Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

Weatherfreak000 · #461 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:43 am

Ok, so...i'm guessing Monica is 160 sustained at this moment correct?

HurricaneHunter914 · #462 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:44 am

Isn't North Australia the flatest part of Australia? Because if it is then Monica is going to be taking her sweet time weakening.

Scorpion · #463 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:45 am

If that eye just drops a few miles south then it will be over land and weaken significantly. There is no way that the intensity shown on the Navy map will be correct. 130 kts after being over land for 12 hours? Riiight.

MiamiensisWx · #464 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:45 am

What are the current shear values west of Monica? How high/low are they, and are they increasing or decreasing?

#465 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:48 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Ok, so...i'm guessing Monica is 160 sustained at this moment correct?

More like 180 mph or to be exact 135 knots 10-min or 155 knots 1-min.

MiamiensisWx · #466 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:48 am

It's OK... I've found the shear values. Shear is low west of Monica; however, it is starting to increase slightly, and there is a pocket of 20KT shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/winds/wgmsshtw.html

#467 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:52 am

An eyewall replacement cycle could also weaken this beast, but it makes the storm larger and Darwin would be in the big winds even if it doesn't take a straight beeline there...

wxmann_91 · #468 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:14 am

Current shear maps indicate an UL anticyclone over the system. The nearly zero shear and excellent outflow in all quadrants has most likely helped this system intensify. In fact, IMO yesterday's visibles showed some of the strongest outflow I've ever seen in a system.

#469 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:27 am

#470 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:28 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone
emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 59
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and POINT STUART, including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between POINT STUART and PORT KEATS, including
DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

At 1 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 120
kilometres north northwest of NHULUNBUY, and 100 kilometres northeast of ELCHO
ISLAND, moving west at 15 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves further west, just north of the Top End
coast during the day. The cyclone is expected to weaken slightly as it passes
over the base of COBOURG PENINSULA tonight before reaching the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is currently affecting the islands of northeast Arnhem Land,
including the northern parts of ELCHO ISLAND. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core is then
expected to cross the north coast between MILINGIMBI and CROKER ISLAND later
today.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the remaining islands of northeast Arnhem Land, and are expected
to extend further west as far as CAPE DON during the day.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are expected to extend westwards to POINT
STUART and COBOURG PENINSULA tonight.

GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
NHULUNBUY and ELCHO ISLAND this morning, extending westwards to GOULBURN ISLAND
later today.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem Land this morning, extending across the
remainder of the northern Top End during the day.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between CAPE SHIELD and POINT STUART,
including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA. A CYCLONE WATCH extends
southwest to PORT KEATS, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

The next advice will be issued at 5 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#471 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:33 am

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals

wow

#472 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:41 am

23/1333 UTC 11.3S 136.4E T7.5/7.5 MONICA -- South Pacific Ocean

Has there ever been an 8.0? Which is the top of the Dvorak scale.

#473 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:42 am

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT IRNITE
.
APRIL 23 2006 1333Z
.
11.3S 136.4E T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS MONICA (23P)
.
PAST POSITIONS....11.5S 137.7E 23/0233Z VIS
12.1S 138.5E 22/1333Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....VERY IMPRESSIVE AND WELL DEFINED STORM CONTINUES JUST
OFF THE COAST.
WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CMG DEEP CONVECTION PRODUCING A DT=7.5. PAT=7.5 AND MET=7.5.
FINAL-T BASED ON DT..PAT AND MET.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 23/2200Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
WALTER

#474 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:47 am

IT DOESN'T GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS!!!! JUST AMAZING!!!

#475 Postby **terstorm1012** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:31 pm

gorgeous storm----and frightening!

Jim Cantore · #476 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:33 pm

What a beauty what is she at 150kts?

#477 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:37 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:What a beauty what is she at 150kts?

155 KTS.

#478 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:38 pm

Pressure somewhere between 877 and 905 mb.

Jim Cantore · #479 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 12:42 pm

That doesnt look good, 180mph and Wilma like pressure :eek:

#480 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:10 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 163300 UTC
Lat : 11:18:52 S Lon : 135:50:53 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 877.0mb/164.0kt

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22.1km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.8 7.8 8.0 8.0

Eye Temp : +18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.5C

Scene Type : CLEAR EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

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