MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN AR THROUGH WRN TN...NRN PARTS OF
   MIDDLE TN AND SWRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 200922Z - 201115Z
   
   THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER STORMS
   DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF WRN TN AND SWRN KY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG A MODEST 20 TO 25 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN THROUGH
   MIDDLE TN AND INTO WRN AND CNTRL KY. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION
   IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES FROM
   7.5C TO 8C. VWP DATA SHOW EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR ONLY MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUSTAINED STORM STRUCTURES...AND DOMINANT
   STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORMS OVER NERN AR APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED
   A COLD POOL AND ARE FORWARD PROPAGATING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL
   AS HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES TOWARD WRN TN.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   36118578 35308891 35158992 36078988 37458817 37608571

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...
   
   VALID 200955Z - 201100Z
   
   LONE STORM REMAINS OVER SWRN TX JUST S OF DEL RIO. THIS STORM MAY
   STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   WW 217 SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED ONCE THIS STORM DISSIPATES.
   
   STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAVE MOSTLY
   DISSIPATED AS THEY CROSSED INTO SWRN TX...MOST LIKELY AS A RESULT OF
   ENCOUNTERING STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE OBSERVED 00Z RAOB
   FROM DEL RIO AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOW AN INVERSION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML IN THE 850 MB TO 700 MB LAYER...AND
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...
   
   30139975 28369965 28450116 30000109

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AR THROUGH NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216...
   
   VALID 201106Z - 201300Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
   CNTRL AR NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   SKELETAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING SEWD THROUGH NRN LA AND LATEST
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGER CAP IN THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY.
   FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN ZONE
   OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV THAT IS MOVING THROUGH NERN TX AND
   SWRN AR. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
   
   33829137 33769324 34999336 35209161

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218...219...
   
   VALID 201515Z - 201615Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 219.  PARTS OF WW 218 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY ANOTHER
   COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   MAIN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS JUST NOW PROGRESSING INTO
   THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM AREAS EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO WEST
   CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF
   STALLED SURFACE FRONT...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO AREAS
   ...INTO THE VICINITY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
   NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THOUGH NOT STRONG...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   TRANSPORTING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
   ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MOST VIGOROUS
   STORMS...WITH LARGEST HAIL POTENTIAL...SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN FOCUSED
   IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF DEL RIO THROUGH
   18Z.  HOWEVER...MORE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY BE SLOW TO
   DIMINISH IN AREAS TO THE NORTH..
   
   ..KERR.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   30170182 30950250 31750256 32570207 33100112 33170055
   33209995 32859941 32539889 32029915 31259985 30639964
   30129947 29639986 29610053 29930147

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MS...NRN/CENTRAL AL...NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201619Z - 201745Z
   
   ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS TN...CONVECTION MAY
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NRN
   MS/NRN AL AND AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY OVER NWRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HRS. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL
   SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT. A WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED SOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM GLH TO
   TUP IN NRN MS...ENEWD TO FAR NRN AL. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED
   OVER FAR NERN AL/NWRN GA. WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS EVIDENT OVER
   ALL OF THIS AREA THAN IS PRESENT FURTHER NORTH...WITH AREA VWP/S
   INDICATING AROUND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AS OPPOSED TO THE 40-50
   KTS OF FLOW OVER TN AND NRN AR. HOWEVER...STRONGER FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA FORM THE SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER
   WAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED OVER THIS AREA
   WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 DEG C/KM/ NOTED ON BMX AND
   SHV 12Z SOUNDINGS. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH CAN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZE AND REMOVE REMAINING CINH OVER NRN MS/AL GIVEN
   EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OR MOVING INTO
   THE AREA. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT ADDITIONAL HEATING DOES
   OCCUR...FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN MS/AL
   AND NWRN GA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   34948535 34748795 34588818 33799062 33589067 33269092
   32459031 32898701 33148549 33858421 34838411

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SRN OH...W VA...WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201624Z - 201830Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
   SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/
   TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS MOSTLY BASED ABOVE
   LINGERING RADIATIONAL INVERSION LAYER...SUPPORTED BY BROAD ZONE OF
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PERHAPS AIDED BY INCREASINGLY
   DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
   ...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
   18-20Z TIME FRAME. 
   
   CUT-OFF FROM GULF MOISTURE RETURN...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE
   NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS.  THIS WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS
   AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...WEAK SURFACE
   BASED DESTABILIZATION SEEMS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
   INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THAT MAY APPROACH
   SEVERE LIMITS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   38528483 39238460 39478267 39238134 38338071 37038059
   36368105 35408230 34988328 35188457 35698469 36188472
   37278438 38178455

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219...220...
   
