MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS / SWRN TN / EXTREME NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...
   
   VALID 210504Z - 210700Z
   
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING. LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED AS WELL.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS ROTATION DEVELOPING WITH CELLS OVER NRN MS / SWRN
   TN. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES INTO NRN
   MS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDS SURFACE BASED
   PARCELS WITH LITTLE CIN IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   FURTHER...AREA VAD WIND PROFILES ARE SHOWING STRONGER LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY RUC. WHILE THEY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
   STRONG WHEN COMPARED TO LOCAL ACARS/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS AT
   LEAST 20-25 KT VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW EXIST OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS
   RESULTING IN 0-1 SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. THUS...AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
   BEING SURFACE DECOUPLING AS REFLECTED IN WEAK SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF
   5 KTS OR LESS. A POTENTIAL SIGN OF INCREASED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
   AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS AND WITHIN RELATIVELY
   WARMER / 70S / TEMPERATURES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   33859016 34349025 34958944 35298897 35448815 35248788
   34538789 34128817

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...
   
   VALID 210612Z - 210815Z
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS
   CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX -- FROM NERN HILL COUNTRY W ACT...SWWD ACROSS
   HILL COUNTRY AND LOWLANDS NE DRT.  ALTHOUGH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL AS IT MOVES EWD AND SEWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE
   INFLOW...MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS AREA
   BETWEEN AUS-COT...INCLUDING SAT.  WW 230 IS THEREFORE REQUIRED.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
   ABOUT 20 S DRT....ENEWD THROUGH HDO...SAT...IAH.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS
   BEEN REINFORCED BY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE TO ITS N DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
   SFC-BASED...GIVEN STATIC STABILITY APPARENT NEAR SFC IN MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- APPARENT ON 00Z DRT RAOB -- AND LOW LEVEL
   WAA/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP STABLE LAYER -- CONTRIBUTES TO FAVORABLE
   BUOYANCY.  ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EVIDENT WITHIN ABOUT
   70-90 NM OF BOUNDARY...DECREASING GRADUALLY FARTHER NWD OVER CENTRAL
   TX.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTOR SPEEDS OF 40-60 KT SUGGEST SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL TX
   VICINITY SAT...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  TSTMS
   MOVING ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY SFC-BASED...AND MAY
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   29100080 29900037 30429949 31079837 30999775 30609688
   30339662 29839657 29029698 28519861 28000001 28140006
   28250026 28480035 28670048 28930062 29060065

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN AR...NRN LA...NRN MS...TN...NRN
   AL...NWRN GA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...
   
   VALID 210715Z - 210915Z
   
   WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG/NE OF LA/AR MCS.  AREAS SE AND E OF WW
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
   SWRN PORTIONS WW...FROM E-CENTRAL AR TO N-CENTRAL LA -- AND ALSO
   ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WRN-MIDDLE TN.  MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
   HAIL...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN
   AR...NERN LA AND NWRN MS GIVEN NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW LAYERS
   EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  RUC WIND PROFILES IN LOW LEVELS
   APPEAR TOO WEAK ACROSS NRN MS COMPARED TO OBSERVED VWP...WITH RADAR
   DERIVED 0-1 KM SRH REACHING 300-400 J/KG RANGE AND OBSERVED 0-6 KM
   AGL SHEAR AROUND 50 KT.  THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
   CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS...FROM
   MCN...20 W BHM...20 WNW MSL.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
   QUASISTATIONARY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   FROM AL/TN BORDER AREA ENEWD ALMOST TO TYS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST
   ADVECTION...WELL N OF SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AS ELEVATED AIR MASS
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NEWD ACROSS SRN-MIDDLE TN...ERN TN AND
   EXTREME NWRN GA...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
   NEITHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR NOR ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD BE AS LARGE AS
   FARTHER W IN WW...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM
   THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES NEWD 20-25 KT.
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS PRODUCED HAIL TO NEAR .88 INCH DIAMETER INVOF
   TCL...WITH LEFT SPLIT MOVING NNEWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN TCL-HSV.
   ALTHOUGH AIR MASS HAS DIABATICALLY STABILIZED IN SKIN LAYER NEAR
   SFC...EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED...AMIDST ENOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   32299338 33049253 34809148 36598573 36458455 35678404
   34658485 33648609 33248759 34488754

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0413 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230...
   
