SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[CHRISTY]

i know this is kinda of topic......






There's has been very persistant ridge along the southeast so far this year i hope it does not persist into hurricane season cause if it does we might be in trouble.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 151923
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THOUGH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD

[weatherwoman132]

so what does this mean?

[CHRISTY]

so what does this mean?

remember 2004 thats what happens when u have a strong ridge!were the bermudahigh sets up this season will be key.....

[weatherwoman132]

oh, thanks!

[cycloneye]

ENSO Equatorial Pacific



Above is the graphic of how are the anomalies in the equatorial pacific doing.If you look at the data it's between very weak la nina and neutral in my estimation.However this is the time that is more difficult to say with authority how ENSO will be during the peak of the 2006 Atlantic season.

[skysummit]

i know this is kinda of topic......






There's has been very persistant ridge along the southeast so far this year i hope it does not persist into hurricane season cause if it does we might be in trouble.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 151923
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THOUGH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD

Yea, but if your persistant high stays as dominant as it is currently, it would steer all storms away from Florida.

[skysummit]

04/16/2006 12Z SST Plots....now 80 degrees in the central Gulf.

[Scorpion]

i know this is kinda of topic......






There's has been very persistant ridge along the southeast so far this year i hope it does not persist into hurricane season cause if it does we might be in trouble.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 151923
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC
THOUGH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
EAST...SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD

Yea, but if your persistant high stays as dominant as it is currently, it would steer all storms away from Florida.

Perhaps, however a weakness in it would bring storms toward Florida. Ivan and Dennis came close to being a peninsula problem.

[benny]

Ahh the ridge people are back! As I have discussed before... springtime ridging just isn't particularly relevant to hurricane landfalls later in the year. If there is any research that suggests otherwise I'd be glad to change my thinking on the topic...

At this lead time I would watch to see if La Nina reinvigorates itself in the coming week as trades restrengthen and if the tropical Atlantic can keep its new-found warmth. The trades have been so dead in the Caribbean that it will show a pronounced spike in anomalies this coming week (issued on Monday for the previous week). In addition the 30 day upper wind anomalies have been exceptionally favorable in the deep tropics... take a look at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... 00_30d.gif

If that sticks around we shouldn't be having a problem forming systems in the eastern/central Atlantic this year...

[skysummit]

Exactly...so why are we talking about anyway right now? Hmmm???

[meteorologyman]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH S EXTENT AFFECTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO BELIZE. THE LOW LEVEL REMNANTS OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TRAILS SWD OVER PUERTO
RICO TO JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN.
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AN E/W ORIENTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC
ISLANDS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWD AROUND THE W PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE FROM S AMERICA IS PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS.
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SAT EVENING HAVE SHIFTED MOSTLY
E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OWING TO A WEAKER THAN USUAL ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ELY TRADES ARE RATHER WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS A NEW FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC EARLY
IN WORK WEEK.

[meteorologyman]

ATLC...
A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH A TROUGH W OF 50W AND RIDGE E OF
50W. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC WHERE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
29N49W WITH COLD FRONT SWD TO 22N57W. THE STRONGEST AND MOST
NUMEROUS OF THE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOTED N OF 28N
BETWEEN 35W-45W. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FURTHER S WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAKENING
PORTION OF THE FRONT WHICH TRAILS SWD TO PUERTO RICO.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS AS IT PUSHES SEWD INTO THE E ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENT
FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
OVER THE W ATLC. OVER THE E ATLC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE AZORES TO 20N45W IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE THE TRADES ESPECIALLY E OF 40W. OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC...A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 12N50W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING E/W FROM
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA NEAR DAKAR. STRONG MID/UPPER
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IS KEEPING THE ITCZ AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SUPPRESSED TO RIGHT ALONG THE EQUATOR.

[cycloneye]

For those who haved been posting discussions from TPC or NWS this topic is not about what they say but about the sst's and anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific.

[meteorologyman]

ok, sorry

[meteorologyman]

Question though, does this not play a role on sst and on anomalies,

if not where would you like this sort of topic to be posted???

[gatorcane]

Water temps in the Florida Straits are really starting to climb as expected. They were around 76-77 about 1 week ago and now with all of the sun we are seeing:

3:00pm report April. 16th:

Sombrero Key 78 SE 3G/ 4 kts
Molasses Reef 80 SW 1G/ 2 kts
Fowey Rocks 78 SE 8G/10 kts
Settlement Point Missing SW 9G/10 kts

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41040



Already the water temperature around this bouy located around 14n-53w well east of the Lesser Antilles is around the 80*F-81*F mark.Is understandable that the MDR waters are starting to warm first the sun angle is higher and higher as time goes by and second the trade winds haved been weaker than average causing the warming to spread more rapidly.

[meteorologyman]

For Wind shear the Atlantic is becoming more favorable for Hurricanes

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[MiamiensisWx]

I think La Nina may make a comeback over the weeks to come. Who else agrees?

[MiamiensisWx]

The neutral-like conditions in the Pacific seem to be weakening slightly, and the cooler waters off South America seem to be hinting at moving westward. I expect further warming in a large swath of the Atlantic - including the western Atlantic - due to the weaker trades. I expect a large-scale pattern change occurring likely over the next two months or so forecast by model consensus will result in less of an influence of the Bermuda High, while the Azores High takes the upper hand in the central and eastern Atlantic. A negative NAO will likely resurge, along with hints of a persistent spring to summer Great Plains ridge beginning to take place. This pattern is indicative in many La Nina years and generally lean towards La Nina conditions. I expect further warming in many areas of the Atlantic and a resurge in a La Nina in the Pacific over the next many weeks. Any thoughts? Who agrees?

La Nina is not dead. It is likely coming back, and the pattern change supports a continuation of La Nina conditions. SOI supports it, too. How long this pattern continues, though, is the key. It waits to be seen if this lasts into August/September.