Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

Gorky · #241 Postby **Gorky** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:26 pm

Looks like the eye wall replacement is nearing completion...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #242 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:30 pm

Now that its going north of the top end, we will have to watch if it turns southward into darwin. Its very possible.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #243 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:50 pm

By the track forecast it looks like the BOM has offically upgraded this to a cat6. This is out of this world now.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65811.shtml

DoctorHurricane2003 · #244 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:52 pm

um no Matt. There is no such thing as a category 6 (how many times do we have to go through this!?) That is just a product of the fact that their image resolution isn't great. It is a 5.

If you don't believe me, scroll down to the chart forecast...notice all of the intensity category forecasts say "5.00"

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #245 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:57 pm

Just joking I knew it was not a 6...

Coredesat · #246 Postby **Coredesat** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:00 pm

Please don't joke. This is serious.

#247 Postby **curtadams** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:14 pm

Are these intensity estimates based on anything other than satellite data? Automated Dvorak is very impressive but still could have a large error either high or low. Not particularly relevant for evacuations since Monica is a very dangerous storm but certainly relevant to the records that so fascinate us here.

Scorpion · #248 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:23 pm

Up to 925. T # 6.5 is not Cat 5.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #249 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:28 pm

125kt (10-min) or ~143KT (US 1-min) // Category 5 on both Aussie and Saffir-Simpson scales...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 52
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between GOULBURN
ISLAND and CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE ISLAND.

At 4 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 195
kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy, and 320 kilometres east of Elcho Island,
moving northwest at 10 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should maintain its
current intensity as it moves towards the west northwest during today.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY, from early this morning. GALES are
expected to increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour
in this area this afternoon. GALES near the outer edge of the cyclone may extend
west as far as GOULBURN ISLAND early on Monday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour may approach the northern Arnhem Land coast later today or
on Monday.

GALES may extend further west to CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE
ISLAND, during Monday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 138.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 10 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues between CAPE SHIELD and GOULBURN ISLAND.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to CAPE HOTHAM, including CAPE DON and MELVILLE
ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 8 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

HurricaneHunter914 · #250 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:42 pm

She is certainly taking her sweet time getting out of the gulf

Coredesat · #251 Postby **Coredesat** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:00 pm

WWPS20 KNES 222120
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN
.
APRIL 22 2006 2033Z
.
11.6S 138.2E T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITIONS....12.5S 139.1E 22/0733Z IRNIGHT
13.0S 139.5E 21/2000Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS....SYSTEM HAS REMAINED AT SIMILAR STRENGTH OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE LG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR A DT OF 6.5 WHICH
AGREES WITH PT. MET IS 7.0 BUT FT WILL REMAIN AT 6.5.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 23/0400Z.

Gorky · #252 Postby **Gorky** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:28 pm

She's looking so pretty right now :eek:

HurricaneHunter914 · #253 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:41 pm

she looks so big on that satellite image it looks like she might just eat the peninsula.

#254 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:45 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 53
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 am CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and CROKER ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends west for coastal and island communities between CROKER
ISLAND and DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN, JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.

At 7 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 175
kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy, and 300 kilometres east of Elcho Island,
moving west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves towards the west along the north coast
during today.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 320
kilometres per hour may impact far north coastal regions of Arnhem Land later
today.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are being experienced between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY. GALES are expected to increase to
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour in this area this
afternoon. GALES near the outer edge of the cyclone may extend west as far as
CROKER ISLAND early on Monday.

GALES will continue to extend westward and should be experienced over the TIWI
ISLANDS later Monday. GALES may develop at DARWIN by Tuesday morning and
progress to the DALY RIVER MOUTH later Tuesday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND during today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem land today, extending across the remainder of
the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 138.3 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 8 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 320 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between CAPE SHIELD and CROKER
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends west to DALY RIVER MOUTH, including DARWIN,
JABIRU and the TIWI ISLANDS.

The next advice will be issued at 11 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Trugunzn · #255 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:46 pm

She is really growing!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... anh26.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #256 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:48 pm

Is it just me or is that OVER 300 mph wind gusts on that forecast?

Trugunzn · #257 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:52 pm

http://www.geo-earth.com/forums/index.p ... t&id=19961

Trugunzn · #258 Postby **Trugunzn** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:03 pm

wow, check this out!

http://www.geo-earth.com/forums/index.p ... t&id=20060

#259 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:03 pm

On our scale, that would likely be a high-end Category 4 with about 155 mph winds.

HurricaneHunter914 · #260 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:04 pm

I'm wondering why they are weakening this system.

Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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