Neutral ENSO Returns to Pacific

[cycloneye]

IRI April Enso Update



This independent firm does monthly updates of ENSO and here is the april update that may surprise many.

[canetracker]

This certainly has happened earlier than expected. I would have thought this would not come about til at least June or July.

[dhweather]

Interesting - lets see how the current weather patterns change in the next few
weeks.

[Aquawind]

Well NOAA forecasted a short 3-6 month Nina and evidently it will be well within that range.. of course NOAA criteria might not meet a neutral ENSO just yet but it probably will within the 6 month period..

[P.K.]

Not much of a surprise. The BoM never declared it a La Nina and the most recent updates have been more further away from La Nina than they were in Feb.

[CHRISTY]

so what does this all mean for U.S.?so is this year shaping up like 2004-2005?pro mets can u explain....

[cycloneye]

Well NOAA forecasted a short 3-6 month Nina and evidently it will be well within that range.. of course NOAA criteria might not meet a neutral ENSO just yet but it probably will within the 6 month period..

NOAA=1-3 months weak La Nina



Paul they downgraded to 1-3 months in the April update.

[CHRISTY]

There is an estimated 80% likelihood for neutral conditions, approximately 10% probability for La Niña conditions to return, leaving 10% probability that El Niño conditions will develop over the AMJ 2006 season.

[Aquawind]

Paul they downgraded to 1-3 months in the April update.

Exactly.. right on the original schedule..well original forecast.

No Surprises for me at this point..hopefully none for the hurricane season either.

[HouTXmetro]

Does this mean less recurvature and more homegrown systems?

[benny]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.ppt

They suggest ENSO-neutral is occuring. All I can really say is that just because you have a couple of weeks of warm water doesn't mean it is going to persist. IRI also issued a very poor forecast last spring season...

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... gure3.html

5% chance of La Nina.. and it happened.. that's not too good in my book.

Even in June...
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... kLook.html

Still no clue La Nina was coming. Of course, neither did CPC! It just goes to show that we don't know much about ENSO forecasts...

In Sept.. they still had the same token 5% probability
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... kLook.html

Amazing eh?

The atmosphere is not very neutral right now.. and really that seems to be all that counts. When I start seeing convection return near the eq/180 and some sort of wly winds burst in the central/western pacific.. then el nino might rear its ugly head. til then.. warmer than average atlantic SSTs should dominate

[CHRISTY]

Does this mean less recurvature and more homegrown systems?

ok can someone answer this question?

[benny]

Does this mean less recurvature and more homegrown systems?

ok can someone answer this question?

Who knows in my book. We can speculate until the cows come home but there is no good data to support that position. We have seen active landfall years ranging from weak El Nino (2004) to strong La Nina.. when and where are unknowns at this point. The numbers say La Nina has the most hurricane landfall but neutral isn't that far behind... with El Nino lagging..

[CHRISTY]

Does this mean less recurvature and more homegrown systems?

ok can someone answer this question?

Who knows in my book. We can speculate until the cows come home but there is no good data to support that position. We have seen active landfall years ranging from weak El Nino (2004) to strong La Nina.. when and where are unknowns at this point. The numbers say La Nina has the most hurricane landfall but neutral isn't that far behind... with El Nino lagging..

thanks benny.

[cycloneye]

Benny,what we have to watch is what CPC will say in it's may update to see if they follow this independent firm forecast or will they continue to forecast weak la nina.

[cycloneye]

TAO Graphic



Above is the graphic about how it looks right now in the Pacific.No real blues meaning cooler waters showing up at el nino 3-4.

[benny]

Benny,what we have to watch is what CPC will say in it's may update to see if they follow this independent firm forecast or will they continue to forecast weak la nina.

well their latest forecast says neutral is most likely.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.ppt


i think there is a pdf of that as well. I don't think they will be "following" anything.. On page 3 they say that neutral conditions are most likely for the next 3-6 months.. those ppts come out every week while the advisories are every month...

[benny]

TAO Graphic



Above is the graphic about how it looks right now in the Pacific.No real blues meaning cooler waters showing up at el nino 3-4.

Yeah for sure right now it is neutral... i am just interested to see if the seasonal trade wind increase will return the cool water. I have a feeling it will .. the cool waters are already increasing along s america.

[cycloneye]

POAMA Model



Oh very interesting what I just found.This Australian POAMA model has been very warm ENSO bias but look now,they haved backed down to neutral too. If the members recall I made a thread almost two months back about an october surprise of el nino based on this model forecast.But as we can see they haved changed to neutral all the way to the end of 2006.

[Javlin]

I would have to agree with Benny to some degree and not that every neutral season is the same but the setup seems different from last year.If I see a change in the patterns in the next 4-6 weeks like more Rain with that I would assume a different position on the highs.Then I might start to raise an eyebrow.