Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#61 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Apr 09, 2006 5:38 pm

spinfan4eva wrote:Looks like some sort of Sub Tropical low May form and Drift back west. Lucky its April cause If this were Hurricane season, this could be trouble!

NWS Jax mentions it in this afternoons Discussion:
BY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO NORTHERN AL/GA. ALSO A LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON THE TAIL END OF THIS
WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE SFC HIGH INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SHIFTING THE FLOW TO ELY. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S INLAND NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...WILL LEAN TO THE GFS SCENARIO WHICH BRINGS THE SUB-
TROPICAL LOW WWD INTO SOUTH FL. ALSO THE SHORT WAVES PASS BY NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS KEEPS A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WE WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY.



What AMAZING!!! Holy Smokes!
It's forecasted to get windy here- gusts to 30 mph tomorrow and
Tuesday according to NWS
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Weatherfreak000

#62 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:00 pm

I hard to rain on the parade but..... :roll:


I put this at a 5% shot at best.
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#63 Postby Brandon007 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:12 pm

5% ok i'll take that I just want to see anything remotely close to tropical forming this close :D I remember a few days ago some were saying no chance at all
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want a little thrill

#64 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006040906&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

Right now there is no need to overreact with this, but just be open to the idea that something may try to get going in the Bahamas early this week.
......want a liittle thrill, check the nogaps run above at 132 hours...if this were june, i need say no more......rich
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#65 Postby george_r_1961 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:21 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:any chance it could turn tropical in the gulf?


Well theres a lot of dry air down there...not impossible but not likely either. The next 24 hours will tell
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CHRISTY

#66 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:23 pm

This is getting kinda interesting let see what happens the next 24 hours!

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#67 Postby windycity » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:44 pm

Nah, not going to happen, and i am GLAD!!! :cheesy:
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#68 Postby benny » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:46 pm

Someone needs to throw the -removed- flag on this thread! If the upper trough were forecast by any model to cut off... it would be interesting. However all models forecast this trough at 200 mb to remain solid so the tropical chances seems like zilch. Even subtropical... usually you want the upper trough diminishing with time and ridging forming around the center... I don't see any evidence. I just hope it gives us some rain! :P
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MiamiensisWx

#69 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:50 pm

GFS hints at ridging possibly forming around it...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006040912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

NOGAPS follows a slightly similar scenario...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2006040912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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#70 Postby benny » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:54 pm

Ridging as in upper ridging.. to diminish the shear. Low-level ridging isn't going to help this sucker.
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Weatherfreak000

#71 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:54 pm

I notice the system isn't in those runs :roll:


So does it really matter?
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CHRISTY

#72 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:12 pm

convection still flareing up to the east of florida.....we'll see if it persist or will it go POOF!

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#73 Postby weatherwoman132 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:14 pm

it does look like it's getting more organized. *rubbs hands together like mr. burns*
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Weatherfreak000

#74 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:14 pm

ok...so this is it? lol.


This is the big system we're all talking about? Geez what a shame :roll:



Edit: Weatherwoman it's still connected to the front so it can't develop until it can work it's way to the surface. So no it's not getting any better.
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#75 Postby weatherwoman132 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:16 pm

lol...thanks for letting me know. lol. I dont know much right now, jus trying to learn everything. I'm 13.
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#76 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:17 pm

A low is forecasted to develop from this cold front, and then we will be talking about development. Right now there's nothing to say but just wait and see how things converge!
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Weatherfreak000

#77 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:20 pm

weatherwoman132 wrote:lol...thanks for letting me know. lol. I dont know much right now, jus trying to learn everything. I'm 13.

Yeah well hopefully by the end of the year you'll be quite informed :D




The area of convection we're seeing now is nothing, it's merely a blob of convection. We see those all the time and those don't warrant topics about it. I notice they still get the topics though :roll:

Just wait it out and when someone does happen...if it does. And Alberto really does come. I'll be utterly and completely surprised :)
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#78 Postby weatherwoman132 » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:23 pm

I will as well. :) thanks again!
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CHRISTY

#79 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Apr 09, 2006 7:24 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A low is forecasted to develop from this cold front, and then we will be talking about development. Right now there's nothing to say but just wait and see how things converge!
agree 100%!lets just wait a while....
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#80 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Apr 09, 2006 8:07 pm

cold front feature- development is very unlikely...though not impossible.
but chances are very low for any sub-tropical or tropical development
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