"Super el Nino" this year?

[Jim Cantore]

I dont buy it one bit, I can see it trying to pop after La Nina dissipates though since as I mentioned I believe they normally go back to back.

[MWatkins]

Yes, that's a very good point. I've been watching the equatorial depth profile all winter and spring, and while the warm pool in the west is impressve (more so than last year even) there has been no sign at all of anything propagating eastward. That's why I remain very doubtful we'll see an el Nino this year.

I agree with you there (and I saw your second reply after I posted mine but didn't have a chance to reply to now). The warming has been fairly consistent subsurfce on the west side but doesn't seem to be growing much or making progress eastward. If it's going to influence this season it should have been moving already. Perhaps next season...but not this year.

Yes, and as I noted, this warm anomaly has dissipated.

Yep. Looked like it was trying to make a comeback but like Rocky in the first fight in Rocky 3...the warm spot is down on the canvass.

Yeah, we can't know the full context of that private communication, but I suspect he was only referring to the strong and deep warm anomaly in the west. To the extent that continues, we are likely in for a strong el Nino once it happens (whether as strong as '97 - who knows) but again I don't think it'll be this year.

I agree that SSTs alone are inadequate - one needs to look at the depth of the thermocline as well to really understand what's going on.

Good to see another thought-provoking post from you...the Atlantic season must be closing in or something.

MW

[Jim Cantore]

The phrase "Dont judge a book by its cover" comes into play here, SST's arent the only factor here, you have to look below the surface

[benny]

Models have come a long ways in meteorology but they still stink in oceanography. It is especially hard because the data coverage is poor in the oceans... and because ENSO is an atmosphere/ocean response, you need to have a good handle on what the atmosphere is going to do to help force the ocean in addition on a climate timescale. Not an easy problem! We can guess or use analogs or statistical techniques but until numerical models can handle the situation.. our ability to forecast ENSO isn't great.

[MWatkins]

Models have come a long ways in meteorology but they still stink in oceanography. It is especially hard because the data coverage is poor in the oceans... and because ENSO is an atmosphere/ocean response, you need to have a good handle on what the atmosphere is going to do to help force the ocean in addition on a climate timescale. Not an easy problem! We can guess or use analogs or statistical techniques but until numerical models can handle the situation.. our ability to forecast ENSO isn't great.

I 100% positively agree with that last statement...especially at this time of year. Who knows, we could see a nino kick in during the summer. No one really saw the 1997 nino coming until May of that year (I believe) and no one could have comprehended the magnitude of the event. No named storms in August? That's a 1000:1 long shot even in a Nino year.

However, I think the argument that a Super nino is on the way based on the maps showing comparisons between 1997 and 2006 (we talked about those similaraties in a mid-feb video for whatever that is worth) is almost completely unsupportable knowing what we know here in 2006.

Uncertantity with ENSO forecasts in April and May is one thing, proclaiming a "Super Nino" then linking it to "Global Warming" is quite another.

If some sort of "Super Nino" does develop this season I will eat my hat live on the internet.

Famous last words, huh?

MW

[x-y-no]

If some sort of "Super Nino" does develop this season I will eat my hat live on the internet.

Famous last words, huh?

MW

We could make it a pay-per-view fundraiser for S2K.