   VALID 201821Z - 201945Z
   
   HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
   ...BUT MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
   TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS.  NEW WWS NORTH/EAST OF 219/220
   MAY NOT BE NEEDED.  DRY LINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW CROSSING THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE
   LIFTED THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND/PECOS VALLEY REGION. MID/UPPER
   FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OF THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z...ACCOMPANIED
   BY STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT
   THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN DIRECTED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. WITH LOSS OF BETTER
   MOIST INFLOW...ONGOING CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS IT PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO CENTRAL
   TEXAS...AND WEAKER CAPE MAY MITIGATE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   AS CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO
   WARM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...AND
   SURFACE FRONT MAY REDEVELOP NORTHWARD...CLOSER TO MIDLAND/JUNCTION
   AND AUSTIN.  HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING CAP MAY INHIBIT FURTHER
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FORCING WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE BEGINS
   TO INTERACT WITH DRY LINE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   32360261 33090168 33209964 33309800 33309667 32549541
   31029570 30119771 29829870 30310038 30690162 30210198
   29910221 30040266 31350285

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN...NRN/CENTRAL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...
   
   VALID 201838Z - 202045Z
   
   CONTINUE ALL OF WW 221.
   
   WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER ARE
   LIKELY THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR NEW DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...A FEW MORE HRS OF
   HEATING AND LIKELY CLEARING OF SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD AID IN
   A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER WW 221 BY
   MID-AFTERNOON.
   
   FURTHER WEST...A WELL DEFINED MCV ON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE ARKLATEX
   WAS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   WAS WELL DEFINED EXTENDING FROM SERN AR ENEWD INTO NRN MS. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MS HAS
   LITTLE REMAINING CINH. WITH THE FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT...SCT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
   OVER NRN/CENTRAL MS IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WOULD SUPPORT A SVR THREAT WITH ANY
   TSTMS. THUS...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED WEST OF WW 221 IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   35068784 35648756 35598481 34458526 33068577 32918872
   32929108 33459119 34499034

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...WRN NC AND UPSTATE SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201853Z - 202100Z
   
   CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER FAR SERN TN/NWRN GA UNDER
   THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS TN AND ON THE NRN END
   OF INSTABILITY AXIS. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY INCREASING SVR
   THREAT OVER THIS AREA...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   18Z SOUNDING FROM ATLANTA SHOWS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG /. CONVECTION
   RECENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER NWRN GA AND SERN TN WAS IN AN AXIS WHERE
   DEWPTS AND INSTABILITY WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
   ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DESPITE
   SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER NERN GA...WRN NC/UPSTATE SC THERE
   MAY BE SOME MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO THIS AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   36038242 35738357 35298429 35008455 34678466 34228430
   34138395 34128331 34778234 35598163

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW THRU CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219...220...
   
   VALID 201958Z - 202100Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW TORNADO
   WATCH BEFORE 21Z.
   
   SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS
   EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE TRANS PECOS REGION.
   THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH
   OF OUTFLOW ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING
   INHIBITION.  MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN
   EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION SHIFTING
   FROM SOUTH OF MIDLAND THROUGH THE JUNCTION AREA BETWEEN 20/21-21/00Z
   SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FOCUS FOR INTENSE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.  WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT IN LOWER-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS 50 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM NOSES ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  RISK OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ALONG
   WITH CONTINUING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   31000221 31830226 31750099 31340038 31299959 31239871
   30679771 29649824 29369952 29920118 30400237

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN AND NRN/WRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...
   
   VALID 202040Z - 202245Z
   
   GREATEST SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER WW 221 WILL BE ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SERN PORTIONS OF WW 221 / CENTRAL AND NERN AL / WITH CLUSTER
   OF STG-SVR STORMS ONGOING. THREAT FOR SVR APPEARS TO BE MOST
   MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AS MID LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER OUTFLOW AIR REDUCES RENEWED CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
   OF TUP TO NEAR BHM TO NERN AL/NWRN GA. SVR STORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
   CENTRAL/NERN AL IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
   VICINITY OF A MESOLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE BHM AREA. MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER WCENTRAL GA SUGGESTS THAT THE
   SVR THREAT SHOULD EXTEND EAST OF WW 221. CURRENT STORM MOTIONS WOULD
   TAKE THE SVR THREAT WITH THIS CLUSTER INTO FAR ECENTRAL AL/WCENTRAL
   GA BEGINNING AROUND 22Z. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT DEVELOP EWD
   ACROSS ALL OF NRN GA...AS AN N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING JUST
   EAST OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA SWD TO NEAR MCN SHOULD REMAIN IN
   PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR NRN GA
   SHORTLY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35478481 35488795 34998808 32908830 32938495 33008379
   34978339 35008496