   VALID 210913Z - 211115Z
   
   QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EVOLVED FROM PREVIOUSLY BROKEN
   BAND OF DISCRETE CELLS AND...AS OF 845Z...EXTENDED FROM SRN FRINGES
   SAT METRO AREA NEWD TO NRN BRAZOS COUNTY.  MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION
   SHOULD CROSS AREA FROM VCT THROUGH HOU.  ALTHOUGH A FEW ELEVATED
   TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER REINFORCING OUTFLOW POOL...SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MEAGER WITH SUCH ACTIVITY...AND WW MAY BE
   CLEARED FROM NW-SE AS MCS MOVES BY.  PROSPECTIVE PATH OF MCS --
   TOWARD MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST -- MAY REQUIRE WW SOON.
   
   AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE TSTMS...ACROSS SE TX...APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
   MCS TO MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...PRODUCING
   OCCASIONAL HAIL.  DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN MIDDLE-SRN
   PORTION OF MCS...WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER IS SHALLOWEST...AND
   MOST PENETRABLE BY STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
   QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SABINE/NEWTON COUNTY
   LINE WSWWD NEAR IAH...THEN APPROXIMATELY 50 N VCT...BEFORE BEING
   OVERTAKEN BY SRN PORTION OF MCS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFTED
   PARCELS S OF BOUNDARY ARE SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO.  HOWEVER...THESE
   PARCELS ARE RESTRICTED FROM ASCENT BY CAPPING IN 750-850 MB
   LAYER...WHICH INCREASES WITH SRN EXTENT.  LLJ HAS INCREASED TO 40 KT
   S OF MCS...PER CRP VWP TRENDS. MCS MAY BACKBUILD SLGTLY AMIDST
   FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
   HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL RESULT FROM FORCED
   ASCENT TO LFC...ALONG THAT PORTION OF OUTFLOW EDGE IN AND S OF SFC
   FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   29209947 29429891 29749811 30259751 30649699 30799663
   30509549 29649502 28729562 28109671 28009752 28399917
   28529971 28610000 28830010 28920006 29029989

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NW AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...
   
   VALID 211000Z - 211100Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR SPURIOUS LINE SEGMENT
   
   MAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS
   FAR NRN MS WHERE OUTFLOW FROM W MERGES WITH E-W BOUNDARY JUST N OF
   THE TN BORDER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY
   DIMINISH TO THE POINT THAT ANOTHER WW IS NOT NECESSARY.
   
   ONE MCS WITH A WEAK BOW STRUCTURE IS MOVING ENEWD INTO NW MS...WHILE
   OTHER CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG A DIFFUSE E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN. THE WRN MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
   NRN MS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOR SPORADIC
   HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...THE ERN PROGRESS OF THE
   STRONGER STORMS MAY BE LIMITED LATER THIS MORNING BY GRADUALLY
   DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVER NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN.  GIVEN THE
   WEAKENING TRENDS NOTED IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE FORECAST
   OF DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH TIME...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED AFTER WW 229 EXPIRES AT 10Z.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   33808928 33959006 34429018 35099004 35498957 35668827
   35588700 35338665 34728656 34348669 33908767

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...EXTREME SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231...
   
