Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

[wjs3]

AFM:

Why is shear always low in the middle of an upper low? Do I have you right there?

Thanks

[CHRISTY]

negative Matt -

Shear is forecasted to relax to 20K in 24 hours....

shear is not that bad in the next couple of days take a look...

I'll chime in here...been out the last couple if days (those who lurk in the off topic area know why...

The reason the shear is low is because that is the MIDDLE of the upper low...not the MIDDLE of the upper high....which is the difference b/w a tropical system and once that's not. Shear is always low in the middle of an upper level low.

The forecat for this is it's an asymetric border-line system that should transition into a cold-core one.

Is the system you are referring to the little spin we are seeing? ..Or that whole area in general?

here's the loop again!

[meteorologyman]

Just incase u want to see it on the Weather Channel they'll be talking about this coming hurricane season with Jim Cantore in Orlando Florida

[CHRISTY]

Just incase u want to see it on the Weather Channel they'll be talking about this coming hurricane season with Jim Cantore in Orlando Florida

when what time????

[meteorologyman]

It will be on in couple minutes not sure what time but again couple minutes

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Ok, I think EVERYONE who has posted in this thread needs to calm down. This thing is NOT going to develop anytime soon, I know shear is *suppose* to be low, however, this low-shear area is also under an upper level low. If by some 0.00001% chance it makes it into a low-shear, upper level anticyclonic area in a week or so, then we can talk.

There are reasons why there has only been 1 recorded storm in history develop in April. June is only 1.5 months away, I'm sure you guys can wait until then.

[meteorologyman]

Ok, I think EVERYONE who has posted in this thread needs to calm down. This thing is NOT going to develop anytime soon, I know shear is *suppose* to be low, however, this low-shear area is also under an upper level low. If by some 0.00001% chance it makes it into a low-shear, upper level anticyclonic area in a week or so, then we can talk.

There are reasons why there has only been 1 recorded storm in history develop in April. June is only 1.5 months away, I'm sure you guys can wait until then.

You're right but we are just having fun

[skysummit]

Ok, I think EVERYONE who has posted in this thread needs to calm down. This thing is NOT going to develop anytime soon, I know shear is *suppose* to be low, however, this low-shear area is also under an upper level low. If by some 0.00001% chance it makes it into a low-shear, upper level anticyclonic area in a week or so, then we can talk.

There are reasons why there has only been 1 recorded storm in history develop in April. June is only 1.5 months away, I'm sure you guys can wait until then.

You're right but we are just having fun

No joke...calm down a little Doc. We're not boarding up the windows are anything. Some of us are just being sarcastic.

SOOOOOO.....you're saying that you think this has the chance of making it into a favorable environment in 1 week? LOL

[feederband]

Ok, I think EVERYONE who has posted in this thread needs to calm down. This thing is NOT going to develop anytime soon, I know shear is *suppose* to be low, however, this low-shear area is also under an upper level low. If by some 0.00001% chance it makes it into a low-shear, upper level anticyclonic area in a week or so, then we can talk.

There are reasons why there has only been 1 recorded storm in history develop in April. June is only 1.5 months away, I'm sure you guys can wait until then.

You're right but we are just having fun

No joke...calm down a little Doc. We're not boarding up the windows are anything. Some of us are just being sarcastic.

Your not boarding up???

[skysummit]

Ok, I think EVERYONE who has posted in this thread needs to calm down. This thing is NOT going to develop anytime soon, I know shear is *suppose* to be low, however, this low-shear area is also under an upper level low. If by some 0.00001% chance it makes it into a low-shear, upper level anticyclonic area in a week or so, then we can talk.

There are reasons why there has only been 1 recorded storm in history develop in April. June is only 1.5 months away, I'm sure you guys can wait until then.

You're right but we are just having fun

No joke...calm down a little Doc. We're not boarding up the windows are anything. Some of us are just being sarcastic.

Your not boarding up???

No, but we did get our water and batteries together. We're making plans to evacuate in the morning hours.

[feederband]

This is just a test thread for the season too come...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah you should be boarding up right now that thing already has an eye!

[cycloneye]

Doc even I caved into this thread to calm down the w's but nothing serious here to say about any development.

[skysummit]

This is just a test thread for the season too come...

Yea, we're practicing.

[meteorologyman]

just so u know we made 9 pgs on this storm just about on 10

[Air Force Met]

A pro met has already discussed it....Maybe his thoughts have changed, though I doubt it.

I haven't changed my opinion on it. There is an upper low over it...and that means it's baroclinic in nature (which is the only reason for the trof at the surface).

Not sure what the fuss is about other than pre-season boredom.

[Stratosphere747]

A pro met has already discussed it....Maybe his thoughts have changed, though I doubt it.

I haven't changed my opinion on it. There is an upper low over it...and that means it's baroclinic in nature (which is the only reason for the trof at the surface).

Not sure what the fuss is about other than pre-season boredom.

I figured they had not changed. What you described a week ago was dead on. The fever for a system sometimes keeps people from understanding what is really going on.

[feederband]

This is just a test thread for the season too come...

Yea, we're practicing.

Yea It definitely looks like we are ready for the season to start..

[Air Force Met]

AFM:

Why is shear always low in the middle of an upper low? Do I have you right there?

Thanks

Upper level lows are broad in their pressure fields...which leads to weak wind fields over large areas. Weak sfc winds with weak winds aloft in the middle of the upper lows lead to weak shear.

Notice how the low level of shear lines up with the upper low:

[Air Force Met]

the strom is over 77 F on SST

It could be over 100F water...there is nothing tropical. It is baroclinic and is being forced at the sfc by an upper low and is on it's way to becoming a symetric cold core system.

Anything that would try to break away from the upper low will have to fight 50 kts of shear...which will be INCREASING with time...also KNOT (hehe) good for any development regardless of the water temp.