

Yeah thanks.

I get a very important lesson from this. And it's SST's Fluctuate. Just because it LOOKS like we'll have a down year because water temps are cold now don't mean anything. Unexpected events like troughs and cold fronts weaken the water temps and cause fluctuations. As I remember earlier the Caribbean was a little warmer but now water there is a little colder, but in response the Atlantic near Africa warmed.

Just remember, the waters out in the deep Atlantic can stay cold. It's not gonna effect hurricane activity because the water is gonna warm. GOM and Caribbean activity warms. The ONLY thing that is gonna determine if we get 13 or 15 or even 20 storms here is gonna be Upper Level Wind patterns.

We all know we can sustain tropical activity just about any time of the year in some places in the Atlantic. It's the SHEAR that will change everything.

benny · #825 Postby **benny** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 7:24 pm

I am not sure how anyone can say that we are going to have a down year based on SSTs. The monthly average anomalies in a good portion of the tropical atlantic (5n-20n, 30w-60w) came out for March and we were + 0.26 C above normal ( at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices ). Now this is nothing compared to last year but compared to other years... still on the warm side of things. Anyone that wants to say SST is that critical should just look at 1950 and 1964 SST anomalies.. not exactly warm. In fact, march 2006 was warmer than 1950,55,61,64,79,95,99,2003 and just about as warm as 2004. Those years were very active as as whole with SSTs at this time to be cool or neutral. So.. you can basically conclude nothing from SSTs at this time of the year...

HurricaneHunter914 · #826 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 10:37 pm

Out of all of those maps it looks like 2006 is definitly the year with the lowest temps. I'm kinda suprised.

#827 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:43 pm

ALL of last year's major storms were born or intensified in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. That's the area to watch because when storms get into the Gulf, they have no where to go. If the water is warm and other factors are favorable, we get big hurricanes.

Cape Verde hurricanes are not necessarily the best thing to be watching right now, in my opinion. We need to be watching the Gulf. And water temps there are high and will be getting warmer.

Audrey2Katrina · #828 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 12:17 am

I tend to agree with that...at least for the early part of the season.. I feel our first storm will be a Caribbean/Gulf event.

A2K

CHRISTY · #829 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:57 am

my thinking is la nina will probably be around for 1 -2 more months or it may be even shorter than that to me there's no doubt NEUTRAL conditions will take over sooner rather than later...

weatherwoman132 · #830 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:19 am

around florida, it looks warmer now than in 2004, and 2005.

#831 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:32 am

Nevertheless, to have an active season, it's not only sea-surface temperaturas, which I think play a minor role, but upper-level condicions must be near perfect most of the time like we saw last year and then we're talking about an active season. I think upper-level condicions play a major role and it's critical for an active season.

CHRISTY · #832 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:56 am

and of course there has to be very low WIND SHEAR or none at all in order to have a hurricane....

meteorologyman · #833 Postby **meteorologyman** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 8:16 am

Look at this storm just west of Africa on the side south :eek:

http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/o ... large.html

#834 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 8:16 am

CHRISTY wrote:and of course there has to be very low WIND SHEAR or none at all in order to have a hurricane....

That's my point. You could have a 100ºF ocean, but if the windshear is high, nothing will form. Now, you may have a 80ºF, and a low windshear environment, and a tropical cyclone has a good chance of forming. Something that Dr. Landsea said is that over the years it has been found that the wind shear pattern over the Atlantic has been more influencial over tropical cyclone activity than the water temperature. He explained this when he was talking about Global Warming.

CHRISTY · #835 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 8:42 am

meteorologyman wrote:Look at this storm just west of Africa on the side south

http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/o ... large.html

pretty active ITCZ for this time of year!big flare up but nothing will develope to much dry air and to much shear just to name a few.

HurricaneHunter914 · #836 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 8:46 am

If only the shear and dry air just went away then we could of had a system form like Ana in 2003.

meteorologyman · #837 Postby **meteorologyman** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 10:18 am

However, it seems like it will not take much this year for these storms become something powerful :eek:

but there is a saying that weather paterns could change in a blink of an eye

benny · #838 Postby **benny** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:53 pm

There is going to be a fair amount of warming in the tropical Atlantic this week (new reynolds SSTs come out on Monday) but also warming in the equatorial pacific... the trades have really died in both places. Before everyone freaks out over the end of La Nina let's remember the skin temperature heats up dramatically when the trades drop to 5 kt or less but it isn't indicative of the true depth of the anomalies necessary to sustain an ENSO event. This next week the upper anomalies are forecast to be amazing.. like up to 50 kt easterlies east of Trinidad. If that returns in July...!!!

MiamiensisWx · #839 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:05 pm

Let's see if the subsurface temperatures reflect neutral. Any graphics of current subsurface Pacific temperatures?

Weatherfreak000 · #840 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:12 pm

WOW, alot of weird fluctuations in the SST's.

The warming out in the Atlantic is changing..but the Caribbean has warmed alot.

Interesting, also CVW I think although the surface water temps may be warming a little the water is still likely deep and cold and probably still La Nina-ish...if only for a little longer.

SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

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