   VALID 211138Z - 211345Z
   
   ORGANIZED MCS/BOW WITH SMALLER EMBEDDED LEWP FEATURES WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. TSTMS SHOULD MOVE
   OFFSHORE ARANSAS/CALHOUN/MATAGORDA/BRAZORIA/GALVESTON COUNTIES
   BETWEEN 12Z-13Z...AND OFFSHORE CHAMBERS COUNTY BY ABOUT 14Z.  MRGLLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND 50-52 KT GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
   HAIL REMAINS WITH THIS MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FAVORABLY MOIST AIR
   MASS ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...ANALYZED AT
   11Z FROM NRN PORTIONS HOU METRO AREA NEWD PAST POE.  CONVECTION WILL
   BE SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW 70S F IN INFLOW LAYER...WITH
   SBCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG S OF BOUNDARY...AND STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT TO
   LFC ALONG LEADING PORTION OF OUTFLOW SLAB.  KINEMATIC PROFILES
   REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH 100-200 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH...40-50 KT 0-6 KM
   SHEAR. NRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
   HARDIN/JEFFERSON/ORANGE COUNTIES JUST E OF WW...AS WELL AS CAMERON
   PARISH.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
   
   28829684 28769632 28989588 29339562 29709540 29979540
   30269555 30369531 30119436 30019358 29759318 29449329
   29179444 28299596 28279666

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0951 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211451Z - 211615Z
   
   WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MAINTENANCE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY
   TO REMAIN THE CASE AS IT SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
   AND SOUTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
   LOUISIANA THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH CENTRAL
   ALABAMA...REMAINS MOIST...AND WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   WITH HEATING.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF
   2000 J/KG...AND SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
   CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOWS SUPPORT INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT...
   BUT APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
   CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  BENEATH 40+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...THIS
   WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLY STRONG MEAN FLOW/SHEAR REGIME FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK
   OF LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   32569148 32779086 32849026 33098966 33188874 32218874
   31758908 31098937 30498951 29938979 29708972 29499024
   29449087 29699171 29789230 30029265 30449261 30979242
   31339195 31839168 32169164

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL...ERN TN...NW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211717Z - 211845Z
   
   SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING.  THIS
   SHOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   INITIAL SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY.  50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK SEEMS
   TO BE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...AND MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
   TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
   HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AND AHEAD OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME MAY BECOME
   FOCUS FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE 19-20Z TIME
   FRAME.
   
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA IS DEEPENING WITH INSOLATION.  AS
   TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE LOWER 80S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED
   TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION.  LARGE HAIL MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   34998618 35658598 36368452 36338366 35578355 35378371
   34358429 33538489 32768617 32358731 32538818 33158816
   34138711

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...CNTRL/SRN MS...INTO CNTRL/SRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...
   
   VALID 211752Z - 211915Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON
   
   CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD POOL IS PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NATCHEZ/
   BATON ROUGE/LAFAYETTE AREAS.  THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR
   INTENSIFYING CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS
   DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  ACTIVITY IS
   NOW LIKELY BASED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION.  THIS AIR MASS
   EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
   WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHERE CAPE MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY
   PEAK HEATING.
   
   DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING/SHEAR ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SOUTHERN
   BRANCH TROUGH/JET STREAK ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED EVOLUTION
   OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. AS SURFACE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS...
   EASTWARD ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 30-40+ KT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS. GUST FRONT MAY ADVANCE EAST OF THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
   BORDER BY 21-22Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   32489031 32998906 33018834 33078771 32778738 32338709
   31798710 31228726 30838735 30188768 29758804 29428857
   29088939 28969007 29089072 30419060 31009088

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL AND FAR
   SOUTHERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211848Z - 212045Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   WILL EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
   GA. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   WITH LITTLE OR NO BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
   INTERACTIONS ARE LEADING TO DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS INTERIOR
   PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WITH FIRST STORM
   DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN OCALA AND BROOKSVILLE FL. INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   INTERIOR FL INTO SOUTHERN GA...WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG PER
   CURRENT TRENDS/ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
   WILL BE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /15 KTS OR LESS 0-6 KM PER
   CURRENT WSR-88D VWPS AND REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/. A PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE THE NORM WITH THE SLOW MOVING
   STORMS...WITH THREATS FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS/HAIL AND PERHAPS
   A TORNADO VIA BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   OVERALL THREAT SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   30578310 30928259 30538175 28148098 27668186 28438241
   29938298

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MS...GA...AL...WRN FL PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...233...
   
