What's happening with the BOC system?

[Guest]

Is the convection still out there or did it dissapiate? Updates please?

Patricia

[vbhoutex]

BASICALLY NADA!! The largest area of storms continues to be just offshore or just inland along the S BOC shore. Even if something were to try and develop in this area, and it is a little favorable, as soon as it started to trek N or NE or E it would be torn apart by a westerly jet coming out of Mexico that hits the Central GOM and turns right and dives right through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean which will also inhibit any development in that area.

[Stormsfury]

Just as I expected that the cluster would dissipate overnight ... as was pointed out last night in another thread (MWatkins), the system was more cold core natured.

[chadtm80]

Yup, i said last night in chat would vanish by morning

[Rainband]

I still say the G.O.M. will be the area of second development

[chadtm80]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

It's firing up again with convection. Wonder if it will even be a rainmaker for someone.

P

[southerngale]

Yeah, hopefully for someone who needs rain.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

[chadtm80]

If it sits a few days over water there then there is a slight chance... Sheer seems to be lessening?

[Guest]

That's what I keep reading Chad - that the shear is lessening. One of the numerous factors that have to be in place for development. I am just glad to have something to watch.

P

[southerngale]

24 Hour Shear Tendency:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[Rainband]

We will have to wait and see but it looks like the epac convection is influencing it..

[Rainband]

[Derecho]

As a zit currently forming on my forehead.

Actually, the African wave is more interesting (as can be seen in the TAFB discussion.)

The center of the low pressure is a broad low WELL inland covering central Mexico. You won't be physically able to close off a low over water when there is lower pressure over land.

There's not the slightest hint of rotation.

And the shear is actually pretty bad; it's north of an Anticyclone. Can see it on sat pics.

[Rainband]

As a zit currently forming on my forehead.

Actually, the African wave is more interesting (as can be seen in the TAFB discussion.)

The center of the low pressure is a broad low WELL inland covering central Mexico. You won't be physically able to close off a low over water when there is lower pressure over land.

There's not the slightest hint of rotation.

And the shear is actually pretty bad; it's north of an Anticyclone. Can see it on sat pics.

I know I read the (wave)area was basically not visable and the position had to be readjusted by the midlevel circulation..I find this area very interesting too.. here's the dirt

:tropical wave held along 35w S of 13n moving W at a mean speed
of 10 kt over the past 24 hours. High pres over the atlc remains
strong...and the wave is all but invisible to the naked eye.
With no observations at hand to place the wave...a weak cyclonic
spin in the mid-level flow N of 10n between 33w-37w has been
used to adjust the wave's position. While no convection has
formed along the wave...the ITCZ has taken on an odd structure
by being pulled to the N about 5 deg E of the wave axis.
Tropical wave along 57w S of 10n moving W 10 kt. With upper-air
observations from Cayenne not available since 6/3 00 UTC...
satellite imagery is again the primary tool for wave placement.
A decent flare-up of convection has occurred within the ITCZ
over the past several hours and so a placement near the
suriname/Guyana border seems reasonable. Even still the wave
remains extremely low latitude as it treks across nrn S America.

[OtherHD]

Latest shear tendency map. Shear lessening? Take a look!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[MWatkins]

Repost from tonights update...

The GFS and to some extent the NOGAPS have been screaming for days that a surface trough would develop over Mexico and stretch from the Pacific to the Southeast Gulf. The models here are correct...but then the solutions diverge. A couple of days ago...the GFS was developing a strong Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern Pacific and steering it into central Mexico. It has dropped that solution (predictably) and now wants to develop a TC in the Gulf over the next 60 hours or so...whereas the NOGAPS solution leaves a low pressure trough hanging around with no real development.

I tend to believe the NOGAPS solution for a couple of reasons. The GFS has been overdeveloping TC's all year...and it appears that convective feedback is developing systems in the model where none should be. Just look at any recent runs for this...there are Atlantic spurious lows spinning in the model from Houston to Cape Verde.

Second...none of the other models are even close to developing anything out of the low...which is over land and responding to daytime heating...the exact opposite mechanism needed for TC formation.

The GFS has been overdoing low after low over water all spring long. Until another model picks up on it...and any reasonable signs of persistence...it looks like a rainy but uneventful couple of days for Mexico and possibly Texas down the road. However...tropical development is unlikely...at best.

MW

[Rainband]

Great discussion MW..I agree and am enjoying your posts..very informative.

[MWatkins]

Nice board here. Much more active than some others...good to see some faces (well names at least) that I haven't seen for a while...

MW