Expert: Overall cooling trend from 1999-2005

[kenl01]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main ... do0907.xml


"The essence of the issue is this. Climate changes naturally all the time, partly in predictable cycles, and partly in unpredictable shorter rhythms and rapid episodic shifts, some of the causes of which remain unknown. We are fortunate that our modern societies have developed during the last 10,000 years of benignly warm, interglacial climate. But for more than 90 per cent of the last two million years, the climate has been colder, and generally much colder, than today. The reality of the climate record is that a sudden natural cooling is far more to be feared, and will do infinitely more social and economic damage"



Ken

[x-y-no]

Well I'm glad you chose to headline the "Overall cooling trend from 1999-2005" since that's the most blatant lie of a number of lies Carter repeats. (Actually, this claim is false in all respects. Therefore Carter chooses 1998 as the start point of his range, not 1999, which was far cooler).

The claim that there an "overall cooling trend from 1998-2005" is true if and only if you look at the endpoints only, and discard all the data inbetween. There is no method of smoothing whatsoever which yields anything but a gradual increasing trend for that period without discarding that data. Furthermore, when one includes data from the years prior to 1998, the smoothed trend is even more pronounced.

And when you think about it, it's obvious why he would choose that particular start point. 1998 was the peak of the largest el Nino on record. That's the reason 1998 stands out as such a warm year - because one has the warm anomaly of that record el Nino on top of the AGW warming trend. In fact, what's really extraordinary is that 2005 was nearly as warm as 1998, despite having been a neutral ENSO year.

Carter knows this full well, which is why I label this claim a lie, not an error. Readers of this thread should consider what weight to give other claims made by someone who would so blatanly lie about this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's an interesting article about Antarctica cooling:

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/200200 ... _sys.shtml

[Trugunzn]

This guy thinks we arnt in global warming:

http://www.anxietycenter.com/warning/main.htm#cold

[x-y-no]

Here's an interesting article about Antarctica cooling:

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/200200 ... _sys.shtml

It's true that substantial parts of Antarctica have cooled slightly, although other parts (particularly the Antarctic Peninsula) have warmed substantially.

The article is mistaken to call this surprising, however. Climate models predict the maximum warming to occur in the Arctic, and indeed that's what we're observing. But the Antactic is buffered by the surrounding ocean with it's substantial heat capacity, and all climate models which incorporate ocean-air coupling predict a much slower warming in the Antarctic as a result.

[Trugunzn]

I think the ice caps are melting because of ocean warming. I saw a artical talking about the under water volcanic activity has been higher then any year in history! This could be why ice is melting so fast.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, the 1982-83 El Niño was the Mother of All Niños though 1997-98 came very close. The Global Air Temperature anomalies caused by it were mitigated somewhat by the eruption of El Chicón which sent significant quantities of SO2 into the stratosphere to impose a cooling trend in top of the warming due to the very intense ENSO warm phase event. In the same way, Pinatubo blunted the warming due to the strong 1991-92 ENSO warm phase event.

Steve