   VALID 212039Z - 212145Z
   
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 232 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 233.  PARTS OF SOUTHERN/
   EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN GEORGIA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS YET TO EVOLVE...BUT STILL
   APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF LOUISIANA/
   MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  INFLUX OF DRIER LOWER
   /MID TROPOSPHERIC AIR AND DOWNWARD MIXING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/
   EASTERN ALABAMA HAS LOWERED BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SOME.
   HOWEVER...MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH 40
   TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BIRMINGHAM SHORTLY...AND LIKELY
   MONTGOMERY BY 22-23Z...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN
   AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY 22/00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31738815 32628837 33628714 34678430 33588378 32508417
   31098546 30798673 30928818

[alicia-w]

NOAA's NWS will be accepting comments on proposed IWIN replacement pages until April 30, 2006. Please learn more about the replacement and how to leave a comment here


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WUUS54 KLIX 212021
SVRLIX
MSC059-212115-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0024.060421T2020Z-060421T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS
POINT...ESCATAWPA

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF ST. MARTIN TO BILOXI TO LONG BEACH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OCEAN SPRINGS BY 340 PM CDT
VANCLEAVE AND GULF PARK ESTATES BY 345 PM CDT
WADE BY 355 PM CDT
GAUTIER AND ESCATAWPA BY 400 PM CDT
MOSS POINT BY 405 PM CDT
PASCAGOULA BY 410 PM CDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET.

LAT...LON 3033 8842 3035 8874 3042 8887 3073 8887
3073 8843

$$

24




WUUS54 KLIX 212021
SVRLIX
MSC059-212115-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0024.060421T2020Z-060421T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS
POINT...ESCATAWPA

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 314 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF ST. MARTIN TO BILOXI TO LONG BEACH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OCEAN SPRINGS BY 340 PM CDT
VANCLEAVE AND GULF PARK ESTATES BY 345 PM CDT
WADE BY 355 PM CDT
GAUTIER AND ESCATAWPA BY 400 PM CDT
MOSS POINT BY 405 PM CDT
PASCAGOULA BY 410 PM CDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET.

LAT...LON 3033 8842 3035 8874 3042 8887 3073 8887
3073 8843

$$

24





WUUS54 KLIX 211951
SVRLIX
MSC047-212030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0023.060421T1949Z-060421T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
249 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT...
BILOXI

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...HANCOCK COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL IN KILN. DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PASS CHRISTIAN...OR NEAR
DIAMONDHEAD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PASS CHRISTIAN BY 255 PM CDT
LONG BEACH BY 305 PM CDT
7 MILES SOUTH OF LYMAN BY 310 PM CDT
GULFPORT BY 315 PM CDT
BILOXI AND ST. MARTIN BY 330 PM CDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET.

LAT...LON 3037 8927 3038 8933 3048 8933 3055 8887
3043 8887 3035 8879 3040 8890 3039 8902
3035 8908 3037 8909 3032 8928

$$

24





WUUS54 KLIX 211951
SVRLIX
MSC047-212030-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0023.060421T1949Z-060421T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
249 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT...
BILOXI

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...HANCOCK COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL IN KILN. DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PASS CHRISTIAN...OR NEAR
DIAMONDHEAD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PASS CHRISTIAN BY 255 PM CDT
LONG BEACH BY 305 PM CDT
7 MILES SOUTH OF LYMAN BY 310 PM CDT
GULFPORT BY 315 PM CDT
BILOXI AND ST. MARTIN BY 330 PM CDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET.

