Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

#361 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:51 pm

where did everyone go?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #362 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:53 pm

benny wrote:This is an impressive discussion about not much. August should be scary.

You think August will be bad... you should see it by the end of June, especially if we haven't had at least two storms yet. People will ping out over random cumulus.

#363 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:55 pm

if we get this storm now, all of the season will be horrible!

benny · #364 Postby **benny** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:58 pm

hmm. desperation in april.

not too long before the epac heats up.. but if this season is like most.. gonna be quite a wait in the atlantic. if the current upper pattern holds up though.. july should be interesting.

Hurricaneman · #365 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:58 pm

It has maybe at best a 1.5% chance of development, only because of the water temps and shear

#366 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 5:00 pm

remember that the shear is going to weaken and that it is headed towards warmer waters.

#367 Postby **feederband** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 5:17 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:where did everyone go?

Back under their rocks for now... :eek:

#368 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 5:19 pm

feederband wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:where did everyone go?

Back under their rocks for now...

I can't go under my rock it's way too dry under there and I ran out of food from my winter supply.

#369 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 5:34 pm

ok. i dont think that this thing will develop anymore. it will problay bring some rain into S. Florida.

#370 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:19 pm

NWS Miami is not even mentioning this system at all - in fact saying no decent rainfall. I'm not sure if I agree with them. I think that as it moves WSW over South Florida it will be enough to bring some decent rain/showers for us more then they are forecasting.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 121830
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...DUE TO
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...ONLY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED
PORTIONS OF THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT HAS
BEEN A DRY DAY. GFS SHOWS THE PWAT INCREASING TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS
THE SE COAST BY THU MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR SURGE IN
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING. SO
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THE EAST COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEN...RIDGING BUILDS ALONG WITH A DRYING
ATMOSPHERE...SHUTTING OFF THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DAYS TO COME.
THUS...REMOVED MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

CHRISTY · #371 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:29 pm

boca_chris wrote:NWS Miami is not even mentioning this system at all - in fact saying no decent rainfall. I'm not sure if I agree with them. I think that as it moves WSW over South Florida it will be enough to bring some decent rain/showers for us more then they are forecasting.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 121830
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...DUE TO
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...ONLY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED
PORTIONS OF THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT HAS
BEEN A DRY DAY. GFS SHOWS THE PWAT INCREASING TO NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS
THE SE COAST BY THU MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A MINOR SURGE IN
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING. SO
KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THE EAST COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THEN...RIDGING BUILDS ALONG WITH A DRYING
ATMOSPHERE...SHUTTING OFF THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DAYS TO COME.
THUS...REMOVED MENTION OF EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

boca it is not moving this way...

#372 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:14 pm

i dont know... the NHC didnt mention any devlopment activity in the latest discussion (8:05), but it is getting better orginized. the last few frames show it becoming much better. all it needs now is some more convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#373 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:19 pm

i spy with my monster eyes, a forming eye wall (i think)

#374 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:20 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i spy with my monster eyes, a forming eye wall (i think)

Huh???

Trugunzn · #375 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i spy with my monster eyes, a forming eye wall (i think)

?

Trugunzn · #376 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:27 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i spy with my monster eyes, a forming eye wall (i think)

?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #377 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:32 pm

Don't look at the water vapor. Its a upper low...

#378 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:34 pm

i dont know... the NHC didnt mention any devlopment activity in the latest discussion (8:05), but it is getting better orginized. the last few frames show it becoming much better. all it needs now is some more convection.

Better organized? Are you looking at what everybody else is looking at?

i spy with my monster eyes, a forming eye wall (i think

I don't think the moderators are going to tolerate this type of posting much longer Evil Jeremy.

meteorologyman · #379 Postby **meteorologyman** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:45 pm

I wonder what this storm will do if and when it goes into the Gulf

#380 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:45 pm

sorry, but i was looking at the water vapor. im sorry.

Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

Who is online