GOM = One B-O-R-I-N-G body of water!!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Circulation off Sanibel
What's up with the rotation just off the SW Florida coast? Had a heck of a show last night and tonight. Had dinner in Ft. Myers and had a real blow there. Sanibel, I tried taking photos of the single cloud last night, the moon was to the left and tried it with three shot bursts. Got a couple, but nothing to write home about.
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I know it's an upper low but it sure goes look interesting this evening.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6
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Stormcenter wrote:I know it's an upper low but it sure goes look interesting this evening.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6
Would be even interesting-er if it makes it to the surface. Any word on that possibility?
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- frederic79
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The GOM is poised temperature-wise to provide a yet-to-be-named storm the fuel to make front-page headlines. One area that could really produce something serious is the central Caribbean, primarily because of the position of the Bermuda High. Granted conditions right now aren't great, shear wise, but in the coming days anything that looks suspicious here would garner my attention. While troughs in the mid and western Atlantic may produce fish storms out of anything that far east, something developing in the Caribbean could meander slow into the southern Gulf. A slow, erratic moving storm finding favorable conditions aloft could quickly deepen. There is also much humidity in the Gulf region that would enhance potential for strengthening. I'm certainly not predicting anything, but simply pointing out that the Caribbean Sea, middle to western, is a good place to watch for something significant to develop in the next week or two.
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Was looking back on some of my posts from last summer and came across this one. Little did I or we have any idea what would take place a mere 16 days later.
The coast "pre-Katrina" and "post-Katrina" are surely two different places - at least in my world.
It is amazing how significantly things have changed since this thread was first posted.....


It is amazing how significantly things have changed since this thread was first posted.....
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- GeneratorPower
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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frederic79 wrote:The GOM is poised temperature-wise to provide a yet-to-be-named storm the fuel to make front-page headlines. One area that could really produce something serious is the central Caribbean, primarily because of the position of the Bermuda High. Granted conditions right now aren't great, shear wise, but in the coming days anything that looks suspicious here would garner my attention. While troughs in the mid and western Atlantic may produce fish storms out of anything that far east, something developing in the Caribbean could meander slow into the southern Gulf. A slow, erratic moving storm finding favorable conditions aloft could quickly deepen. There is also much humidity in the Gulf region that would enhance potential for strengthening. I'm certainly not predicting anything, but simply pointing out that the Caribbean Sea, middle to western, is a good place to watch for something significant to develop in the next week or two.
This prediction came true




IT MADE FRONT PAGE HEADLINES FOR SURE....as the worst hurricane disaster






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- frederic79
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What a humbling ride it's been. I've been in my house for 2 months now. The 33 ft. FEMA trailer got way too small for a family of five and four pets. Although we had no flood insurance (we were outside the flood zone), we received much help from family and churches. My retired father devoted his days for the last six months to get my house in order. Many church groups gave selflessly much time and energy gutting my house. Friends, family and Christians as far away as Washington State gave thousands to help restore our home. Through numerous appeals, we received some money for of the repairs from insurance and FEMA. But ultimately it was ordinary folks who helped us the most. I am profoundly grateful to God at the outpouring of we've received in the midst of what happened here. May God bless everyone on this board. You guys are great.
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- GeneratorPower
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Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:This thread should remind us not to write off hurricane seasons because nothing forms. Many of those threads were made last year and then more destruction came.
Right on. The point is that we just don't know much about hurricanes until they have already formed. With Dr Gray's 2005 forecast starting off at 11 named storms in a season which saw 28, forecasts are not very helpful. Here's what Dr. Gray said on Dec 3, 2004:
Dr. Gray wrote:We foresee a slightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004.
Dr. Gray is one of the best experts in his field, so if he can't get it any closer than that, forecasts in general are not helpful. Even by very late in the season, he was forecasting only 20 named storms. His late count was still wrong enough that there was almost another entire season's worth of storms yet to come, including Wilma.
So, applying basic logic to his current forecast of 17 named storms, and assuming his forecast is as accurate this year as it was last year, we should be expecting 43 named storms in 2006.