LAT...LON 3037 8927 3038 8933 3048 8933 3055 8887
3043 8887 3035 8879 3040 8890 3039 8902
3035 8908 3037 8909 3032 8928

$$

24




WUUS54 KMOB 211929
SVRMOB
ALC023-MSC153-212015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0060.060421T1929Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WOODWARDS...OR ABOUT OVER WAYNESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOICE BY 235 PM CDT
GRETNA BY 255 PM CDT
ISNEY BY 300 PM CDT
EVANSBORO BY 310 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
TAKE COVER IN A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3174 8875 3166 8867 3183 8823 3203 8841

$$






WUUS54 KMOB 211929
SVRMOB
ALC023-MSC153-212015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0060.060421T1929Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WOODWARDS...OR ABOUT OVER WAYNESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOICE BY 235 PM CDT
GRETNA BY 255 PM CDT
ISNEY BY 300 PM CDT
EVANSBORO BY 310 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
TAKE COVER IN A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3174 8875 3166 8867 3183 8823 3203 8841

$$







WUUS54 KJAN 211925
SVRJAN
MSC035-073-212015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0159.060421T1925Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PETAL...HATTIESBURG
SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WEST HATTIESBURG

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PURVIS...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLARVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PURVIS BY 230 PM CDT...
HATTIESBURG BY 255 PM CDT...
PETAL BY 300 PM CDT...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3101 8963 3101 8934 3092 8932 3093 8914
3103 8915 3144 8914 3144 8945

$$

EEC







WUUS54 KJAN 211913
SVRJAN
MSC085-212015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0158.060421T1913Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
213 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BROOKHAVEN

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOGUE CHITTO...OR ABOUT 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKHAVEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROOKHAVEN BY 230 PM CDT...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3144 9066 3134 9049 3160 9025 3165 9025
3169 9026 3169 9043

$$

AEG







WUUS54 KJAN 211913
SVRJAN
MSC085-212015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0158.060421T1913Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
213 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BROOKHAVEN

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOGUE CHITTO...OR ABOUT 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKHAVEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROOKHAVEN BY 230 PM CDT...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3144 9066 3134 9049 3160 9025 3165 9025
3169 9026 3169 9043

$$

AEG






WUUS54 KJAN 211912
SVRJAN
MSC123-212015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0157.060421T1912Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MORTON...FOREST

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MORTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MORTON BY 220 PM CDT...
FOREST BY 235 PM CDT...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3254 8977 3235 8973 3223 8972 3224 8933
3258 8932

$$

GARRETT







WUUS54 KJAN 211912
SVRJAN
MSC123-212015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0157.060421T1912Z-060421T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MORTON...FOREST

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MORTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MORTON BY 220 PM CDT...
FOREST BY 235 PM CDT...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3254 8977 3235 8973 3223 8972 3224 8933
3258 8932

$$

GARRETT






WUUS54 KJAN 211830
SVRJAN
MSC089-211915-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0156.060421T1831Z-060421T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
131 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN...OR ABOUT 6
MILES EAST OF CANTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMDEN BY 150 PM CDT...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3271 8996 3253 8997 3261 8973 3286 8973

$$

EEC







WUUS54 KJAN 211823
SVRJAN
MSC121-211930-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0155.060421T1823Z-060421T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
123 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RICHLAND...PEARL...BRANDON

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FLORENCE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF RICHLAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FLORENCE BY 130 PM CDT...
STAR AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICHLAND BY 135 PM CDT...
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PEARL BY 145 PM CDT...
BRANDON BY 155 PM CDT...
PELAHATCHIE BY 220 PM CDT...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3215 9025 3205 9024 3207 8973 3229 8973
3258 8979

$$

GARRETT







WUUS54 KMOB 211806
SVRMOB
ALC129-MSC041-211845-
/O.NEW.KMOB.SV.W.0058.060421T1805Z-060421T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
WEST OF FRUITDALE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF LEAKESVILLE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FRUITDALE BY 110 PM CDT
YELLOW PINE BY 120 PM CDT
CHATOM BY 140 PM CDT
YARBO AND LOPER BY 145 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
TAKE COVER IN A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3160 8808 3156 8802 3125 8851 3133 8862
3143 8856 3143 8847 3144 8845 3160 8845
3169 8839 3169 8813

$$







WUUS54 KJAN 211749
SVRJAN
MSC089-211830-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0154.060421T1749Z-060421T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CANTON

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FLORA...OR ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF GLUCKSTADT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CANTON BY 120 PM CDT...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