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...PARTS OF SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202054Z - 202200Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   INSOLATION AND MID-LEVEL COOLING...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
   TROUGH...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  BOUNDARY LAYER IS RATHER DRY...BUT DEEPLY MIXED
   AND SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY HAS
   INITIATED ALONG WAVE/OUTFLOW PROPAGATING WESTWARD OUT OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
   AXIS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IS ALSO BECOMING FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY IN
   RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL FORCING. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STRONGER
   CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG EFFECTIVE
   SURFACE FRONT INTO AREAS WEST OF MIDLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR
   IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH
   MAY ENHANCE RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...DESPITE LIMITED CAPE.
   OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
   CELLS.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   36520494 35560442 34250395 33550390 32850346 32300311
   32000282 31410304 31620401 32780537 34480597

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NRN MS AND SWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222...
   
   VALID 202115Z - 202315Z
   
   TSTMS HAVE HAD TROUBLE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES ACROSS WW 222 OVER THE
   LAST FEW HRS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION AS ASCENT REMAINS AHEAD OF WEAK VORT
   MAX OVER AR AND SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDS IN SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE.
   
   STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY HAVE SINCE
   DISSIPATED. HOWEVER SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOLOW OVER SERN AR...AND
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION.
   ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF GLH TO CBM.
   THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A SVR THREAT FOR
   ANY STORM THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SVR STORM TO
   DEVELOP NORTH OF WW 222 ACROSS SWRN TN WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXIST. HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
   THE SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND ANOTHER WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   34978811 35558820 35918902 35019031 34819050 34199220
   32949245 33038996 33098838

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223...
   
   VALID 202254Z - 210030Z
   
   AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER SCNTRL TX JUST EAST OF THE
   AUSTIN AREA. AS THE COMPLEX MOVES SLOWLY EWD...THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD INCREASE EAST OF WW 223.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM NE TX
   ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE
   MID 60S F WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM SOUTH TX
   EXTENDING NNEWD JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
   SEWD AND A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ALLOWING THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SE
   TX THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 55 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL TX MOVING EWD. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
   AFFECT SE TX SUSTAINING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKER OVER
   SE TX KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   29169724 29919769 30439746 30699659 30959560 30299485
   29339563

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL AND NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...225...
   
   VALID 202311Z - 210115Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR WILL CONTINUE WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTER ACROSS MUCH OF
   WW 225 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN PORTION OF
   THE ATL METRO AREA BETWEEN 00-01Z. FURTHER WEST...SVR THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER WW 221 IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. THUS A NEW WW TO
   REPLACE WW 221 IS NOT LIKELY ATTM...ALTHOUGH LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IS
   POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED
   OVER NERN AL ASSOCIATED WITH SVR TSTM CLUSTER MOVING OUT OF WW 221
   INTO WW 225 /NWRN GA/. GIVEN ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NOTED ON THE 18Z ATL SOUNDING / DMGG
   WINDS MAY BECOME THE GREATER SVR THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARDS
   THE ATL METRO AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLUSTER...SSWLY FLOW OF
   10-20 KTS /NOTED ON RECENT BMX VWP DATA/ WAS ORTHOGONAL TO THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL AL. COMBINED WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CINH THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS TO THE EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
   NCENTRAL/NERN AL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
   INSTABILITY AFTER 00Z /WITH LOSS OF HEATING / COMBINED WITH
   DISPLACEMENT OF CONVECTION FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY /NOTED ON BMX RADAR/ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING SVR
   THREAT WITH TIME. THE DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A
   GRADUAL DEMISE OF ISOLATED SVR STORM NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER...BUT NOT
   BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH
   THIS STORM. LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
   MAY AID IN A BRIEF LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS STORM AROUND
   00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   35158506 34678822 33368850 33298603 33068613 33008428
   34998343 34988503

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222...
   