There's something called a WAG in statistics. It's a wild donkey guess. Looking at hurricane forecasts over the last few years, we could pull numbers out of a hat and not do too much worse than the experts.
What do I mean by all this? Take all predictors and forecasts with a grain of salt. Be prepared. Hope for the best for your particular area.
The best preparation is reminding ourselves how poor the forecasts are. Doing so will remind us in turn not to focus on the thin black line, but on the entire cone of probability. The forecasts for Katrina were accurate within 55 miles at over 48 hours out. That's incredibly good. We should not be lulled into a false sense of security and think that the short-term forecasts will be that good all the time. Doing so makes people focus on the thin black line, which can be disastrous.
It will also remind us that SSTs and Shear numbers are better short term predictors than long term predictors. They are very helpful in determining the likelihood of strengthening of a nearby hurricane. However, the total number of named storms produced by high SSTs is much less important than the total number of landfalling hurricanes.
Andrew was an El Nino storm in an otherwise uneventful season. It destroyed a big part of South Florida, so much so that it is still referred to today, 14 years later, on a regular basis. It will shape building codes in Florida for generations to come.
It's a long post, I know. Just my $0.02.
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- Andrew92
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*stepping on soapbox*
*BEWARE, long rant coming*
First off, I agree whole-heartedly with your post GeneratorPower. Now for my rant...
One thing I also remember was that people were posting that no storms seemed to be becoming hurricanes while Irene was struggling to develop out in the Atlantic in early August. The numbers at the time, so we thought, were 9/2/2 (though we now know they were 9/3/2 with Cindy). Many thought that it would be amazing to see another hurricane develop the rest of the season.
Yet, several of the storms that failed to become hurricanes that early reached winds of 65-70 mph, VERY close to hurricane status. When Irene fought all odds and managed to finally become a hurricane, it should have been a sign to many that the tropics were about to heat up BIGTIME the rest of the season, along with other factors favoring further development. It reminded me of 2001, a season that, up until Erin became a hurricane on about September 8, many had written off as a season that would never produce a hurricane. But prior to Erin becoming a hurricane, Barry, Chantal, and Dean ALL reached winds of 70 mph at one point, 4 MPH from hurricane strength. After their close calls, FIVE storms became hurricanes in succession: Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Iris. Three of them became major hurricanes.
Here's the moral of the story: Never, ever, EVER write off the hurricane season in the first half of August! Because what happened once Irene became a hurricane? Sure, Jose and Lee failed to become hurricanes, but starting with Maria (keep in mind, this is excluding Katrina), SIX storms became hurricanes in succession. Had Katrina and Lee swapped formation dates (Katrina being the dud, Lee the catastrophe), that number would have been seven.
I know I may have come across as rough and maybe a little harsh, but I felt like something like this needed to be said for this upcoming hurricane season as a lesson from last year.
With that, rant over.
And Frederic79, little did we know just how right your post was. Re-reading it from last year, my jaw dropped at your "forecast." The only part that wasn't correct at the time was the Western Caribbean, and even that became right in October with Wilma.
-Andrew92
*BEWARE, long rant coming*
First off, I agree whole-heartedly with your post GeneratorPower. Now for my rant...
One thing I also remember was that people were posting that no storms seemed to be becoming hurricanes while Irene was struggling to develop out in the Atlantic in early August. The numbers at the time, so we thought, were 9/2/2 (though we now know they were 9/3/2 with Cindy). Many thought that it would be amazing to see another hurricane develop the rest of the season.
Yet, several of the storms that failed to become hurricanes that early reached winds of 65-70 mph, VERY close to hurricane status. When Irene fought all odds and managed to finally become a hurricane, it should have been a sign to many that the tropics were about to heat up BIGTIME the rest of the season, along with other factors favoring further development. It reminded me of 2001, a season that, up until Erin became a hurricane on about September 8, many had written off as a season that would never produce a hurricane. But prior to Erin becoming a hurricane, Barry, Chantal, and Dean ALL reached winds of 70 mph at one point, 4 MPH from hurricane strength. After their close calls, FIVE storms became hurricanes in succession: Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Iris. Three of them became major hurricanes.
Here's the moral of the story: Never, ever, EVER write off the hurricane season in the first half of August! Because what happened once Irene became a hurricane? Sure, Jose and Lee failed to become hurricanes, but starting with Maria (keep in mind, this is excluding Katrina), SIX storms became hurricanes in succession. Had Katrina and Lee swapped formation dates (Katrina being the dud, Lee the catastrophe), that number would have been seven.
I know I may have come across as rough and maybe a little harsh, but I felt like something like this needed to be said for this upcoming hurricane season as a lesson from last year.
With that, rant over.
And Frederic79, little did we know just how right your post was. Re-reading it from last year, my jaw dropped at your "forecast." The only part that wasn't correct at the time was the Western Caribbean, and even that became right in October with Wilma.
-Andrew92
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