LAT...LON 3250 9033 3250 9013 3270 8991 3269 9013
3266 9024 3261 9032

$$

EEC







This data is from the IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network)

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212057Z - 212300Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WILL INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA. A WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA
   COAST. AS THIS LOW NEARS THE COAST...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTINUE TO STEEPEN INTO INTERIOR CA. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY NOTED EAST OF THE BAY AREA...WITH INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE COASTAL
   AREAS INTO THE SACRAMENTO/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. PROGRESSIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH A MILD BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPPER
   40S/LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR MOST UNSTABLE
   CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY
   IN AREAS FROM SACRAMENTO/STOCKTON AND SOUTH. PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD
   IS LIKELY TO BE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW FUNNELS
   MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...
   
   40482263 40562202 40142158 39442099 38172048 36791933
   36461966 36372013 36902089 37822193 38772268 39342278

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC...WRN NC...FAR ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212322Z - 220045Z
   
   THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NERN GA
   WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN
   GA INTO WRN NC WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED
   THIS EVENING DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. DUE TO THE WEAK ASCENT...THE ACTIVITY
   SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND
   INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   33148225 33348288 33808313 34578338 36178343 36218141
   34908087 33358074

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 220105Z - 220300Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT OVER SE AL AND GA WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS
   EVENING AS AN MCS MOVES ENEWD TOWARD THE ATLANTA AREA. ADDITIONAL
   STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS SE AL AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SW GA
   LATER THIS EVENING. A WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY BY 0130Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
   ACROSS AL ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF ASCENT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
   ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS OR PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECASTS SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR WIND
   DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...THE SHEAR PROFILES AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31328422 31048503 31208593 31968640 32968604 33608527
   34478414 34078292 33248274

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...SE MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 220340Z - 220545Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
   AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SHOULD
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
   THIS AREA TONIGHT INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET
   APPROACHES THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
   WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS.
   THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A TORNADO
   POTENTIAL. ALSO...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...
   
   30028708 29978863 30268892 30718898 31248871 31408855
   31508754 31368603 31158502 30468489 30078536 29978692

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN AL...GA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235...
   
   VALID 220728Z - 220830Z
   
   WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8Z.  MRGL/ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL OR STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE MAY STILL OCCUR
   FROM MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN COMPLEX MOVING EWD FROM SERN AL
   OVER SRN GA.  HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT
   ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ATTM.  HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASE IN
   POTENTIAL FOR GEN TSTMS OVER SRN GA NEXT FEW HOURS...AS PORTIONS OF
   TSTM COMPLEX NOW OVER SERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE MOVE ENEWD.  CYCLONIC
   TURNING IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATES EMBEDDED MCV MOVING
   ENEWD 30-35 KT OVER AREA BETWEEN AUO-DHN AS OF 715Z...WHICH MAY
   ENHANCE INSTABILITY ALOFT...IN COMBINATION WITH
   WEAK/AMBIENT/MIDLEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INDICATED
   IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF MS/AL BORDER.  THIS MAY RESULT IN
   MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 1200 J/KG.  FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO COOL DIABATICALLY...ROOTING STRONGEST BUOYANCY ABOVE SFC
   INVOF MOIST/SWLY LLJ.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   
   31048581 31628608 32078604 32778491 32828364 32108278
   31248317 31068414

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SRN AL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236...
   
   VALID 220754Z - 220930Z
   
   BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELLS REMAIN
   ACROSS MOST OF WW AREA...HOWEVER ORIENTATION/STRUCTURE OF CONVECTION
   IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE. CONTINUATION OF THIS TREND MAY
   COMPEL EARLY CANCELLATION OF SOME OR ALL THIS WW.
   