   VALID 210035Z - 210200Z
   
   SVR TSTM THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW DURING THE REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 222 THROUGH THE REST OF THE WATCH VALID TIME /02Z/.
   WILL KEEP PORTIONS OF SERN AR/NRN MS IN THE WW 222 UNTIL THEN IN
   CASE NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
   
   00Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED AN INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 700 MB THAT IS
   LIKELY PART OF THE REASON CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO BE SUSTAINED OVER
   MUCH OF WW 222 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH LIMITED
   CONVERGENCE...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS /REF 00Z SHV AND JAN SOUNDINGS/
   AND DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NIGHTFALL...IT IS A VERY LOW
   PROBABILITY THAT NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BEFORE 02Z.
   HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT
   OF ERN TX...WAA WILL INCREASE. GIVEN RELATIVELY LIMITED CINH OVER
   NRN LA /PER THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING/ NEW SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY
   INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WELL
   AFTER 02Z...SO WW 222 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   34908830 34229181 32969174 32898964 33158822

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...
   
   VALID 210055Z - 210300Z
   
   SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT EXTEND MUCH EAST OF WW 225 ACROSS NERN GA AND
   THUS A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED. SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAINLY
   CONFINED OVER ERN/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 225 FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
   HOWEVER ELEVATED TSTMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WEST OF
   THIS CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN GA.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH
   NRN GA /INCLUDING THE ATL METRO AREA/. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WITH THIS LINE FOR THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 225. THERE MAY BE A
   MARGINAL SVR THREAT JUST EAST OF WW 225...BUT AREAL EXTENT OF MODEST
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY A 1-2 ROWS OF COUNTIES EAST OF
   WW 225 AS STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER NERN/ECENTRAL GA SUPPORTED BY ELY
   LOW LEVEL FLOW.
   
   FURTHER WEST...ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS WORKED OVER ACROSS NWRN GA BEHIND
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSWLY WINDS ATOP
   MESO-HIGH OVER NWRN GA MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HRS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA MAY
   BE CLEARED FROM WW 225 BY 02Z IF NEW TSTM INITIATION FAILS TO OCCUR
   BEFORE THEN.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34998531 33028612 33038414 33138323 34988316

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN / FAR NW MS / MUCH OF AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 210231Z - 210400Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A THREAT OF SOME SVR HAIL. A WW COULD BE
   REQUIRED SOON.
   
   LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB
   TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NRN MS INTO SRN AR / NRN LA. ALTHOUGH
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...CAPPING EXISTS AS SEEN ON
   00Z JAN SOUNDING AS WELL AS TAMDAR DATA ACROSS CENTRAL
   MS...DECREASING TO THE NORTH WITH NO CAP ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY
   FROM WRN TN ACROSS FAR NRN MS AND INTO CENTRAL AR. MODERATE WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG WITH APPROACHING UPPER VORT ASSOCIATED WITH E TX
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   33709124 34268958 35008829 35388715 36558711 36458834
   36219006 35039267 34249411 33669420 33289369 33289259

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND  NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...
   
   VALID 210353Z - 210530Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AS OF 330Z ACROSS MUCH OF WW
   228...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER NWRN AL. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
   MAIN SVR THREAT.
   
   ISOLATED STORMS PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE LYING NW-SE
   ACROSS AL. MOST OF THE AIRMASS E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN AFFECTED
   BY COOL OUTFLOW INTO NERN AL AND NWRN GA...THUS STORMS HAVE SHOWN
   WEAKENING TRENDS AS THEY MOVE NEWD.
   
   AREA WIND PROFILERS/VWPS DO SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW /850 MB/
   AROUND 15-20 KTS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FEED STORMS ALONG THE WARM
   FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ALTHOUGH
   COMBINATION OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH COOLING BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL LIKELY CAUSE STORMS TO EVENTUALLY DIE OVER CENTRAL AND
   ERN AL.
   
   GREATER THREAT FOR SVR EXIST ACROSS NWRN AL...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
   INSTABILITY POOL NOW OVER NRN MS. APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL CAUSE
   STORMS TO INCREASE TO THE WEST OF WW 228 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO NWRN AL LATER
   TONIGHT WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34998815 35008685 33568632 32648621 32488664 33008825

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CDT THU APR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX/NRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227...
   
   VALID 210426Z - 210600Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
   WW 227 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND INTO
   NRN LA AS THE MCS DRIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS EAST TX
   WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO
   NW LA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
   60S F AND THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS
   WRN AND CNTRL LA. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW 40-45 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
   BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE MCS MOVES INTO NRN AND
   CNTRL LA AFTER 06Z.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   30339389 30419480 30789528 31389526 32379418 32749254
   32139154 31019235