Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

HurricaneHunter914 · #161 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:35 pm

I agree this may actually do something. From becoming tropical to dumping rain on some desserted island.

weatherwoman132 · #162 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:59 pm

what are the current temperatures?

HurricaneHunter914 · #163 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:00 pm

Lower 70's

weatherwoman132 · #164 Postby **weatherwoman132** » Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:07 pm

I thought it was higher..

#165 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:16 am

forget it. the shear has arived and the convection is disappearing.

#166 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:23 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:forget it. the shear has arived and the convection is disappearing.

The Good and the Bad News for those that want development:

Bad News: Shear values are around 20 - 50 knots

Good News: Forecasted to decrease by 10 - 20 knots in 24 hours.

Weatherfreak000 · #167 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:31 am

Well shear IS on the decrease so maybe it could spin some more convection back up. :roll:

#168 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:33 am

#169 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:23 am

look at the NHC radars now!!! convection is coming back and begining to form somthing!!!

#170 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:24 am

I can't miami radar is still down. Also what do you mean by NHC radars?

#171 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:31 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

zoom in once or twice on the center and you will see somthing forming.

#172 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:37 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

AN AREA OF RAIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED 50 NM OR
SO NW OF THE LOW CENTER. LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND
BUT MUCH OF THE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS TO THE W OF THE ISLAND
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 70W FROM
16N-21N. THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING WWD OVER HISPANIOLA INTO THE
DEEP MOISTURE FORCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT.
THE TIGHT PRES GRAD CAUSED BY THE 1012 MB LOW AND A 1032 MB HIGH
OFF THE NE US COAST IS CAUSING STIFF 25-30 KT E/ENE WINDS FROM
FLORIDA TO 65W MAINLY BETWEEN 20N-28N. GFS KEEPS THE WEAK LOW
MEANDERING N OF HISPANIOLA THRU FRI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY FLATTENING ON SAT. UNTIL THEN...RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EWD LATER TODAY AND ENCOMPASS THE E BAHAMAS TO PUERTO
RICO SPREADING TO THE NE ACROSS THE W ATLC. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA...THE W BAHAMAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
THRU THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES.

x-y-no · #173 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:38 am

Oy!

Relax, people ...

It's a little early to be jumping on ever upper-level low (or in this case trough) and thinking it portends development.

#174 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:42 am

it has the potential to devlop i the next few days as the shear weakens. look at the link i gave above, and you might see somthing forming! also, that Discussion Statment was given 3 hours ago, so its not entirly accurate.

#175 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:43 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:it has the potential to devlop i the next few days as the shear weakens. look at the link i gave above, and you might see somthing forming! also, that Discussion Statment was given 3 hours ago, so its not entirly accurate.

It is accurate within three hours. Also they did not state they were expecting some type of subtropical/tropical development.

#176 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 9:45 am

lets just see what it says at the 1:05 (i think thats correct) dusscussion statment.

Javlin · #177 Postby **Javlin** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:05 am

Not enough moisture,low and marginal sst's.To form at the tail of a front takes time to make it to the surface if it can.Then if I am not mistaken it helps to be a cutoff low.Would not give this much of chance just an oppurtunity to brush up.

#178 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:06 am

Geez...some of you people are going to go absolutely nuts when we actually have something!!!!

benny · #179 Postby **benny** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:23 am

visible sat pix shows a low just n of haiti... though it is nasty and sheared

jabber · #180 Postby **jabber** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:36 am

skysummit wrote:Geez...some of you people are going to go absolutely nuts when we actually have something!!!!

Yeah... its gonna be nuts when things really start popping

Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

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