   WITH VPS RADAR DATA MISSING...WW IS NOT WELL SAMPLED FOR
   OBSERVATIONAL WINDS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND
   WIND TRENDS FROM SERN AL RADAR SUGGEST SLOWLY DIMINISHING VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES...BUT WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR REMAINING TO
   ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS...YIELDING 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH OVER PORTIONS
   WRN FL PANHANDLE.  MLCAPES UP TOO 1500 J/KG ARE EVIDENT AS
   WELL...SUPPORTED BY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS.
   BY CONTRAST...CONVECTIVE MODE HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   DISORGANIZED AND LESS DISCRETE...WITH MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY ORIENTED
   NEARLY PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MEAN FLOW VECTORS.  WHEN
   ACCOUNTING FOR TRANSLATIONAL MCS MOTION...THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN
   SLIGHTLY ANAFRONTAL REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH EFFECTIVE
   BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO REDEVELOPING DISCRETE MODE.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY MOVE INLAND FROM GULF OR OCCUR OVER
   ANTECEDENT WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES APPEAR LOW ATTM
   BECAUSE OF PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN SFC FLOW AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
   MCS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   29778867 30388776 30958657 30858517 30558479 29968452
   29508508 29668569 29868687 29828789

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN NC...S-CENTRAL VA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221035Z - 221230Z
   
   TSTM SQUALL LINE -- EXTENDING FROM NC/VA BORDER VICINITY
   MTV...THROUGH GSO AREA TO UNION COUNTY NC AS OF 1015Z -- SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD 35-45 KT TOWARD S-CENTRAL VA.  OCCASIONAL
   GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA -- BUT CAPABLE OF DMG TO WEAK
   STRUCTURES AND TREES -- MAY CONTINUE ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL. ATTM...WW NOT EXPECTED.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM NERN WV SEWD ACROSS
   SERN VA...S OF WHICH SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-MID 60S F FOR
   ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE DIABATIC HEATING COMMENCES AND/OR
   CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES SOME
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS POSSIBLE FROM MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION
   THAT EVOLVED FROM MCV PRODUCED BY SE TX ACTIVITY 24 HOURS AGO.
   AHEAD OF THIS PERTURBATION...DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH BUOYANT LAYER...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES
   AROUND 700-800 J/KG ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC.  OBSERVATION SITES OVER
   NRN SC AND WRN NC CROSSED BY THIS LINE HAVE MEASURED GUSTS IN 25-37
   KT RANGE...LESS THAN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF SQUALL LINE ITSELF IN
   MOST AREAS.  RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC -- EVIDENT IN MODIFIED
   RUC SOUNDINGS -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STRENGTH AND AREAL EXTENT
   OF MOST INTENSE SFC WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
   34908048 35578028 35887997 36327995 36578013 37457841
   37287784 36607756 36457753 36017766 35177885

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN SC...S-CENTRAL/SERN NC.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221228Z - 221400Z
   
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.  SHORT/INTENSIFYING LINE OF
   TSTMS...LOCATED BETWEEN AGS-CAE AS OF 12Z -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   NEWD APPROXIMATELY 40 KT...CROSSING CAE AREA BY 13Z AND REACHING
   AREA BETWEEN FLO AND NC BORDER IN 14Z-15Z TIME FRAME GIVEN MOTION
   SIMILAR TO PRESENT.  THIS BAND OF TSTMS MAY EXPAND -- BACKBUILDING
   EWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS -- AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN
   ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE SFC-BASED.
   OCCASIONAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.
   
   EXPECT RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN ORDER FOR
   ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST 10-15 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW JUST
   ABOVE SFC...GIVEN 30-35 KT 850 MB WINDS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP.
   FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH ONSET OF
   DIABATIC SFC HEATING...WITH ONLY 2-3 DEG F WARMING NECESSARY TO
   ENSURE SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCEL BASED ON SHORT-TERM RUC FCST
   SOUNDINGS.  MLCAPES MAY RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG.  WEAK SFC FLOW WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES THROUGH 0-3 KM
   LAYER...YIELDING SRH 100-200 J/KG.  CAP APPARENT IN 12Z MHX SOUNDING
   WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT...AND WITH PROXIMITY TO INCREASING LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS
   GA ATTM.  THEREFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SEPARATE
   FROM AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND...OVER ERN CAROLINAS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   33278146 34148173 35248041 35727930 35537865 34877799
   33507909 33108034